What Will Star Citizen 1.0 Look Like?

Over the weekend Cloud Imperium Games held it's annual CitizenCon event in Manchester, England. Celebrating the 12th anniversary of the launch of the Kickstarter for Squadron 42 and Star Citizen, Heading into the project's 13th year, the company is facing some financial challenges. Cash shop sales over the last two years are apparently not keeping up with development expenses. CIG's North American studios underwent a significant workforce reduction at the beginning of 2024. And on day 1 of the convention, CIG founder and CEO Chris Roberts announced the company's single player game, Squadron 42, would not release until sometime in 2026. Unless otherwise noted, such a date usually indicates a release sometime in December 2026.

Into this environment CIG dropped its final presentation of the event, "The Stars My Destination: Star Citizen 1.0". The presentation spelled out what CIG considered the minimum viable product to release for commercial sale. Well, for sale without the development labels "alpha" or "beta". An outstanding question for years, what will the game deliver upon commercial release? 

First off, once the game is commercially launched, the company is promising improved performance, a polished experience, finished gameplay loops, and no more server resets. If a previously mentioned piece of content, feature, or star system is not present in the 1.0 release, the developers will add it in future patches. In other words, pretty standard stuff players expect from a game.

The presentation addressed a big issue from the original Kickstarter, the number of systems in Star Citizen at launch. According the the various stretch goals, the number originally was 100. Senior game director Richard Tyrer explained why the planned number of systems changed.

... the star systems of old are not the star systems of today. They were based on the Privateer and Freelancer model. They were unexplorable planets with an isolated and small landing zone and had automated landings ... and we all know how that went.

To give you an idea Stanton had four points of interest (POI) and the entire 100 systems only had 90 POIs. Compare that to Stanton today and we have 1626 points of interest. And that is going to be dwarfed once we start using the Starchitect tool you saw yesterday. 

The game will launch with 5 star systems. One system is already known to players: Stanton. The next planet will arrive with Alpha 4.0: Pyro. Sometime later, the 3-planet Nyx system which the developers have worked on in the past will show up in the 'verse. The final two systems are Castra (two planets) and Terra (four planets).

The game is going to launch with a main story to help players learn about the game. The game will introduce players not only to the types of gameplay but to the NPC guilds as well. For those who play EVE Online, the system sounds very much like the tutorial, career agent, and opportunity systems in that game, including the reputation grinds. A difference, though, is the presence of location stories. These missions will help add lore and character to the locations in the world.

The game will also have a full mission system based on NPC guilds. These guilds have agents with whom the player will interact. The game also has two guilds which engage in PvP and are in conflict with each other. 

The economy will be based on the StarSim (formerly known as Quantum) system. The system is described as dynamic and will automatically adjust the in-game prices based on player activity, so a functioning StarSim is an absolute requirement for a commercial release of Star Citizen.

Something the developers had to address is how ship insurance would work. Tyrer announced during the presentation.

We'll have three tiers of insurance with level one being chassis insurance, level two chassis and component insurance, and level three chassis, component and decorations insurance. Now insurance by itself will only pay out credits based on the wear and age of your ship ... insurance with a warranty though will give you back a new ship plus any other equipment or decorations based on their of insurance you had. Okay, so this is the bit you need to listen to. All ships bought on the pledge store will come with a permanent warranty and their appropriate insurance. This means you will always get your ships back if they're attributed to your account.

Obtaining warranties through normal gameplay sounded like they would be rare and hard to obtain.

Star Citizen will also ship with the ability to own land. In this area the game also imitates Final Fantasy XIV in which owning a plot of land requires service in a city's militia. Star Citizen will differ as players who complete the reputation grind and become "Citizens" will receive greater benefits than those who do not ("civilians"). The base building system is a key that needs to also be complete upon the game's launch.

The game will not just play in a open world sandbox full of missions, PvP and server wide events. The game will also have a wide variety of instanced events. Not stated in the presentation was the positive effects of moving such activity to their own servers. Not only are players protected from others interfering in their activities, but server performance should prove better for players as well.

The previously mentioned StarSim will also play a part in open world gameplay, spawning events and NPCs in relation to player activity as well as the economic activity it independently generates.

Players of EVE Online will find the security systems familiar in Star Citizen. Lawful system like Stanton, Castra and Terra will have internal security zones rated high, medium and low. The higher the security rating, the faster NPC security forces will respond to illegal activity like attacking other players. Successful piracy that captures a ship can be partially be thwarted by invoking a dead man's switch. At that point, the pirate has the choice of salvaging the captured ship, dismantling the ship at a fabrication hangar (chop shops in space!), or obtain a new title deed.

In unlawful systems, the bases needed to extract valuable minerals are attackable as no NPC security forces exist. Organizations can make their bases invulnerable through a shield network. However, the shields are a limited resource players need to bid for each week. Thus, station warfare is born and needs to be present upon the launch of the game.

The ultimate end game goal for organizations are player-built space stations. The stations are similar to the existing NPC run stations. The interiors are fully customizable while stations can grow externally with the addition of wings. Each wing has a specialization for specific tasks like refining and cargo handling. The stations also can have tints and logos applied to their exteriors. And did I mention the player-built stations can also build capital-size ships like the Bengal carrier?

Of course, failing to win your bid on shield resources leaves the station vulnerable to attack. The developers feel stations are so hard to destroy that raiding using boarding parties is the most likely form of attack. So all of that gameplay needs developing before Star Citizen 1.0 can launch.

Very ambitions goals for a game, which is why I have to return to finances.  How long will CIG need to create all the systems mentioned in this blog post? And if CIG needs three years to launch Squadron 42 after declaring the game "feature complete", how long for Star Citizen 1.0? I personally don't see how CIG can commercially launch the game in less than 7 years. Unless Squadron 42 and its sequels are a financial success, I don't see how the company finishes Star Citizen without additional outside investment.

Squadron 42 To Release Sometime In 2026

The first day of Cloud Imperium's CitizenCon completed about an hour ago with a live playthrough of the tutorial of Squadron 42 and a release year. 2026. Oh, and the game crashed to desktop twice and encountered a rather embarrassing bug at the end. Not a very auspicious gameplay reveal.

What I do want to point out is I think Chris Roberts perhaps misled some people on just how close to release Squadron 42 at last year's event. Roberts made the announcement in 2023 that the game was "feature complete" and just needed some polish before being released. I think a lot of people thought that meant the game would come out within 12-18 months. I personally thought the game would release sometime before CitizenCon 2025 at the latest, giving CIG two years to get the game ready.

By announcing the game's launch in 2026, I now expect the game to release sometime in the final quarter of 2026. I believe the outside investors may be a little unhappy as delaying the release of the game approximately 12 months affects the calculation of the investors' returns when they exercise their put options at the beginning of 2028. Hopefully the news does not result in the Calders' exercising their put option in 2025 instead of waiting three more years.

I should add Roberts did not mention pricing for the game, although the game is expected to take 30 to 40 hours to play.

Alliance XX Tournament - The First Weekend's Schedule And Rules

The activity in EVE Online continues this weekend with the first of the final two weeks of Alliance Tournament XX. The feeder rounds are over and for a change I can actually follow the brackets. Here are the brackets, with a focus on times for the first weekend.

Winner's Bracket Schedule

Loser's Bracket Schedule

Hopefully the brackets with the scheduled times helps plan for the big fights. The rules have also changed a bit, with the key changes listed below.

This tournament is now sponsored by the Guristas. As such, the previous CONCORD directives have been rescinded, reducing multiple pirate faction ship costs instead. Gallente-sponsored ships from ATXIX have had their costs restored.



The top 4 winning teams from ATXIX have been invited back by the IGC and will have no cost of entry.



The PLEX Silent Auction Buy-ins have been removed this year, and the entry cost has been increased from 3,000 PLEX to 4,000 PLEX.



Flagship rules have been adjusted to allow prize ships from the previous three alliance tournament to be fielded. Additionally, several previously restricted ships are now allowed.



The point system has been overhauled. The new point cap per team is 200 points, and multiple ships now have new unique point values.



Boosters that don’t directly impact the tournament, such as Cerebral Accelerators, are now allowed.



Instead of 4 total bans submitted to the referee, 2 bans will be submitted by both teams and then shared, followed by 2 additional bans from each team that will also be shared.



Several new ship hulls from the Equinox and Havoc expansions have been added to the tournament.

Today CCP released the specifications for ATXX's prize ships: Sidewinder, Cobra, and Python.

Sidewinder, Covert Ops Frigate

Cobra, Force Recon Cruiser

Python, Black Ops Battleship

The prize ship distribution this year includes everyone who wins at least one match.

Prizes

3 New Alliance Tournament sprize ships are to be issued. The Sidewinder (Frigate), the Cobra (Cruiser) and the Python (Battleship).

This Year’s Prize Ship Distribution:

The prize breakdown for Alliance Tournament XX is as follows:

• 1st (winner of finals): 40x Sidewinder, 40x Cobra, 20x Python
• 2nd (loser of winner’s bracket): 30x Sidewinder, 30x Cobra, 15x Python
• 3rd (loser of match 61): 20x Sidewinder, 20x Cobra, 10x Python
• 4th (loser of match 60): 12x Sidewinder , 12x Cobra, 6x Python
• Top 6 (2 teams, K.O. in losers round 6): 8x Sidewinder, 8x Cobra, 4x Python
• Top 8 (2 teams, K.O. in losers round 5): 6x Sidewinder, 6x Cobra, 3x Python
• Top 12 (4 teams, K.O. in losers round 4): 4x Sidewinder, 4x Cobra, 2x Python
• Top 16 (4 teams, K.O. in losers round 3): 2x Sidewinder, 2x Cobra, 1x Python

A total of 385 ships rewarded!

Victory SKINs are also awarded for each match victory, including in the feeder rounds. So every winning team is playing for 10 Enforcer, Marshal, Pacifier and Monitor SKINs per match.

I don't know if I will watch the tournament live but I might try to catch the YouTube videos when I'm not running around. Live gets hectic and I won't get the chance to watch the coverage live.

News From The FFXIV Korean Fanfest

Over the weekend Creative Studio III held a Fanfest event in Seoul, South Korea for Final Fantasy XIV. I learned of the event when a video from FFXIV content creator Meoni popped up in my YouTube feed. The information in the video was interesting enough I used it as the basis for this post.

The two big items were throwbacks to Shadowbringers content. The first involved cosmic exploration. Originally introduced to players as "lifestyle content", cosmic exploration was described as the evolution of Island Sanctuaries. But the feature now sounds like the Ishgard Restoration in space. FFXIV Producer and Director Naoki Yoshida (aka Yoshi-P) told the audience during the keynote that cosmic exploration was "...a new place to explore in space. Come together Cosmo explorers with curiosity for the unknown and an unwavering spirit for craftsmanship." He even broached the idea of Ishgard Restoration style leader boards, to which the audience was enthusiastically receptive.

One additional item of interest in cosmic exploration involves a mech. At this point we don't know if the purpose of the content is to build a mech which players then can use as a mount. A cool idea, but at this point just theory crafting based on a slide in Yoshi-P's presentation.

The second was the new field exploration content, the Shades Triangle. Field exploration content involves zones like Stormblood's Eureka and Shadowbringer's Bozja. For those who like playing previous Final Fantasy games ahead of new FFXIV content, now is a good time to run through Final Fantasy V. Apparently the home base is based on FFV's Phantom Village, a town which slipped through the dimensional cracks and is a thousand years in the past. Will the connection lead to a lot of FFV-themed rewards?

Another throwback to previous games is the upcoming raid series Echoes of Vana'diel. The Final Fantasy XI crossover raid received some love with the reveal of one of the bosses, Fafnir. The dragon was shown on a slide in its aery imported from Final Fantasy XI. 

Finally, Meoni pointed out the reason the Trust characters have their own summer outfits when the next glamours are unlocked upon reaching level 100. Apparently Fourchenault wrote Alphinaud a letter warning him not to let his adventurer friend pick out his clothes. Players got to dress his mother Ameliance after completing her custom delivery questline and let's just say some of the players let their minds go in the gutter.

A New Crimson Harvest Trailer ... And New Halloween Tradition?

On Saturday CCP dropped a new trailer for EVE Online's Halloween seasonal event, Crimson Harvest. I guess the marketing department didn't want to compete against itself with the big winter expansion announcement for Revenant on Thursday, which included a cinematic trailer. Oops!

Hard to believe the first trailer for Crimson Harvest dropped in 2015. I'd watched the original trailer a few days earlier but decided to see how much the graphics have changed over the last nine years.

A trip down memory lane. I do like the new trailer better. The graphics are not only newer, but whoever created the video stayed true to the original. Considering the event has lasted nine years, a wise choice.

Searching for Crimson Harvest videos did lead me to another thought. Will The Deathless and the pirates of Zarzakh become Halloween fixtures as well? They have the name and will probably figure prominently in future expansions. Above is last year's Pulse video announcing both the latest in the Zarzakh saga as well as the Crimson Harvest.

The news isn't a big this year as the continuing expansion of the Equinox sov system is still ongoing. But Zarzakh fits in with the horror theme of the holiday so another live event next year would not come as a surprise. Still CCP Mirage is a much more suave and debonair host for such news than a certain member of CCP's community team who tried his hand at promoting Halloween a few years ago.

Sorry CCP Convict, you know we all love you. And I did like the reference to Signal Cartel you threw in at the end.

EVE Online's Winter 2024 Expansion Announced

Yesterday CCP Games announced the name of the company's winter expansion for EVE Online, Revenant. Releasing on Tuesday 12 November, Revenant continues the story of The Deathless. Along with the expansion announcement CCP released a new trailer (seen below).

The below is from the press release found on the CCP's corporate site. 

REYKJAVÍK, Iceland – October 10, 2024 – Today, CCP Games revealed EVE Online: Revenant, the next expansion for the legendary spacefaring sci-fi MMO, EVE Online. As old threats reemerge, Revenant sees the ongoing Deathless Saga take an unexpected turn when it begins its launch on 12 November. The Drifters have laid siege to the Deathless in Zarzakh, targeting a shrouded and mysterious structure bearing the hallmarks of ancient technology. In the wake of battle and as the promise of its power grows, the Deathless has called upon the capsuleers of New Eden to help uncover its secrets and stand together in the face of rising chaos and conflict.   

As the tides of war shift, EVE Online: Revenant adds new ways for you to build up your war arsenal in the fight against the Drifters. Aid the Deathless in unlocking the structure and secure ancient artifacts to be rewarded with formidable technology to turn the tide of battle in your favor. Construct mercenary dens within nullsec and strategically deploy them around skyhooks to generate encrypted infomorphs that can be exchanged with the Deathless for advanced new ships and cutting-edge weaponry. To boost the production of encrypted infomorphs, capsuleers can undertake Tactical Operations, as well as upgrade their mercenary dens. 

Acquire unique Deathless ships - the Tholos (destroyer) and Cenotaph (battlecruiser) - that specialize in close-range brawls, giving newfound tactical utility across PvP and PvE combat with damage-over-time weaponry. Cloak to ambush unsuspecting enemies before unleashing their signature attack to lay waste from even beyond the grave. 

“An ancient proverb says, ‘The enemy of my enemy is my friend.’ This is the theme for Revenant, which marks the continuation of an intense chapter in EVE’s history: the Deathless Saga,” said Bergur Finnbogason, Creative Director for EVE Online. “While the Deathless may have won the battle for Zarzakh, the Drifters remain an eminent threat, having emerged from the shadows once more. But with this victory the Deathless has managed to get his hands on something that was not meant for capsuleers. Will this newfound technology be suppressed, or will they harness its furious power?” 

At this point I'll start quoting from the expansion's special website to go into some of the juicy gameplay details. First up are the new ships coming in the expansion. Although only two new ships are coming, they will bring a different type of combat tactics.

The Deathless brings a new paradigm to space combat with the unique Tholos destroyer and Cenotaph battlecruiser. These powerful ships use covert ops cloaks to slip close to enemies and unleash devastating SCARAB breaching pods and Shriker Clone weaponry, inflicting damage over time to disrupt enemy internals. Designed for brawling, they are powerful weapons and give a tactical edge in the ongoing war.

For the null sec powers, Revenant will add additional features to the Equinox sov system.

Mercenary dens are deployable structures in nullsec that latch onto orbital skyhooks around temperate planets, utilizing planetary workforces to produce encrypted infomorphs, which are highly sought after by the Deathless . Shortly after launch capsuleers will have the ability to engage in tactical operations to manage development and anarchy levels in their dens, maintaining infomorph production and reaping valuable rewards. Use these dens to build, disrupt, or raid enemy systems and exchange your spoils for exclusive Deathless ships, weapons, and ammo.

This next passage from the press release is more likely aimed at investors rather than players. From years of covering Pearl Abyss' earnings calls, building social cohesion in the form of strengthening player organizations seems to go over well with investors, or at least the financial analysts on the calls.

EVE Online: Revenant also adds new ways for players to unlock their collective and individual potential. Build stronger groups with enhanced Corporation Projects. Streamline your goals: merge diverse activities into one project through expanded parameters and tailor projects by setting deadlines and placing participation limits. Utilize the new ship insurance project type to empower your corporation in automating ship replacement.  

With enhanced expression and customization for SKINR, capsuleers can elevate their creativity and take their creations to new heights. Experiment with new nanocoatings and patterns, blending them together to craft stunning SKINS. Design exclusive SKINS for your corporation or alliance, allowing you to showcase your colors in unison and strengthen your visual presence across New Eden. A new section in the Paragon Hub makes it easy to find SKINS tailored specifically for your group, enabling you to create a unique "uniform" and share it exclusively with fellow members. 

"Strong organizations are the lifeblood of EVE Online. With Revenant, we’re giving players the tools to strengthen their corporations. Enhanced Corporation Projects will help streamline goals, while the new SKINR features allow for creative expression of your group's identity. These updates will empower players and foster a sense of unity across New Eden,” said Snorri Árnason, Game Director for EVE Online. 

Honestly, I'm not sold on the SKINR system. Ask me again in a month if CCP meets it's revenue goal of ₩20 billion in the 3rd quarter. However, alliance logisticians might find some of the new features appealing.

Corporation leaders can better manage their organization’s goals with enhanced Corporation Project capabilities. Expanded project parameters add flexibility, allowing leaders to set comprehensive, complex and diverse goals, such as mining in multiple locations or targeting various ship types and ship groups. The new Ship Insurance project type (coming shortly following the Revenant launch) offers a streamlined way to automate ship replacement programs, providing a seamless and guaranteed compensation system for members based on the loss value. Project deadlines help corporation leaders prioritize and communicate goals and can signal the urgency and importance of specific projects, helping members prioritize their efforts. Finally, participation limits will ensure equitable involvement across members.

And yes, one needs to read the fine details to see CCP's version of a ship replacement program will appear sometime after the expansion's launch.

Finally from the press release, is Revenant the expansion which introduces integration with EVE Vanguard?

As war flares in the skies above, EVE Vanguard will also take the conflict planet-side with a new public event running 28 November - 9 December. As the largest update yet for the in-development online sci-fi FPS, experience new content, features and a deepened vision for boots-on-the-ground combat within New Eden.

The press release didn't mention a couple of important items. The first is a new use for Evermarks.

Choose how you progress in New Eden with the flexibility of using EverMarks to complete AIR Daily Goals (coming shortly following the Revenant launch). Whether a task doesn't suit your playstyle or seems out of reach, EverMarks let you stay on track while focusing on the activities you enjoy. This empowers you to customize your daily experience and still gain the rewards and progression needed to stay ahead.

I don't think I've ever used any of my EverMarks. I do wonder if the developers will remove Evermarks as a daily reward from the AIR Daily Goals.

The second item are login rewards. The news article on the EVE Online site provided the information.

In celebration of the Revenant release, capsuleers who log in daily for the first two weeks will earn a variety of rewards, including a total of 10,000 EverMarks, SKINR design elements, boosters, Skill Points, and more. Both Alpha and Omega clones will benefit from these rewards, with Omegas getting both.

We'll see more details over the next four weeks, but for now we have a name and date for the new expansion.

A Look At The Active ISK Delta In September 2024

With the end of September another fiscal quarter is in the books. Before we get financial reports from everyone from game companies to the Federal Reserve, CCP Games has published EVE Online's in-game monthly economic report for September 2024. As usual I will focus on the Active ISK Delta with a little information to put the figure into historical perspective.

The Active ISK Delta is the net effect on the New Eden monetary supply of players leaving and returning to the game. The Active ISK Delta also includes any reductions due to any and all GM actions. In September, 65.3 trillion ISK left the economy from the movement of players into and out of the game. The change made the Active ISK Delta the biggest ISK sink in the game, dwarfing the 18.7 trillion ISK removed from the economy through transaction taxes.

Normally CCP would like to see players returning to the game in September. But if the Active ISK Delta is any indication, more players left the game in September than in August. The amount of ISK leaving the game actually rose from 35.5 trillion ISK in August. Now, the change could also indicate fewer left the game, but that those who did were longer term players. Either way, not really a good sign.

Being the end of September, I looked at the total Active ISK Delta over the 3rd quarter of 2024. For the information I have going back to the beginning of 2018, Q3 saw the smallest Active ISK Delta over the past 7 years at -240.5 trillion ISK. The ISK removed from the game by players not logging in for 30 days and GMs confiscating ISK was 10.7% of the money supply on 1 July 2024. Overall, the New Eden money supply fell by 1.7% during the course of the 3rd quarter.

While the money supply was falling, did that mean player activity declined as well? A quick look at the ISK velocity shows the answer is no. The overall velocity of ISK reached 0.5 again, meaning that the level of trade in September was in the neighborhood of 1.1 quadrillion ISK. Converted to something more tangible, that is approximately 386,000 months of game time using the Jita average on 30 September. For those who like real money conversions, the amount of trade is approximately $2.1 million if the game time is purchased at the 3 month rate in the cash shop.

Believe it or not, year-over-year less ISK left the economy as measured by the Active ISK Delta. The historical average value in September since the introduction of a free-to-play option is -40 trillion ISK. This year's figure improved upon last year's total of -78.1 trillion ISK by 12.8 trillion. So perhaps the trend is more positive than the rest of the metrics I'm looking at would leave one to believe.

Combining data sources helps paint a cleaner picture of the activity inside EVE Online. The data from Dotlan Maps showed a decline in activity in September. The Active ISK Delta then showed a record amount of ISK leaving the game as players fell inactive. But the remaining players didn't really let up on the economic activity as seen by the increasing velocity of ISK during September. Are we set up for a big reaction to the winter expansion when CCP finally announces the expected new content drop? To tell the truth, the game possibly is healthier than last year so we'll have to see.

The Real Significance Of The Crunch Time For CitizenCon Story

Back at the beginning of the Squadron 42/Star Citizen project in 2012, Chris Roberts argued for crowd funding to free himself from the shackles of the greedy publishers who would hamper his efforts to make the best damn space game simulation possible. But after 12 years and $725 million in sales, time may be running out on Cloud Imperium's immunity to the same financial pressures game publishers face when backing the development of a game.

The latest example is the kerfuffle around the mandatory crunch time to work on preparations for this year's CitizenCon event. CitizenCon is CIG's annual event for the more hardcore members of its fan base. Think of Activision-Blizzard's Blizzcon or CCP Games' Fanfest for comparisons. According to a report from Insider Gaming, the managers at CIG are instituting crunchtime for the two weeks leading up to the event.

The company mandate states:

• All staff are to be in the office on Friday, October 4th and Friday, October 11th (typically a work-at-home day)
  
  
• All staff are to be in the office on Saturday, October 5th, and Saturday, October 12th (for these days, the company will provide breakfast and lunch, with staff receiving company TOIL (time off in lieu) which can be stored and used for time off at a later date)
  
  
• All staff are to work on Sunday, October 6th, and Sunday, October 13th (this can be a work-at-home day, but the company “encourages” people to be in the office. For these days and for those in the office, the company will provide breakfast and lunch, with staff receiving company TOIL, which can be stored and used for time off at a later date)

Also, in the case of Squadron 42, the crunch time preparing for CitizenCon goes back to July if the Insider Gaming report is to believed. And given the reaction from individual developers, I believe the reporting.

Another internal email sent to Insider Gaming in July 2024 reveals that Cloud Imperium Games “pre-approved” 12 hours of ‘SQ42 TOIL’ per week for developers to meet Citizencon deadlines. The catch? The TOIL will only be made available after Squadron 42 ships, and employees must still be employed with the company by the time the game ships, or the TOIL “will be forfeited.”

Most of the stories I've read and heard about the incident focus on labor law and the effect on CIG's employees. And given stories like initially not allowing employees in its Austin studio to take off time during the big winter storm of 2021, I can see why gaming publications would continue with that theme. But as suggested at the beginning of this post, I have a different take on the situation.

Throughout the year I've seen signs that money is becoming an issue for CIG. From the layoffs at the beginning of 2024 to the revelation the company has significant unfunded financial obligations coming due in 2028. time is running out on CIG. Of course, if Squadron 42 is a good game and does decent financially a lot of the financial worries go away. 

I think after Chris Roberts' statement at CitizenCon last year that SQ42 was "feature complete" that many people believed the game would release either sometime in 2024 or 2025. Did the expectations for the game's release finally cause crunch time at CIG? Or is the financial situation such that CIG needs the pre-order money for SQ42 and thus needs to make a big announcement at CitizenCon that can't go wrong or look haphazard? From what I can tell, I'd guess the latter is the case. After all, the Calders could exercise their put option in the first quarter of 2025 if they feel revenue will decline over the next three years compared to the record period of 2022-2024. And that would damage CIG's ability to publish SQ42, let alone complete Star Citizen.

A Look At September 2024 Activity In EVE Online

September is usually a key month for EVE Online. An increase in activity usually indicates a lot of interest in the game and a good financial showing for the third quarter. If no growth occurs, don't expect a really good winter. For CCP Games, I think they should thank the stars EVE Galaxy Conquest launches at the end of the October.

 

Our first indicator, as always, is average concurrent users. Jester's tracking graph shows the number of players logged into the game stayed consistently around 21,000 accounts. Not a good sign historically except in 2023 when the ACU dipped from 19,000 down to 18,000 in the middle of the month. Has the return to the two-expansions a year model changed player behavior? We'll see in November.

Looking at general month-over-month numbers, activity dipped a bit in high sec killing of NPCs, dropping 5.1% at a time the number should increase. Player ship deaths remained flat with a little additional activity in factional warfare and insurrection sites. But perhaps surprisingly, players slowed down killing each other in null sec, with player ship deaths declining 8%. I guess the Imperium's takeover of the cluster's south and south-east so the organization can move out of Delve slowed down activity.

Year-over-year, though, activity is still up. The kill exchange incentives the developers installed still distort the high sec ship kill numbers although players killed NPCs at increased rates. The big numbers are in null sec, as three months into a null sec expansion we see year-over-year growth. The ratting activity is most telling as the number of NPCs killed in null rose 32.6% compared to the number killed in September 2023.

 

With CCP's change in focus to null sec I'll also look at the engine that keeps EVE Online afloat financially: null sec PvE. While numbers are not climbing, players are presumably adapting to the new Equinox sov system slower than I think the developers anticipated. At least, that's my opinion based on the latest patches and the way the dev blogs try to cajole the null sec alliances to adapt to the new system. Of course, the Imperium is probably adapting in a way unanticipated by the devs, with the number of dead NPCs not rising as expected. Yes, always blame the Goons.

Numbers should rise in October as the weather gets colder and Crimson Harvest occupies everyone's attention. I do have to wonder if the SKINR system brought in enough income to tear apart previous financial estimates or if players logging in and shooting things in internet space is a good barometer of how the EVE Online is doing in the eyes of our overlords in Anyang. I guess we'll see next month.

EVE: Galaxy Conquest To Launch October 29th

I'm a week behind the announcement, but due to the importance of the news I do need to make a post. On the Q2 2024 earnings call investors were told they should expect the EVE franchise to earn at least ₩20 billion in revenue every quarter. A part of that is the launch of the new games under development at CCP Games. The first of those games, EVE: Galaxy Conquest, is due to launch on 29 October. I'm pretty sure CCP won't mind if I copy/paste from the press release announcing a cinematic trailer for the new game. 

The cinematic trailer

REYKJAVÍK, Iceland – September 26, 2024 - CCP Games today announced the official launch date for EVE Galaxy Conquest, the free-to-play 4X strategy game that brings the intense player-driven conflict of New Eden to mobile devices. Aspiring Commanders can prepare for galactic warfare on October 29, 2024, when the game launches worldwide on iOS and Android devices. To mark this occasion, CCP has released a breathtaking cinematic trailer and opened pre-registration in the Apple App Store and Google Play Store.

Developed by CCP Games’ Shanghai studio, EVE Galaxy Conquest transports the intense player-driven conflict of EVE Online’s renowned universe to mobile devices. Nefarious forces have unleashed an unprecedented assault, overwhelming the established Empires. To combat this extreme threat, Empire leaders have initiated the Valhalla System, resurrecting heroic Commanders to spearhead the fight in retaking New Eden. Choose your Empire and form fleets with iconic ships from EVE Online to dominate the galaxy, whether by forming alliances or acting alone in a seasonal battle for factional supremacy. Build unstoppable armadas, form corporations with allies, and vie to conquer the cosmos itself.

“October 29 marks the day when Commanders will rise to reclaim New Eden from the forces that seek to destroy it,” said Bing Mikael Xi, EVE Galaxy Conquest’s executive producer and CCP Shanghai’s General Manager. “The galaxy's fate hangs in the balance, and we can’t wait to see the alliances and rivalries that will shape its future.”

The cinematic trailer plunges viewers into the heart of New Eden’s crisis, showcasing the fall of the great Empires to an unprecedented pirate assault, the activation of the mysterious Valhalla System, and the resurrection of legendary Commanders tasked with leading the counterattack.

“EVE Galaxy Conquest translates the vast, player-driven universe of EVE Online to the palm of your hand in a new 4X experience,” said Michael Lee, Brand Director at CCP Shanghai. “Whether you choose to forge alliances or stand alone, your decisions will shape the future of the galaxy.”

In order to ensure meeting Pearl Abyss' financial goals for the franchise, EVE Galaxy Conquest will need to earn ₩3-4 billion ($2.2 million to $3 million) per quarter until the two games in the development pipeline, the FPS game EVE Vanguard and MMO blockchain-based EVE Frontier, come online. Due to the activity levels seen in EVE Online over the summer, do not expect overall franchise sales to meet Anyang's ₩20 billion quarterly goal on the next earnings call, as EVE Galaxy Conquest did not launch in the 3rd quarter. Then again, I believe the plan was always for the new mobile game to launch in the 4th quarter.