Monday, July 21, 2014

Tear Fueled Ambition

Normally, the only tears I'm associated with are those I collect from botters and those engaging in buying and selling virtual currency.

ISK buyer tears
But the amount of tears on the forums and in the comment sections of the blogs I read are getting a bit much.  I guess I could take the complainers at face value and believe that a casual manufacturer like me is doomed and that I need to find something else to do in EVE.  Then again, I find it hard to take the complaints of people who will have it so good compared to me after Crius is deployed yesterday very seriously.

Really, folks in high sec, don't expect much sympathy from someone in low sec.  High sec industrialists will have access to teams, which should give them an advantage over a casual low sec manufacturer like myself.  The only advantage I'll have over the high sec industrialist is their belief that low sec players are just in the game for them to exploit, which should still allow a member of the Cult of Reasonable Prices to operate in low sec markets. 

Well, that and the fact I'm willing to bust through a gate camp or two.  Just remember, high sec industrialists.  Forget anything I've written about PvP in low sec declining.  Listen to people like Niden and FunkyBacon.   That post Rixx made about his video card dying?  IT'S A TRAP!!! If you jump into low sec, you will die. Niden, Funky, and Rixx are waiting for you on the other side of that gate.  If they aren't, then someone from one of their alliances is.  Better to just not come into low sec at all.

All right, that last paragraph was a little over the top.  But I think I made my point.  I and low sec carebears like me have to evade and escape from people like Niden, Funky, and Rixx in order to operate.  That right there limits my effectiveness compared to the high sec industrialist.  Teams and having CONCORD protect high sec POS just add to the attraction of operating in high sec.

I seriously considered moving back to high sec.  Quite frankly, with the changes coming tomorrow, staying in low sec is pretty stupid.  But a low sec base is more convenient for my faction ammunition business.  Most of the cost of that is the time I take acquiring loyalty points, not manufacturing. 

With all of the tears flowing from high sec, I figure I'll do something really stupid.  That's right, I'm going to double-down on low.  Can a casual industrialist not only survive, but thrive, in low sec operating against the high sec industrialists and all of the advantages they'll enjoy once Crius goes live.  The only way to really know is to try, right?

25 comments:

  1. I'm with you Noisy! I'm going to continue to operate my small cap building venture in low sec and we'll see how much things change for me.

    Casual Low Sec Producers Unite!

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    1. Umm...you might want to get onto Singularity and have a good hard look at your "small cap building venture".

      I am on Sisi, right now, with my Archon BPO, looking at all the combinations and permutations, and calculating the disastrous changes to the "casual low sec producer".

      I used to build Archons, Thannies, and Moros in Carrou, one jump from high sec. It will be utterly impossible to compete with the big boys starting tomorrow. The wastage on a 1 run job is insurmountable compared to a 3 run job, and that is BEFORE the use of the teams, which will be used by null sec, not low sec.

      And BTW, high sec is even more screwed than anyone else, regardless of what Noisy thinks.

      regards,

      Dinsdale

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    2. How can you even install a 3-run carrier job?

      Regardless, the point is that picking up a faction component assembly array will reduce the material costs of cap components considerably. Coupled with the increased availability and decreased logistical problems of ore (compressed or otherwise) sourced from high sec, there's a case to be made that low-sec cap production is still going to be okay.

      As far as teams go, I guess we'll see how it goes.

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    3. Um. actually that is crap. You will not be able to build a cap in a low sec station and remain profitable. Period.

      Yes you can anchor a POS but have you factored in the cost of a two POSes (one in high sec for compression and one in low for refining/manufacturing) on a small producer?

      Good luck with that.

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  2. I was just thinking about buying a bunch of frigate bpo's now that they will be easier to research and building them locally. I don't even have all of my refinement skills done and I don't care. I can finally fly Prospects as well on two accounts so better ore!

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    1. Finding slots shouldn't have been a problem for someone who frequents low sec molten heath.

      Frigate BPOs are probably a lot faster to research now than after downtime.

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    2. @serpentinelogic - It was still a 10-14 day wait for a ME slot. I wound up just staying in Metropolis.

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    3. I can just toss up a POS to do my research depending. However, the research spots were always taken up. We will see how post Crius prices shake out.

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  3. Noizy - 99% of the complaints are "you've changed the game, I'll have to do something different".

    The fact that margins have been so tight for so long on T1 ships proves that there has been very little risk involved in manufacturing, and for most people it's simply a case of firing up Eve IPH and building what it tells you to. Now there's actually risks and decisions involved in industry is upsetting the "industrialist" players that haven't need to think about what to do in game for a long time. They've been happy to sit back, churn jobs at a large scale taking their few percent profits off the top.

    There are plenty of us out here that think the shake-up is great - it's wonderful that industry is getting a little gameplay, and that CCP want to add risk/reward into the equation for industry. Now I'm not convinced that CCP will get everything absolutely right in this release, but the principles are fine, and CCP seem to be showing willingness to tweak things as necessary. Personally I can't wait until tomorrow!

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  4. Doing casual industry ANYWHERE is unprofitable.
    But you seem to like what you do. I don't know if you earn enough to PLEX your account or not, but you are clearly enjoying the game. So go for it!

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    1. When did the pod people replace Gevlon? Who are they coming for next?

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  5. I don't think you understand what is meant by "casual industry player".

    A casual industry player is someone who plays EVE solely for the purpose of spending a couple of hours, at most, each week to buld and sell stuff. This type of player isn't really interested in flying the ships, doing PVP, running missions, mining, or engaging in any sort of risk vs. reward activity. They simply like the mechanics of building things - sort of like playing with Lego. This is something they do to decompress at the end of a hard day of RL work - ie. they are not trying to get their adrenaline pumping. They play the game while simultaneously watching TV, surfing the web, reading a book or even playing with their kids. None of them ever go to low or null sec. Their "end game" is rather simple - to reach the point where they make enough ISK each month to play for free. They keep score by ISK in wallet, not by KMs.

    There are a lot of these players in high-sec, and many of them have been playing for years. Unfortunately, the Crius changes will shut most of these players down. The profit margins for these players are already very slim, and the Crius buff to null sec alliance industry will pretty much wipe out that margin.

    In addition, the changes are also wiping out years worth of work to gain a slight advantage - grinding sec status to put up POSes, building up their processes, researching BPOs up to get to that last 0.01% profitability - most of them have no interest in starting from scratch again to try to build up some new competitive edge. You would see the same sort of behavior from the PVP players, if CCP decided to reset everyone's missile/gunnery SP to zero.

    However, there really isn't much rage going on - most of them will just quietly leave the game, as their subs run out - just as they have already been doing since the Crius changes were first announced.

    What do you think has caused the recent gradual drop in ACU, anyways? The casual industry players make up a significant percentage of the people who log on every day.

    I'd expect to see a spike in the ACU, over the weekend preceding Crius and for a few days afterwards, as the industrialists log on to close various things down, such as their research POSes. Then, I'd expect to see the gradual drop in ACU continue through to the end of the year, as the PLEX stockpiles of these players run out.

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    1. Actually so far, PCU has decreased. It didn't even reach 40K yesterday. Sunday is the busiest days, so...

      Also, if you're correct about the way industrialists feel, I wouldn't expect them to shut down their stuff. I would expect them to just walk away.

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    2. I believe he is totally right about the way casual industry players feel, many have no intention of playing this new "improved active industry" but will simply let their subs lapse. I know I will.

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  6. I think people are assuming that prices will stay the same after Crius. Based on Today's stuff, sure, margins will vanish. Once the market adjusts, I think you'll see margins tick up a little bit, especially if you're producing outside of highsec. Take for example those people who run lowsec markets that already have a markup over Jita prices. Add in the increased efficiency, and profits should increase a bit. People shipping to highsec from null will have to calculate in fuel costs, which means producing locally will have more appeal, and profit than mass production and shipping. If people play this right, I think there will be money to be made.

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    1. There is no competitve advantages anymore for high-sec only players.

      CCP is removing standings requirements for putting up POSes, allowing POSes to be put up in 0.8-1.0 systems, and putting everyone with BPOs researched only up to ME/PE10 on the same level as those who had BPOs with higher ME/PE..

      The null sec alliances knew about these changes in advance (thanks to a few innocent leaks from certain CSM members, who, ofc, did not personally benefit), and made arrrangements to buy up all of the low research BPOs that were up on contract. They also have been spending the last couple of months researching up every BPO in the game up to ME/PE 10.

      And, most of those new POS towers that are waiting to be anchored and onlined belong to null sec alliance member alts. When Crius goes live, so do they. This will allow them to dominate the auctions for the best industry teams, as well.

      So, null sec industry players will have both the advantages that high sec players used to have, plus all of the advantages of the buff to null sec industry.

      How exactly do you figure that null doesn't automatically win?

      As for low sec industry, don't make me laugh. Anyone who doesn't realize that low sec always gets the shaft from CCP needs to get a white cane and a seeing eye dog.

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    2. I guess you guys didn't realize that with reprocessing taking a big hit, that the price of meta modules are also going to drop by almost 1/2. Meta module prices, due to their ample supply, are almost always based on their reprocessing value.

      This effectively ends any marginal value in building most T1 modules and will likely pull a lot of T2 module prices down, as well.

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    3. @Anon2100 - yes, that is also why mineral prices have been dropping at hubs like Dodie. People are reprocessing their module stockpiles and dumping.

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    4. I spent the weekend re-processing virtually every meta 3 and below module I had, and even some meta 4's. But mineral prices are not just dropping because of people re-processing and then dumping. There is now huge downward structural pressure on min prices because of the ridiculous refining bonuses gifted to null. The creation out of thin air of all those minerals in null sec will far outweigh the reduced supply from the halving of mission based minerals.

      So high sec mining becomes far less profitable, profitable high sec manufacturing just became non-existent with or far more hauling time and risk involved, mission-running income just took a massive hit, and high sec was just hit with an inflationary spike.

      I am wondering if Crius is the final breaking point for high sec. The pressure in Incursion systems will go way up as it is the only profitable thing left in high sec, and the nerf of them is inevitable.

      regards,

      Dinsdale

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    5. Actually, I think that the "gradual drop" from the recent months only shows the departure of a minority of casual industry players who saw that the sky *is* falling (on them) and *knew* that CCP Greyscale (aka CCP FU) wasn't going to change any of his plans, based on any player feedback (he never has before).

      I really expect to see a precipitous drop in both the PCU and sub numbers, as the majority of hopeful (aka wishful thinking) high-sec industry players find out just how bad they have just been screwed by Crius.

      And, I predict that we'll see Chribba's "All time" graph drop below 20,000 before the end of the year.

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  7. I'll continue to produce out of lowsec like I've always done, so I'm with you there Noizy. It's where I feel the most comfortable, hisec feels weird to me, and the only reasons I go into Null anymore are to mine the Rare ores with the Prospect. I've never really done large scale capital building before, so I can't really comment on that, I mostly just make small to midsize ships and the T2 modules, ammo, and drones to go with them.

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  8. Wow, just got on after Crius update. This is one f**ked up release.

    And, I thought that the idea behind this new mini-expansion system was to avoid releasing stuff that wasn't 100% tested and ready to go?

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    1. lol... the estimated price of all BPOs are now 0 ISK.

      I wonder if this was done deliberately by someone at CCP who isn't in Greyscale's camp?

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    2. I liked the 10% off PLEX sale.

      It is like CCP is saying: "Oops, yeah, we know that Seagull and Greyscale f**ked things up - how about we offer a 10% discount if you agree to keep playing anyways?".

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