U.S. Places Tencent On List Of Chinese Military Companies

Sometimes geopolitics doesn't care if all someone wants to do is play video games. Case in point: today's news that the outgoing Biden administration has placed Tencent Holdings, the owners of WeChat, on the U.S. military's list of Chinese military companies.

After a quick search, CNBC had what I thought was the best explanation of what just happened.

The National Defence Authorization Act of 2024 says that the DoD will be prohibited from procuring goods or services directly from entities on the list in June 2026, and indirectly from June 2027.

In response to the decision, Tencent said in a statement that its inclusion on the list was “clearly a mistake.”

“We are not a military company or supplier. Unlike sanctions or export controls, this listing has no impact on our business,” the company added. CATL also called the designation “a mistake” in a response, saying it “is not engaged in any military related activities.”

Tencent has a good chance of managing to secure its exclusion from the list through U.S. courts due to the company’s business model, which primarily revolves around social networking and online gaming, said Ivan Su, senior equity analyst at Morningstar.

Perhaps not, but Tencent shares were down nearly 8% in both Hong Kong and Wall Street following the news.

So why does a blog focusing on MMORPGs care about what the outgoing U.S. administration does? Because unlike World of Warcraft and EVE Online which are published in the People's Republic of China by NetEase, our overlords in Anyang decided to partner with Tencent to publish Black Desert Online in mainland China. Back in August, I noted how swiftly Black Desert Online won approval to operate in the People's Republic once Pearl Abyss switched to Tencent as its Chinese partner: 9 days. 

Now, Pearl Abyss is in much better shape than a lot of other game companies, which are partly or wholly owned by the Chinese tech giant. Those companies include:

Riot Games: In 2011, Tencent went from being Riot's publishing partner to owner. Currently Tencent owns 100% of the League of Legends maker.

Grinding Gear Games: Back in 2018, Tencent picked up an 80% share of the maker of Path of Exile.

Epic Games: The developer of not only Fortnight but Unreal Engine became a partner of Tencent in June 2012, with the Chinese company purchasing 40% of Epic Games. Oh, and did I mention the Epic Games store?

Larian Studios: Yes, I know Baldur's Gate 3 is a single-player RPG. But with Tencent owning a 30% stake, I had to include Larian on the list.

Inclusion on the list does not impose any penalties except for not doing business with the Pentagon, but may open the door for further action if the incoming Trump administration wants to rachet up the on-going trade war between the U.S. and the People's Republic. Usually when it comes to China and video games, I watch what the Chinese bureaucracy does. Now I may have to pay closer attention to Washington D.C. as well. 

Cloud Imperium Is Late With Its 2023 Financial Information

I am sitting in my bunker in an undisclosed location waiting on Cloud Imperium Games to release financial information related to the year 2023. For all of the company's vaunted transparency, CIG does tend to hang onto financial information until any revelations become old news. I guess as long as all investors in the company have the information and CIG isn't hiding information from potential investors, no harm, no foul.

Now comes the "but". But one of the reasons for CIG to post a financial report like it has every year since the first tranche of Calder investment money arrived in 2018 is to make sure potential investors can do their due diligence before making investment plans. I would have stated "every December since 2018," but last year the company waited until 2 January 2024 to post the public financial report for 2022 on its corporate website. And this year CIG will post the information later still.

The year 2023 had a big question. Did Cloud Imperium expand too fast? According to the 2022 financial report, CIG's workforce headcount went from 860 at the end of 2022 to over 1100 at the end of 2023. As best as I can tell, the added labor costs would have added between $21 million and $26 million to CIG's 2023 budget. Add in that cash shop sales in 2023 only increased by $4 million and one has to wonder how much money CIG lost in 2023. After all, in 2022 Cloud Imperium's financial report only showed a profit of $1.3 million.

A conspiracy theorist would jump on the evidence so far and shout to the world Chris Roberts is trying to hide how badly CIG is doing by hiding the evidence from players. I'm not such a theorist, however. I will admit the theory fits Occam's razor in that, all other things being equal, the simplest explanation is usually the best explanation for a phenomenon.

I do have two facts on my side suggesting all other things are not equal. The first is CIG has still not submitted its group of companies accounts with UK Companies House. For the 2022 accounts, CIG did not file until 3 March 2024. The second is the mid-year acquisition of Turbulent for $CA 9.8 million ($USD 7.4 million) plus stocks.

While Occam's razor is a fine principle to live by, many times Hanlon's razor applies. We saw an example last year with the late submission of the 2022 accounts. Turns out, amongst a host of issues, the new auditors found an accounting mistake stretching back 5 years. And honestly, I'm not too surprised at the lateness of the 2023 reports due to the complications the Turbulent sale brought to the situation. If the auditors from PriceWaterhouseCooper are not tearing their hair out trying to explain things to CIG, I'd be surprised. After all, the possibility exists the Calders' put option for both 2025 and 2028 are causing friction and delays.

I do need to conclude with a poke at the creators who may try to excuse publishing the financial data in January as "business as normal." I actually watched a YouTube video where the commentator attempted to tell the audience this. So for my own sanity I will record the publication dates of previous financial reports on CIG's corporate website here, along with handy links to save people, including myself, time.

• Years 2012-2017 - December 20, 2018
• Year 2018 - December 20, 2019
• Year 2019 - December 23, 2020
• Year 2020 - December 22, 2021
• Year 2021 - December 30, 2022
• Year 2022 - January 2, 2024

And while I'm on a history kick, here are the dates going back to 2015 for the submission of accounts to Companies House. The dates are the dates posted to the Companies House website, so the days submitted are usually 5 working days earlier.

• Thru 31 December 2015 - 5 January 2017
• Thru 31 December 2016 - 24 October 2017
• Thru 31 December 2017 - 26 October 2018
• Thru 31 December 2018 - 10 October 2019
• Thru 31 December 2019 - 6 January 2021
• Thru 31 December 2020 - 14 October 2021
• Thru 31 December 2021 - 10 January 2023
• Thru 31 December 2022 - 11 March 2024

And since the time in the UK is now past 6pm on a Friday, I feel pretty safe in posting this article now. So from my bunker in an undisclosed location, I'll keep waiting for the financial information I need to close out 2023.

A Look At EVE Online Activity In December 2024

Another year is in the books. I think EVE Online had a so-so year. While much better than two years ago, 2024 kind of sputtered, with revenue growth coming from the new SKINR system rather than attracting more players to the game. Perhaps I'm wrong and my perceptions of the game are off since nowadays I do more planetary interaction and hauling gameplay than anything else. So let's jump into the latest available statistics and take a look.

First up is Jester's full year graph on average concurrent users. At the end of 2023 the graph showed a rise in the fourth quarter of the year up to around 23,000 ACU. Last year saw the number of accounts logged in hang around the 23,000 mark except during the summer. After a year in which Viridian did very well, the summer slump returned in 2024. And after an expansion bump, the ACU returned to around 23,000 at the end of 2024. The one noticeable difference is that in December 2023 the trend was increasing while at the end of 2024 the trend was decreasing.

Data from Dotlan Maps

Performing a month-over-month comparison, one would hope ship explosions would increase in the first full month after an expansion. The only security band in known space to see an increase was in low sec. First, the decrease in the other two bands might indicate a lack of interest in the new content in Revenant, with some players returning to low sec. Second, perhaps my disinterest in Winter Nexus isn't a minority opinion after all, especially with so many SKINR materials sprinkled throughout the event. And finally, perhaps especially true in null sec, players were taking a break before the big un-bluing of the major coalitions from each other beginning on New Year's Day.

Data from Dotlan Maps

Looking back to December 2023, the trends were increasing everywhere except for killing NPCs in high sec and other players in low security space. With two expansions in 2024 more focused on null sec than anywhere else, the dip in player-owned ship explosions in low sec was expected. But the year-over-year, as well as month-over-month drop in NPC deaths in high sec might indicate an issue or two with this year's Winter Nexus event.

Data from Dotlan Maps

Speaking of looking back in time, what about the explosions for the entire year? As one might expect, numbers of explosions were up across the board except in low sec. While the PvE changes took hold from 18 months of low sec heavy expansions, player ship deaths did drop by 5.5%. Still, the number of NPCs killed by null sec players increased by one-third in 2024 compared to 2023. The downward trends at the end of 2024 are a concern, but just looking at the year as a whole the growth looked good. Or, in other words, we had another year of, "Yeah, but..."

Cloud Imperium Games Records $116.7 Million In Cash Shop Sales For 2024

According to the player-run CCU Game Star Citizen funding dashboard, Cloud Imperium Games earned $774 million in sales through its cash shop at Roberts Space Industries from October 2012 through the end of last year. For 2024, the company recorded $116.7 million, a 0.8% decrease from 2023's total of $117.6 million.

For the month of December, sales increased to $18.7 million, or 122.3%, year-over-year compared to December 2023's total of $8.4 million. In large part, the increase is attributable to a quirk in the calendar. CIG starts its annual Intergalactic Aerospace Expo on the Friday before Black Friday. For 2024, the timing pushed 5 days of sales from November into December. The other reason was the timing of the release of Alpha 4.0. Looking back, a sale was missing in the middle of October, right before CitizenCon. Given the rush to push the release to live servers, I believe the accompanying ship sale was originally supposed to occur the week before CitizenCon in order to increase sales for that event.

The fourth quarter of 2024 saw cash shop sales reach $48.2 million. While the second largest quarterly total in company history, the amount resulted in a 6.4% YoY revenue decline compared to Q4 2023's $51.5 million. Two of CIG's biggest sales events, the IAE and CitizenCon both occur in the fourth quarter. Both events saw revenue fall year-over-year, the IAE for the first time since 2014. 

I do wonder how much announcements at CitizenCon affected CIG's financial performance during the fourth quarter. First, Squadron 42 was announced to release sometime in 2026 instead of 2025 which most people probably expected. The second was the revelation that the 1.0 version of Star Citizen will resemble EVE Online a lot more than a lot of existing players expected. While to this EVE Online player the movement of Star Citizen becoming a full-loot, hardcore PvP sandbox MMORPG was pretty clear, the presentation at CitizenCon made the company's design goals unmistakable as anything else. Finally, the announcement that Star Citizen 1.0 would not include AI crews for multi-crew ships. The player-base includes a lot of people who want to fly their ships solo. Given the 1.0 release is probably at least 5 years away, I can see a lot of primarily solo players ceasing to purchase the multi-crew ships, which tend to be the most expensive in Star Citizen.

For those who keep track of new accounts (aka "new citizens"), December's 45,937 was only 2% less than the total of 46.897 in December 2023. For the quarter, CIG attracted the creation of 138,209 new accounts, a 19.5% decrease over Q4 2023's total of 171,771. For the entire year of 2024, account generation was down 28.4%, with 484,271 accounts vs last year's number of 676,560.

The $774 million displayed on the Roberts Space Industries funding page is not a comprehensive accounting for all of CIG's revenue since the project's Kickstarter in October 2012. Overall, the company has recorded $872.6 million in confirmed revenue (the funding page & the 2022 financial report).

• Sales/Pledges: $774.0 million (through 31 December 2024)
• Subscriptions: $33.0 million (through 31 December 2022)
• All other sources: $65.6 million (through 31 December 2022)

In addition, the company has received a total of $63.25 million in outside investment. According to the 2022 financial report, $4.8 million of the amount was returned to investors in 2020. Including the outside investment money, the total amount raised by CIG to create Squadron 42 and Star Citizen is $935.8 million, or $931.0 million when excluding the returned funds.

Finally, I need to make a point for this last post about Cloud Imperium's cash shop revenue for 2024. I realize the subscription and all other source revenue totals are now two years out of date. The reason is CIG has, as of 1830 UTC on 1 January 2025, not released the financial report for 2023. When giving the amount of revenue collected, I only want to use original source material from Cloud Imperium and no estimates. Hopefully the report will appear on the Cloud Imperium corporate site soon so I may start the reporting for 2025 with up to date data showing the company closing in on $1 billion in revenue. Barring a catastrophe, CIG should reach that mark sometime in 2025.

Spotify's Top 20 Final Fantasy XIV Orchestrion Rolls - Spots 1-5

I love the music in Final Fantasy XIV. Over Thanksgiving I went down the rabbit hole looking for FFXIV music on Spotify to create a playlist or two. I found more FFXIV albums than I knew existed and none of them contain Dawntrail music. I also discovered that 43 songs had more than 1 million streams, with 20 of them listened to over 2 million times.

With 600 orchestrion rolls available in-game and another 118 rolls in existence through seasonal events, the online store and in bonus content, a lot of music is available to fill the 8 slots available for players to put in the orchestration lists to play in inns and housing. So I got the idea to list the most popular music in FFXIV and how to obtain the orchestrion rolls. Due to including YouTube videos, I'll divide the list into 4 posts, with 5 songs per post. I'll also list the number of times streamed as recorded on 1 December 2024.

Spots 5 down to 1:

5. Heavensward - 3,939,810

Album: Heavensward
Expansion: Heavensward patch 3.4
Obtained from: The online store ($3)

The Heavensward orchestrion roll is the only one solely obtainable from the online cash store. One of the themes for the Heavensward expansion (and trailer), the roll was available in-game as a reward for completing the 2016 version of The Rising anniversary event. Seasonal event items, including orchestrion rolls, show up in the cash shop one year after their initial appearance in the game. I should add that cash shop only orchestrion rolls do exist but are usually different versions of the original game OSTs.

4. A Long Fall - 4,098,737

Album: Shadowbringers
Expansion: Shadowbringers patch 5.0
Obtained from: random drop in the final boss chest of The Twinning.

The song from the Shadowbringers The Twinning dungeon is perhaps best known for one of Final Fantasy XIV's most famous memes. The song probably saw a resurgence on Spotify when The Primals recreated the meme with backup dancers at the Digital Fanfest in 2021.

As suggested in the music video, A Long Fall is the theme music for the dungeon The Twinning, an optional dungeon available in patch 5.0. 

3. Dragonsong - 4,151,605 

Album: Heavensward
Expansion: Heavensward patch 3.3
Obtained by: Completing the MSQ quest Litany of Peace.

Labeled the main theme of the Heavensward expansion, the song is the first of two on the list featuring the vocals of Susan Calloway. I think the popularity of the song is not only due to the talents of the musicians and composer Nobuo Uematsu, but its use in telling the story as well. The music playing in the final cutscenes with Nidhogg added to the scene, making the aftermath of the fight so emotional for many players.

2. Answers - 4,696,927

Albums: Before Meteor, Endwalker

Expansion: Heavensward patch 3.2
Obtained by:  Level 60 Alchemist with Faded Copy of Thunderer, Faded Copy of Rise of the White Raven, and Faded Copy of Answers, dropped in The Binding Coil of Bahamut - Turn 5, The Second Coil of Bahamut - Turn 4, and The Final Coil of Bahamut - Turn 4.

The song most new players run into early in their days playing Final Fantasy XIV, the orchestrion roll is labeled as the theme to A Realm Reborn. But the song made its debut in the final cutscene of the original Final Fantasy XIV as the Battle of Carteneau raged, ending the Sixth Astral Era and ushering in the Seventh Umbral Era. 

The song returned in A Realm Reborn, 21 months after the original game shut down and 5 years later in the game's lore. All players learn of the Battle of Carteneau with the full details revealed to those who complete the raid series The Coils of Bahamut.

And when the writers needed to explain the beginning of our current world in Endwalker, they returned to the powerful combination of composer Nobuo Uematsu, female vocalist Susan Calloway, and a male chorus. If any song is iconic to Final Fantasy XIV, I would reply, "Answers."

1. Shadowbringers - 6,149,482

Album: Shadowbringers
Expansion: Shadowbringers patch 5.0
Obtained by: Completing the quest The Syrcus Trench

The main theme for Shadowbringers, the orchestrion roll is obtained by completing the first main storyline quest in the expansion. I think the song is the most popular on the list because Shadowbringers was not only the most popular expansion, but the best as well. I'm going to conclude this list by mentioning the contributors to the song.

First is composer Masayoshi Soken. Born in Mexico, Soken has served as the sound director for Final Fantasy XIV since the 1.0 days. While composing much of the music, an illness to Nobuo Uematsu resulted in Soken writing the expansion's theme. Up until Shadowbringers, Uematsu had written each expansion's theme music. He formed up and plays lead guitar for the game's in-house band, The Primals. Perhaps unsurprisingly, The Primals have three albums up on Spotify. And for those who've played Final Fantasy XIV, perhaps it comes as no surprise that his favorite bands are Rage Against The Machine and Pennywise.

Surprisingly, Shadowbringers is the only song on the list sung by the lead female vocalist, Amanda Achen. Another song from Shadowbringers, Tomorrow and Tomorrow, just missed the list while Endwalker's Flow hadn't been listened to one million times at the time I compiled the list.

The male singer, Jason Charles (J.C.) Miller has a longer history with Final Fantasy XIV as the original English voice actor for Raubahn in A Realm Reborn. He also did voice work for Final Fantasy Type-0 HD, Mobius Final Fantasy, and Final Fantasy VII Remake. In addition to the Shadowbringers' theme, Miller sang To The Edge, the theme for The Seat of Sacrifice and the final fight in patch 5.3. In Endwalker, Miller sang Close in the Distance, the Ultima Thule zone music and background music to a memorable walk by the Warrior of Light on their way to the final confrontation in Endwalker.

And hungrychad. - I want to finish with a shout-out to hungrychad, who from my searching had done more for FFXIV karaoke than anyone else, at least in the English-speaking world. I really like their videos and would encourage people to make the channel the first place to look for FFXIV music videos.

Spotify's Top 20 Final Fantasy XIV Orchestrion Rolls - Spots 6-10

I love the music in Final Fantasy XIV. Over Thanksgiving I went down the rabbit hole looking for FFXIV music on Spotify to create a playlist or two. I found more FFXIV albums than I knew existed and none of them contain Dawntrail music. I also discovered that 43 songs had more than 1 million streams, with 20 of them listened to over 2 million times.

With 600 orchestrion rolls available in-game and another 118 rolls in existence through seasonal events, the online store and in bonus content, a lot of music is available to fill the 8 slots available for players to put in the orchestration lists to play in inns and housing. So I got the idea to list the most popular music in FFXIV and how to obtain the orchestrion rolls. Due to including YouTube videos, I'll divide the list into 4 posts, with 5 songs per post. I'll also list the number of times streamed as recorded on 1 December 2024.

Spots 10 down to 6:

10. Invincible ("Who Brings Shadow") - 2,878,415

Album: Shadowbringers
Expansion: Shadowbringers patch 5.1
Obtained from: Crafted by Level 80 Alchemist with Faded Copy of Invincible, dropped in The Minstrel's Ballad: Hades's Elegy.

Known by some as the song with "Riding Home", the scroll was a bit more complicated to find than most. The theme for phase 2 of the boss fight in The Dying Grasp, the song is known as "Who Brings Shadow" on both Spotify and YouTube. The song is also known as Hades Theme to even complicate things further. But when the subject is Emet-Selch, is anything simple? And when engaged in the final fight, the song fits the epicness of the fight as well.

9. Locus - 2,972,193

Album: Heavensward
Expansion: Heavensward patch 3.4
Obtained from: Completing the quest Of Endings and Beginnings.

The highest ranked of the Alexander raid scrolls on the list, Locus is listed in the minor boss theme category. One of four orchestrion scrolls awarded for completing Of Endings and Beginnings, players may recognize the song for the "falling back" lyrics. I do wonder if the Alexander raid music received a resurgence in popularity due to the presence of Alexandria in Dawntrail. A different Alexandria I'm told, but who ultimately knows?

8. Oblivion - 3,147,859

Album: Before the Fall
Expansion: Heavensward patch 3.4
Obtained from: Crafted by Level 50 Alchemist with Faded Copy of Oblivion, dropped in The Akh Afah Amphitheatre (Extreme).

Oblivion is the most popular song off the Before the Fall album on Spotify. Also known as Shiva's Theme, Oblivion plays during the second phase of The Akh Afah Amphitheatre (Hard) introduced during A Realm Reborn's 2.4 post-patch. The list I have, however, states the scroll wasn't available until patch 3.4, which was in the Heavensward expansion. The materials to make the orchestrion roll drop in the extreme version of the trial. A fun fact is the MSQ version of The Akh Afah Amphitheatre is labeled as "Hard", but no normal version exists. At least as far as I know.

7. Fiend - 3,170,409

Album: The Far Edge of Fate
Expansion: Heavensward patch 3.2
Obtained from: Crafted by Level 60 Alchemist with Faded Copy of Fiend, dropped in Containment Bay S1T7 (Extreme).

A song compared to Powerman 5000's When World's Collide, the song is the most popular off The Far Edge of Fate. The battle music for the second phase of Containment Bay S1T7, the song is also known as Sephirot's Theme. The first trial in the Warring Triad raid series, those who miss the music at level 60 will get a second chance to go back and run the trail if they want to do The Hero's Journey at the end of Shadowbringers.

6. Wayward Daughter - 3,473,914

Album: Stormblood
Expansion: Stormblood patch 4.3
Obtained from: Crafted by Level 70 Alchemist with Faded Copy of Under the Moonlight, dropped in The Minstrel's Ballad: Tsukuyomi's Pain.

The music for the final phase of Castrum Fluminis boss fight, Wayward Daughter (aka Tsukuyomi's Theme) is a good way to end the Stormblood MSQ before the story takes the player to Shadowbringers. The most popular Stormblood song on Spotify as of 1 December 2024, I believe the contrast between the female vocalist singing in Japanese and the male vocalist in English helps sell the song, along with the conclusion of the story of a villain some found sympathetic. Although I still like Fordola more.

Spotify's Top 20 Final Fantasy XIV Orchestrion Rolls - Spots 11-15

I love the music in Final Fantasy XIV. Over Thanksgiving I went down the rabbit hole looking for FFXIV music on Spotify to create a playlist or two. I found more FFXIV albums than I knew existed and none of them contain Dawntrail music. I also discovered that 43 songs had more than 1 million streams, with 20 of them listened to over 2 million times.

With 600 orchestrion rolls available in-game and another 118 rolls in existence through seasonal events, the online store and in bonus content, a lot of music is available to fill the 8 slots available for players to put in the orchestration lists to play in inns and housing. So I got the idea to list the most popular music in FFXIV and how to obtain the orchestrion rolls. Due to including YouTube videos, I'll divide the list into 4 posts, with 5 songs per post. I'll also list the number of times streamed as recorded on 1 December 2024.

Spots 15 down to 11:

15. What Angel Wakes Me - 2,253,713

Album: Shadowbringers
Expansion: Shadowbringers patch 5.0
Obtained from: Crafted by Level 80 Alchemist with Faded Copy of What Angel Wakes Me, dropped in The Dancing Plague (Extreme).

I wasn't sure if the song annoyed more players than it brought joy. Also known as Titania's Theme or The Dancing Plague Theme, What Angel Wakes Me is the boss music for the final boss in the level 73 dungeon The Dancing Plague. Given the trial is set in the faerie kingdom of Il Mheg, the music fits with the overall aesthetics of the zone.

The music video above is one of hungrychad's karaoke-style videos 

14. Insatiable - 2,269,234

Album: Shadowbringers
Expansion: Shadowbringers patch 5.05
Obtained from: Teleportation portal for Treasure Hunt: The Dungeons of Lyhe Ghiah randomly spawns after the completion of a Timeworn Zonureskin Map.

While Mekkah Dee's video shows the final boss fight in Holminster Switch, Insatiable is used in several boss fights throughout the Shadowbringers expansion's levelling dungeons. While a personal take, the song's title refers to the sin eaters insatiable appetite for aether obtained from living beings.

The orchestration roll is a drop from The Dungeons of Lyhe Ghiah, an instance accessible through Timeworn Zonureskin Maps. These maps are obtained from level 80 mature trees, lush vegetation patches, mineral deposits, rocky outcrops, and fishing holes. Or, for those who hate gathering, from the market board.

13. Rise - 2,412,408

Album: The Far Edge of Fate
Expansion: Heavensward patch 3.4
Obtained by: Completing the quest: Judgment Day.

Another song from the Heavensward expansion's Alexander raid series, the orchestrion roll is obtained by completing the quest to unlock the 12th and final boss, Alexander Prime. The song plays during the second phase of the Alexander fight.

Players unfamiliar with the song's title might know the music from the first words, "Sonic Boom".

12. Endwalker - Footfalls - 2,447,942

Album: Endwalker
Expansion: Endwalker patch 6.0
Obtained from: Completing the final quest of the Endwalker expansion, Endwalker.

Endwalker - Footfalls is the main theme of the Endwalker expansion. For the video, hungrychad just had to overlay his karaoke-style lyrics over the final Endwalker trailer. Sometimes I just don't have a lot to say about an orchestrion roll except listen to it.

11. Neath Dark Waters - 2,724,875

Album: Shadowbringers
Expansion: Shadowbringers patch 5.1
Obtained from: Goushs Ooan in The Ondo Cups for 350 Bicolor Gemstones after achieving Shared FATEs Rank 2 in The Tempest.

Sometimes a scene pops up in a video game that makes your jaw drop. Add in the proper music and the moment becomes memorable. That's the only way I can describe the overworld theme for Amaurot. Separate from the duty of the same name, the city of Amaurot players see in The Tempest is something from the mind of perhaps Final Fantasy XIV's greatest villain, Emet-Selch.

Spotify's Top 20 Final Fantasy XIV Orchestion Rolls - Spots 16-20

I love the music in Final Fantasy XIV. Over Thanksgiving I went down the rabbit hole looking for FFXIV music on Spotify to create a playlist or two. I found more FFXIV albums than I knew existed and none of them contain Dawntrail music. I also discovered that 43 songs had more than 1 million streams, with 20 of them listened to over 2 million times.

With 600 orchestrion rolls available in-game and another 118 rolls in existence through seasonal events, the online store and in bonus content, a lot of music is available to fill the 8 slots available for players to put in the orchestration lists to play in inns and housing. So I got the idea to list the most popular music in FFXIV and how to obtain the orchestrion rolls. Due to including YouTube videos, I'll divide the list into 4 posts, with 5 songs per post. I'll also list the number of times streamed as recorded on 1 December 2024.

Spots 20 down to 16:

20. Crumbling Lies (Front) - 2,038,993

Album: Death Unto Dawn
Expansion: Shadowbringers patch 5.2
Obtained from: Completing the quest One Way To Do It. 

Crumbling Lies (Front) is a cutscene theme from the YoRHa: Dark Apocalypse raid series in Shadowbringers. The raid series was a cross-over collaboration with the team from PlatinumGames, makers of Nier: Automata. The YoRHa: Dark Apocalypse questline offers several orchestration rolls, with Crumbling Lies available before reaching The Puppet's Bunker.

I should also add that the song was the only one in which I could not find a player-made video featuring the music.

19. Exponential Entropy - 2,059,108

Album: The Far Edge of Fate
Expansion: Heavensward patch 3.4
Obtained from: Completing the quest Thus Spake Quickthinx.

For those who don't recognize the title, this is the "Forward and Back" song from the Alexander raid series at the end of Heavensward. The music also plays from the Cruise Chaser mount available in the FFXIV cash shop. 

The quest unlocks the 11th of the 12 bosses of the series in addition to the orchestrion roll. The video is was created by hungrychad, a prolific creator of karaoke-style videos.

18. Sultana Dreaming - 2,093,047

Album: A Realm Reborn
Expansion: Heavensward patch 3.3
Obtained from: Purchased from Roarich in Ul'dah - Steps of Nald (10.6, 9.5) for 5000 gil.

Sultana Dreaming is the night theme for the starting city of Ul'dah. While the OST was introduced in A Realm Reborn, the orchestion roll was not introduced into the game until the Heavensward expansion with the rest of the starting city zone music.

Each of the starting cities from A Realm Reborn have day and night themes, with Sultana Dreaming the most popular of the 6 tunes on Spotify. The song takes on a whole different meaning by the end of A Realm Reborn, which might account for the tunes popularity on Spotify. Also, I believe the orchestrion roll is the only one on the list available for purchase for gil from a vendor.

17. Triumph - 2,130,808

Album: Stormblood
Expansion: Stormblood patch 4.2
Obtained from: Purchased from the Gold Saucer Attendant in the Gold Saucer for 50,000 MGP.

The stirring boss theme from Stormblood's levelling dungeons, Triumph is one of those songs that wakes a player up before going into a fight. At least, that's the way I felt when I recently went into The Sirensong Sea and faced the final boss, Lorelei. For those wondering, Lorelei is the first boss pictured in Mekkah Dee's video above.

16. The Worm's Tail - 2,201,437

Album: Stormblood
Expansion: Stormblood patch 4.1
Obtained from: Crafted by Level 70 Alchemist (Master Alchemist V) with Faded Copy of The Worm's Tail, dropped in The Minstrel's Ballad: Shinryu's Domain

The song is often cited as Shinru's Theme, but is played during the second phase of The Royal Menagerie. The final trial of Stormblood 6.0, the material needed to craft the orchestrion roll comes from the advanced version of the 8-character trial. Shinryu is not permanently defeated in this trial and makes another appearance in Endwalker.

My Predictions for 2025

Since I made some pretty bad predictions for 2024, I thought I should go back and look at how I did. Then, to prove my insanity, I'll make some predictions for the upcoming year of 2025. Maybe I'll do better?

EVE Online - At least I got my first prediction correct: a volcano did not destroy CCP's new offices in Reykjavik. But for those thinking the prediction was guaranteed, a volcano did destroy parts of the famous Blue Lagoon geothermal spa in November.

From here through, the predictions turned bad. Instead of continuing the improvement of low sec, CCP launched two expansions aimed at null security space, Equinox and Revenant.  Thus. the prediction of low sec witnessing more players killed than in null sec was a bust. Still, given all the complaining from null sec players, perhaps CCP would have received a better return on investment by continuing to focus on low sec.

I did use Project Awakening, now known as EVE Frontier, as a reason for ship development in EVE Online. I think I can safely say that did not happen. Instead we received four new industrial ships for EDENCON along with a destroyer and battlecruiser for Deathless Circle. 

Now for some predictions. First, CCP will realize the futility of creating null sec focused expansions and the spring will wind up as a hodge-podge of ideas again. Also, at the beginning of the expansion CCP will conduct another event with EVE Vanguard trying to incorporate itself with null sec play. The experiment will receive a horrible reaction from null sec players, ending the developers' efforts to improve null sec play. And with the realization, much rejoicing will come from player-owned null.

In the winter expansion, the developers will turn their attentions once again to The Deathless. The new pirate faction will receive three new ship types: frigate, cruiser, and logisticis cruiser. That's right, I see the Deathless Circle receiving the Triglavian treatment and getting Tech II ships in its ship tree. I think a Deathless Circle version of the Marshal is a bit much to expect in 2025.

EVE Vanguard - I'll admit I'm a bit confused about the development of CCP's latest attempt at a first person shooter. I'll count my prediction that EVE Vanguard did not go into a continuous alpha ala Star Citizen as true. I'll also count my prediction of the overlords in Anyang bringing up the game on an investor call as correct.

Vanguard will have a roller coaster year. On the plus side the game will enter beta sometime this year, probably during a favorable playtest in November or December. On the minus side, the complaints about CCP ruining null sec logistics for the inferior Equinox sov system (why couldn't they keep Fozzie Sov?!) will shut down development in that area for some time.

EVE Frontier (formerly Project Awakening) - The silence wasn't as deafening about EVE Frontier than I anticipated. I didn't expect any solid news about the title until November or December. Instead, CCP kicked off the announcement of the title's name in September and Closed Alpha in December.

As I am part of the Closed Alpha, I am under an NDA so cannot really make any game-related predictions. I feel confident enough though to predict another round of venture capital funding for the game. And since CCP has openly discussed the future of the Carbon game engine, I'll go ahead and predict the company will announce how Frontier tech has wound up in Online. Not a far-out prediction given both games use the same engine. Oh, and going open source doesn't count.

EVE: Galaxy Conquest - I thought the game would not release in 2024 due to actions of the Chinese government. I'll give myself a little credit for backing away from a no release in 2024 to a world-wide release outside China in Q4. The game was released on 29 October, so I got that part kind of correct. I couldn't tell if the game released in China yet.

Crowd Control Productions - I'm pretty sure some people in Reykjavik are waiting for this section, since I was wrong. Not about the game development part. I predicted CCP would have a good year developing games in 2024 and I count that prediction as true. Where I failed is revenue. I predicted a so-so year of revenue remaining between plus or minus 2-3% of 2023's. Instead. through the first three quarters of 2024 revenue was up year-over-year by 8.8%. I consider that a miss.

I still believe 2025 is the year CCP will fully see the fruits of their hard work in 2024. First, the big prediction. The games in the EVE franchise will meet the goal set by the overlords in Anyang of ₩20 billion each quarter in 2025. For the year, I expect 10% revenue growth, up to ₩90 billion, or $64 million. Due to currency fluctuations, the two figures may not match.

Black Desert Online - I made a prediction and just based on Pearl Abyss' investor calls, I'll go out on a limb and say I was correct about this year's expansion, Land of the Morning Light: Seoul not doing as well as 2023's Land of the Morning Light. I'm not even sure what was released this year counts as a real expansion or just a continuation of the effort in 2023.

The only prediction I'll make about BDO is the game makes a lot of "sickest MMORPG" lists in the gaming media as I expect another 10% decline in revenue from all platforms in 2025, down to around ₩215 billion.

Crimson Desert - A stopped clock is correct twice a day, which is how I feel about my predictions for Crimson Desert. Last year I predicted that while the game would not release in 2024, Pearl Abyss would make an announcement of a release occurring sometime during the first half of 2025. I also expected the ability to pre-order the game sometime at the end of 2024. That didn't happen either.

The game appears close to release, but after so many false starts, I'll repeat last year's prediction and just change the years. Watch for Pearl Abyss to announce a release date of the first half of 2026 sometime in November. Also, I see pre-orders for the game going on sale in either November or December of 2025.

Pearl Abyss - Thankfully I was too pessimistic about Pearl Abyss last year. The predicted 10% revenue decline was only 1% through the first three quarters of 2024. The predicted 12-15% decline in Black Desert revenue wound up at only a 6% decline. But all wasn't good news. Operating losses year-over-year increased from ₩10.9 billion to ₩14.4 billion over the first 3 quarters of 2024, partially justifying my concerns over the financial state of the South Korean video game maker.

Despite the performance of CCP Games, I don't see a good year ahead for Pearl Abyss. Beginning operations in the People's Republic of China this year will help, but I still see Black Desert revenue falling 5% due to the continuing decline of Black Desert Mobile. I'll go out on a limb and say Pearl Abyss will turn both net and operating profits in 2025.

Star Citizen - I think I was mostly correct about all the goodwill from CitizenCon dissipating by the middle of the year. Where I was wrong, however, was about server meshing. Right before the developers left for their Christmas break, they released a version of Alpha 4.0 on live "preview" servers. From watching Star Citizen content creators, the version is actually Alpha 4.0 Lite. But officially I need to call the prediction wrong, even if some creative use of language was utilized.

I think I can make a couple of predictions. First, the 3.24 version of the game still on live servers will not be taken down until sometime in the summer (June, July, August). I even expect the 3.24 version to receive a patch or 2, if only for ship sales. Next, dynamic server meshing will not appear anytime in 2025. And finally, the third planet due up for deployment, Nyx, will also not see the live servers in 2025.

Squadron 42 - Last year I fell for Chris Roberts' hyping up of Squadron 42 as "feature complete" at CitizenCon 2023. So I was wrong about predicting a 2025 launch with a corresponding influx of revenue from pre-orders in 2024. Instead of announcing a 2025 date for the release of SQ42 at CitizenCon, Roberts announced sometime in 2026. At least I got the CitizenCon announcement of a date correct, right?

With a release date sometime in 2026, I don't have anything to predict for 2025, right? Wrong. Cloud Imperium still needs to find a Chinese publisher if the company wants to sell the game in the People's Republic. So at CitizenCon, I predict Roberts will announce the Chinese publisher. I think the choice is obvious: TenCent.

Cloud Imperium Games - Last year I made three predictions about the company, all of which were incorrect. The first was that cash shop revenue, the number displayed on the funding page, would hit $123.5 million for the year. Currently an outside chance exists sales will equal 2023's $117.6 million although the likelihood is the company will fall $1 million short. While a less than 1% shortfall isn't bad, I predicted a 5% increase.

The second prediction was that CIG would surpass Pearl Abyss in the size of each company's workforce. At the time I made the prediction, CIG had over 1100 employees and Pearl Abyss was down under 1300. Since then, CIG engaged in a workforce reduction of 100-150 employees and Pearl Abyss added about 50.

Finally, I predicted CIG would receive another round of funding. As far as we currently know, no such funding round occurred. Which probably explains why we are hearing rumors of additional layoffs among the QA staff in Manchester.

I'll try to make three predictions for CIG in 2025.

1. Cash shop revenue will drop to $113 million. Despite my belief the two big ship sales, Invictus and IAE, will combine for $46.8 million in 2023, I still think reduced sales the rest of the year will result in a 3.5% year-over-year drop.

2. The amount of new accounts created will drop 15% compared to 2024. The last two years have really seen a huge drop-off in the number of new accounts created to play Star Citizen. With no Squadron 42 to attract fans until 2026, I think the decline continues but slows, with 408,000 new accounts created to play Star Citizen.

3. Cloud Imperium will close down its Los Angeles office. Roberts announced that game development had left the location in 2024 due to a restructuring. I know that Roberts affinity for the film industry makes the idea of CIG leaving Los Angeles hard to believe, but the high cost of doing business in California may lead to the change. Plus, Henry Cavill lives in London, so filming in the UK would be easier for him.

4. Tencent will get a 5-10% stake in Cloud Imperium. I'm waiting on CIG's 2023 financial report so I don't have a real good idea on CIG's spending over the past two years. I am guessing that CIG can't attract venture capital funding so the next best thing is getting money from a big publisher. Tencent fits the bill. Did I mention Tencent also likes picking up little stakes in lots of companies it thinks will do well?

Final Fantasy XIV - And last but not least is Final Fantasy XIV. I got a lot of predictions right last year. The game earned a lot of credit for handling launch traffic well along with the graphics upgrade. And there is also a lot of doom and gloom about the franchise with at least content creators complaining about how bad the Dawntrail expansion was and is.

I was wrong about World of Warcraft impacting Dawntrail's launch as The War Within didn't launch until 26 August, or almost 2 months after the launch of the Dawntrail early launch on 28 June. I was also wrong about both new housing and the cosmic exploration content as neither reached the live servers during 2024. In fact, Dawntrail probably will not new a new housing zone until patch 8.1 in 2026 with players having to settle for the expanded interiors coming to housing in 2025.

So what do I think is in-store for FFXIV in 2025? First, with the next expansion due to release sometime in the summer of 2026 I expect the first fanfest to occur in November, right before the release of patch 7.4. Either at Fanfest or as part of the MSQ in patch 7.4, players will discover the next expansion will have players continue to search for treasure in the frozen waters of Blindfrost, which is north of the continent of Othard. Yes, I think we're returning to the east to visit Doma once again.

Finally I will repeat one of last year's predictions hoping I was just a year early. When cosmic exploration finally comes out I expect the feature to resemble housing more than island sanctuary did. I do think we will also see a restoration project in Garlemald at least teased sometime during the year if not in patch 7.4.

Cloud Imperium Makes $2 Million On The First Day Of Star Citizen's Alpha 4.0

Work was crazy this week and limited my blogging. But I had to make note of an event that occurred in Star Citizen: the launch of Alpha 4.0 yesterday.

Daily Sales From The Roberts Space Industries Website

In a Letter from the Chairman, Cloud Imperium founder and CEO Chris Roberts spelled out exactly what the launch looked like.

After a much longer than anticipated development process, what was teased in 2019 becomes a reality for all players when we launch Star Citizen Alpha 4.0 to the live servers, as part of what we are calling the 4.0 Preview.  

For the first time in our history, we will run 2 live releases in parallel, each with their own progress and persistence. This means you'll have the unique opportunity to choose which version you want to dive into, at least for a little while. At this stage, we both want and need the high traffic of a Live release to thoroughly test Server Meshing and the newly refactored systems that rely on it as they go through their final paces. We acknowledge that we did not have time to get all the mission types working before our holiday break, which is why we have decided to temporarily support two parallel Live tracks: Alpha 3.24.3 will remain available, so you can play the missions and engage in game loops that are not working to our new playability standards in 4.0. Meanwhile, the 4.0 Preview will also be accessible from your launcher as a second Live option. If you are not interested in previewing 4.0, you can simply select Alpha 3.24.3 from the dropdown and continue enjoying the current live build.  

This may feel like our usual PTU process, but there is one key difference: by running both builds on the Live environment, we can take steps to ensure that your progress on 4.0 will carry over. Our goal is for anything you do and earn in the 4.0 Preview to persist without any further wipes—unless something major happens, though we do not anticipate that.

That said, it's important to note that progress made in Alpha 3.24.3 will remain tied to that version and will not transfer to 4.0. This allows us to maintain a clean slate for the new systems coming online in the 4.0 Preview, ensuring a consistent and stable environment as we look to deprecate 3.24.3 in the new year.

Honestly, I'm not sure how much of a launch yesterday was. But one thing I know is CIG always runs a ship sale when a patch launches. Back in October I thought CIG removed a ship sale. Looking back I have the feeling Alpha 4.0 was supposed to release in the middle of October a week before CitizenCon.

With the launch of Alpha 4.0 came a 17-ship sale in the cash shop. And on the first day CIG brought in $1,988,088. As of the time of the screenshot at the beginning of the post, cash shop revenue was up to $111.5 million for 2024, or $6.1 million short of 2023's sales. With 10 days to go, CIG still has an outside shot of matching last year's total.

I should add one additional piece of information from the Letter to the Chairman. Chris Roberts revealed the servers hosted 32 million hours of play time this year. Converting to average concurrent users, the Star Citizen servers averaged 3700 players flying or running around at any time. In comparison, over the past year EVE Online has averaged around 23,000 users logged in at any one time. Given CIG has experienced twice the sales of CCP Games over the last few years, I was a little surprised at how small the Star Citizen player base really is.