What Will Star Citizen 1.0 Look Like?

Over the weekend Cloud Imperium Games held it's annual CitizenCon event in Manchester, England. Celebrating the 12th anniversary of the launch of the Kickstarter for Squadron 42 and Star Citizen, Heading into the project's 13th year, the company is facing some financial challenges. Cash shop sales over the last two years are apparently not keeping up with development expenses. CIG's North American studios underwent a significant workforce reduction at the beginning of 2024. And on day 1 of the convention, CIG founder and CEO Chris Roberts announced the company's single player game, Squadron 42, would not release until sometime in 2026. Unless otherwise noted, such a date usually indicates a release sometime in December 2026.

Into this environment CIG dropped its final presentation of the event, "The Stars My Destination: Star Citizen 1.0". The presentation spelled out what CIG considered the minimum viable product to release for commercial sale. Well, for sale without the development labels "alpha" or "beta". An outstanding question for years, what will the game deliver upon commercial release? 

First off, once the game is commercially launched, the company is promising improved performance, a polished experience, finished gameplay loops, and no more server resets. If a previously mentioned piece of content, feature, or star system is not present in the 1.0 release, the developers will add it in future patches. In other words, pretty standard stuff players expect from a game.

The presentation addressed a big issue from the original Kickstarter, the number of systems in Star Citizen at launch. According the the various stretch goals, the number originally was 100. Senior game director Richard Tyrer explained why the planned number of systems changed.

... the star systems of old are not the star systems of today. They were based on the Privateer and Freelancer model. They were unexplorable planets with an isolated and small landing zone and had automated landings ... and we all know how that went.

To give you an idea Stanton had four points of interest (POI) and the entire 100 systems only had 90 POIs. Compare that to Stanton today and we have 1626 points of interest. And that is going to be dwarfed once we start using the Starchitect tool you saw yesterday. 

The game will launch with 5 star systems. One system is already known to players: Stanton. The next planet will arrive with Alpha 4.0: Pyro. Sometime later, the 3-planet Nyx system which the developers have worked on in the past will show up in the 'verse. The final two systems are Castra (two planets) and Terra (four planets).

The game is going to launch with a main story to help players learn about the game. The game will introduce players not only to the types of gameplay but to the NPC guilds as well. For those who play EVE Online, the system sounds very much like the tutorial, career agent, and opportunity systems in that game, including the reputation grinds. A difference, though, is the presence of location stories. These missions will help add lore and character to the locations in the world.

The game will also have a full mission system based on NPC guilds. These guilds have agents with whom the player will interact. The game also has two guilds which engage in PvP and are in conflict with each other. 

The economy will be based on the StarSim (formerly known as Quantum) system. The system is described as dynamic and will automatically adjust the in-game prices based on player activity, so a functioning StarSim is an absolute requirement for a commercial release of Star Citizen.

Something the developers had to address is how ship insurance would work. Tyrer announced during the presentation.

We'll have three tiers of insurance with level one being chassis insurance, level two chassis and component insurance, and level three chassis, component and decorations insurance. Now insurance by itself will only pay out credits based on the wear and age of your ship ... insurance with a warranty though will give you back a new ship plus any other equipment or decorations based on their of insurance you had. Okay, so this is the bit you need to listen to. All ships bought on the pledge store will come with a permanent warranty and their appropriate insurance. This means you will always get your ships back if they're attributed to your account.

Obtaining warranties through normal gameplay sounded like they would be rare and hard to obtain.

Star Citizen will also ship with the ability to own land. In this area the game also imitates Final Fantasy XIV in which owning a plot of land requires service in a city's militia. Star Citizen will differ as players who complete the reputation grind and become "Citizens" will receive greater benefits than those who do not ("civilians"). The base building system is a key that needs to also be complete upon the game's launch.

The game will not just play in a open world sandbox full of missions, PvP and server wide events. The game will also have a wide variety of instanced events. Not stated in the presentation was the positive effects of moving such activity to their own servers. Not only are players protected from others interfering in their activities, but server performance should prove better for players as well.

The previously mentioned StarSim will also play a part in open world gameplay, spawning events and NPCs in relation to player activity as well as the economic activity it independently generates.

Players of EVE Online will find the security systems familiar in Star Citizen. Lawful system like Stanton, Castra and Terra will have internal security zones rated high, medium and low. The higher the security rating, the faster NPC security forces will respond to illegal activity like attacking other players. Successful piracy that captures a ship can be partially be thwarted by invoking a dead man's switch. At that point, the pirate has the choice of salvaging the captured ship, dismantling the ship at a fabrication hangar (chop shops in space!), or obtain a new title deed.

In unlawful systems, the bases needed to extract valuable minerals are attackable as no NPC security forces exist. Organizations can make their bases invulnerable through a shield network. However, the shields are a limited resource players need to bid for each week. Thus, station warfare is born and needs to be present upon the launch of the game.

The ultimate end game goal for organizations are player-built space stations. The stations are similar to the existing NPC run stations. The interiors are fully customizable while stations can grow externally with the addition of wings. Each wing has a specialization for specific tasks like refining and cargo handling. The stations also can have tints and logos applied to their exteriors. And did I mention the player-built stations can also build capital-size ships like the Bengal carrier?

Of course, failing to win your bid on shield resources leaves the station vulnerable to attack. The developers feel stations are so hard to destroy that raiding using boarding parties is the most likely form of attack. So all of that gameplay needs developing before Star Citizen 1.0 can launch.

Very ambitions goals for a game, which is why I have to return to finances.  How long will CIG need to create all the systems mentioned in this blog post? And if CIG needs three years to launch Squadron 42 after declaring the game "feature complete", how long for Star Citizen 1.0? I personally don't see how CIG can commercially launch the game in less than 7 years. Unless Squadron 42 and its sequels are a financial success, I don't see how the company finishes Star Citizen without additional outside investment.

Squadron 42 To Release Sometime In 2026

The first day of Cloud Imperium's CitizenCon completed about an hour ago with a live playthrough of the tutorial of Squadron 42 and a release year. 2026. Oh, and the game crashed to desktop twice and encountered a rather embarrassing bug at the end. Not a very auspicious gameplay reveal.

What I do want to point out is I think Chris Roberts perhaps misled some people on just how close to release Squadron 42 at last year's event. Roberts made the announcement in 2023 that the game was "feature complete" and just needed some polish before being released. I think a lot of people thought that meant the game would come out within 12-18 months. I personally thought the game would release sometime before CitizenCon 2025 at the latest, giving CIG two years to get the game ready.

By announcing the game's launch in 2026, I now expect the game to release sometime in the final quarter of 2026. I believe the outside investors may be a little unhappy as delaying the release of the game approximately 12 months affects the calculation of the investors' returns when they exercise their put options at the beginning of 2028. Hopefully the news does not result in the Calders' exercising their put option in 2025 instead of waiting three more years.

I should add Roberts did not mention pricing for the game, although the game is expected to take 30 to 40 hours to play.

Alliance XX Tournament - The First Weekend's Schedule And Rules

The activity in EVE Online continues this weekend with the first of the final two weeks of Alliance Tournament XX. The feeder rounds are over and for a change I can actually follow the brackets. Here are the brackets, with a focus on times for the first weekend.

Winner's Bracket Schedule

Loser's Bracket Schedule

Hopefully the brackets with the scheduled times helps plan for the big fights. The rules have also changed a bit, with the key changes listed below.

This tournament is now sponsored by the Guristas. As such, the previous CONCORD directives have been rescinded, reducing multiple pirate faction ship costs instead. Gallente-sponsored ships from ATXIX have had their costs restored.



The top 4 winning teams from ATXIX have been invited back by the IGC and will have no cost of entry.



The PLEX Silent Auction Buy-ins have been removed this year, and the entry cost has been increased from 3,000 PLEX to 4,000 PLEX.



Flagship rules have been adjusted to allow prize ships from the previous three alliance tournament to be fielded. Additionally, several previously restricted ships are now allowed.



The point system has been overhauled. The new point cap per team is 200 points, and multiple ships now have new unique point values.



Boosters that don’t directly impact the tournament, such as Cerebral Accelerators, are now allowed.



Instead of 4 total bans submitted to the referee, 2 bans will be submitted by both teams and then shared, followed by 2 additional bans from each team that will also be shared.



Several new ship hulls from the Equinox and Havoc expansions have been added to the tournament.

Today CCP released the specifications for ATXX's prize ships: Sidewinder, Cobra, and Python.

Sidewinder, Covert Ops Frigate

Cobra, Force Recon Cruiser

Python, Black Ops Battleship

The prize ship distribution this year includes everyone who wins at least one match.

Prizes

3 New Alliance Tournament sprize ships are to be issued. The Sidewinder (Frigate), the Cobra (Cruiser) and the Python (Battleship).

This Year’s Prize Ship Distribution:

The prize breakdown for Alliance Tournament XX is as follows:

• 1st (winner of finals): 40x Sidewinder, 40x Cobra, 20x Python
• 2nd (loser of winner’s bracket): 30x Sidewinder, 30x Cobra, 15x Python
• 3rd (loser of match 61): 20x Sidewinder, 20x Cobra, 10x Python
• 4th (loser of match 60): 12x Sidewinder , 12x Cobra, 6x Python
• Top 6 (2 teams, K.O. in losers round 6): 8x Sidewinder, 8x Cobra, 4x Python
• Top 8 (2 teams, K.O. in losers round 5): 6x Sidewinder, 6x Cobra, 3x Python
• Top 12 (4 teams, K.O. in losers round 4): 4x Sidewinder, 4x Cobra, 2x Python
• Top 16 (4 teams, K.O. in losers round 3): 2x Sidewinder, 2x Cobra, 1x Python

A total of 385 ships rewarded!

Victory SKINs are also awarded for each match victory, including in the feeder rounds. So every winning team is playing for 10 Enforcer, Marshal, Pacifier and Monitor SKINs per match.

I don't know if I will watch the tournament live but I might try to catch the YouTube videos when I'm not running around. Live gets hectic and I won't get the chance to watch the coverage live.

News From The FFXIV Korean Fanfest

Over the weekend Creative Studio III held a Fanfest event in Seoul, South Korea for Final Fantasy XIV. I learned of the event when a video from FFXIV content creator Meoni popped up in my YouTube feed. The information in the video was interesting enough I used it as the basis for this post.

The two big items were throwbacks to Shadowbringers content. The first involved cosmic exploration. Originally introduced to players as "lifestyle content", cosmic exploration was described as the evolution of Island Sanctuaries. But the feature now sounds like the Ishgard Restoration in space. FFXIV Producer and Director Naoki Yoshida (aka Yoshi-P) told the audience during the keynote that cosmic exploration was "...a new place to explore in space. Come together Cosmo explorers with curiosity for the unknown and an unwavering spirit for craftsmanship." He even broached the idea of Ishgard Restoration style leader boards, to which the audience was enthusiastically receptive.

One additional item of interest in cosmic exploration involves a mech. At this point we don't know if the purpose of the content is to build a mech which players then can use as a mount. A cool idea, but at this point just theory crafting based on a slide in Yoshi-P's presentation.

The second was the new field exploration content, the Shades Triangle. Field exploration content involves zones like Stormblood's Eureka and Shadowbringer's Bozja. For those who like playing previous Final Fantasy games ahead of new FFXIV content, now is a good time to run through Final Fantasy V. Apparently the home base is based on FFV's Phantom Village, a town which slipped through the dimensional cracks and is a thousand years in the past. Will the connection lead to a lot of FFV-themed rewards?

Another throwback to previous games is the upcoming raid series Echoes of Vana'diel. The Final Fantasy XI crossover raid received some love with the reveal of one of the bosses, Fafnir. The dragon was shown on a slide in its aery imported from Final Fantasy XI. 

Finally, Meoni pointed out the reason the Trust characters have their own summer outfits when the next glamours are unlocked upon reaching level 100. Apparently Fourchenault wrote Alphinaud a letter warning him not to let his adventurer friend pick out his clothes. Players got to dress his mother Ameliance after completing her custom delivery questline and let's just say some of the players let their minds go in the gutter.

A New Crimson Harvest Trailer ... And New Halloween Tradition?

On Saturday CCP dropped a new trailer for EVE Online's Halloween seasonal event, Crimson Harvest. I guess the marketing department didn't want to compete against itself with the big winter expansion announcement for Revenant on Thursday, which included a cinematic trailer. Oops!

Hard to believe the first trailer for Crimson Harvest dropped in 2015. I'd watched the original trailer a few days earlier but decided to see how much the graphics have changed over the last nine years.

A trip down memory lane. I do like the new trailer better. The graphics are not only newer, but whoever created the video stayed true to the original. Considering the event has lasted nine years, a wise choice.

Searching for Crimson Harvest videos did lead me to another thought. Will The Deathless and the pirates of Zarzakh become Halloween fixtures as well? They have the name and will probably figure prominently in future expansions. Above is last year's Pulse video announcing both the latest in the Zarzakh saga as well as the Crimson Harvest.

The news isn't a big this year as the continuing expansion of the Equinox sov system is still ongoing. But Zarzakh fits in with the horror theme of the holiday so another live event next year would not come as a surprise. Still CCP Mirage is a much more suave and debonair host for such news than a certain member of CCP's community team who tried his hand at promoting Halloween a few years ago.

Sorry CCP Convict, you know we all love you. And I did like the reference to Signal Cartel you threw in at the end.

EVE Online's Winter 2024 Expansion Announced

Yesterday CCP Games announced the name of the company's winter expansion for EVE Online, Revenant. Releasing on Tuesday 12 November, Revenant continues the story of The Deathless. Along with the expansion announcement CCP released a new trailer (seen below).

The below is from the press release found on the CCP's corporate site. 

REYKJAVÍK, Iceland – October 10, 2024 – Today, CCP Games revealed EVE Online: Revenant, the next expansion for the legendary spacefaring sci-fi MMO, EVE Online. As old threats reemerge, Revenant sees the ongoing Deathless Saga take an unexpected turn when it begins its launch on 12 November. The Drifters have laid siege to the Deathless in Zarzakh, targeting a shrouded and mysterious structure bearing the hallmarks of ancient technology. In the wake of battle and as the promise of its power grows, the Deathless has called upon the capsuleers of New Eden to help uncover its secrets and stand together in the face of rising chaos and conflict.   

As the tides of war shift, EVE Online: Revenant adds new ways for you to build up your war arsenal in the fight against the Drifters. Aid the Deathless in unlocking the structure and secure ancient artifacts to be rewarded with formidable technology to turn the tide of battle in your favor. Construct mercenary dens within nullsec and strategically deploy them around skyhooks to generate encrypted infomorphs that can be exchanged with the Deathless for advanced new ships and cutting-edge weaponry. To boost the production of encrypted infomorphs, capsuleers can undertake Tactical Operations, as well as upgrade their mercenary dens. 

Acquire unique Deathless ships - the Tholos (destroyer) and Cenotaph (battlecruiser) - that specialize in close-range brawls, giving newfound tactical utility across PvP and PvE combat with damage-over-time weaponry. Cloak to ambush unsuspecting enemies before unleashing their signature attack to lay waste from even beyond the grave. 

“An ancient proverb says, ‘The enemy of my enemy is my friend.’ This is the theme for Revenant, which marks the continuation of an intense chapter in EVE’s history: the Deathless Saga,” said Bergur Finnbogason, Creative Director for EVE Online. “While the Deathless may have won the battle for Zarzakh, the Drifters remain an eminent threat, having emerged from the shadows once more. But with this victory the Deathless has managed to get his hands on something that was not meant for capsuleers. Will this newfound technology be suppressed, or will they harness its furious power?” 

At this point I'll start quoting from the expansion's special website to go into some of the juicy gameplay details. First up are the new ships coming in the expansion. Although only two new ships are coming, they will bring a different type of combat tactics.

The Deathless brings a new paradigm to space combat with the unique Tholos destroyer and Cenotaph battlecruiser. These powerful ships use covert ops cloaks to slip close to enemies and unleash devastating SCARAB breaching pods and Shriker Clone weaponry, inflicting damage over time to disrupt enemy internals. Designed for brawling, they are powerful weapons and give a tactical edge in the ongoing war.

For the null sec powers, Revenant will add additional features to the Equinox sov system.

Mercenary dens are deployable structures in nullsec that latch onto orbital skyhooks around temperate planets, utilizing planetary workforces to produce encrypted infomorphs, which are highly sought after by the Deathless . Shortly after launch capsuleers will have the ability to engage in tactical operations to manage development and anarchy levels in their dens, maintaining infomorph production and reaping valuable rewards. Use these dens to build, disrupt, or raid enemy systems and exchange your spoils for exclusive Deathless ships, weapons, and ammo.

This next passage from the press release is more likely aimed at investors rather than players. From years of covering Pearl Abyss' earnings calls, building social cohesion in the form of strengthening player organizations seems to go over well with investors, or at least the financial analysts on the calls.

EVE Online: Revenant also adds new ways for players to unlock their collective and individual potential. Build stronger groups with enhanced Corporation Projects. Streamline your goals: merge diverse activities into one project through expanded parameters and tailor projects by setting deadlines and placing participation limits. Utilize the new ship insurance project type to empower your corporation in automating ship replacement.  

With enhanced expression and customization for SKINR, capsuleers can elevate their creativity and take their creations to new heights. Experiment with new nanocoatings and patterns, blending them together to craft stunning SKINS. Design exclusive SKINS for your corporation or alliance, allowing you to showcase your colors in unison and strengthen your visual presence across New Eden. A new section in the Paragon Hub makes it easy to find SKINS tailored specifically for your group, enabling you to create a unique "uniform" and share it exclusively with fellow members. 

"Strong organizations are the lifeblood of EVE Online. With Revenant, we’re giving players the tools to strengthen their corporations. Enhanced Corporation Projects will help streamline goals, while the new SKINR features allow for creative expression of your group's identity. These updates will empower players and foster a sense of unity across New Eden,” said Snorri Árnason, Game Director for EVE Online. 

Honestly, I'm not sold on the SKINR system. Ask me again in a month if CCP meets it's revenue goal of ₩20 billion in the 3rd quarter. However, alliance logisticians might find some of the new features appealing.

Corporation leaders can better manage their organization’s goals with enhanced Corporation Project capabilities. Expanded project parameters add flexibility, allowing leaders to set comprehensive, complex and diverse goals, such as mining in multiple locations or targeting various ship types and ship groups. The new Ship Insurance project type (coming shortly following the Revenant launch) offers a streamlined way to automate ship replacement programs, providing a seamless and guaranteed compensation system for members based on the loss value. Project deadlines help corporation leaders prioritize and communicate goals and can signal the urgency and importance of specific projects, helping members prioritize their efforts. Finally, participation limits will ensure equitable involvement across members.

And yes, one needs to read the fine details to see CCP's version of a ship replacement program will appear sometime after the expansion's launch.

Finally from the press release, is Revenant the expansion which introduces integration with EVE Vanguard?

As war flares in the skies above, EVE Vanguard will also take the conflict planet-side with a new public event running 28 November - 9 December. As the largest update yet for the in-development online sci-fi FPS, experience new content, features and a deepened vision for boots-on-the-ground combat within New Eden.

The press release didn't mention a couple of important items. The first is a new use for Evermarks.

Choose how you progress in New Eden with the flexibility of using EverMarks to complete AIR Daily Goals (coming shortly following the Revenant launch). Whether a task doesn't suit your playstyle or seems out of reach, EverMarks let you stay on track while focusing on the activities you enjoy. This empowers you to customize your daily experience and still gain the rewards and progression needed to stay ahead.

I don't think I've ever used any of my EverMarks. I do wonder if the developers will remove Evermarks as a daily reward from the AIR Daily Goals.

The second item are login rewards. The news article on the EVE Online site provided the information.

In celebration of the Revenant release, capsuleers who log in daily for the first two weeks will earn a variety of rewards, including a total of 10,000 EverMarks, SKINR design elements, boosters, Skill Points, and more. Both Alpha and Omega clones will benefit from these rewards, with Omegas getting both.

We'll see more details over the next four weeks, but for now we have a name and date for the new expansion.

A Look At The Active ISK Delta In September 2024

With the end of September another fiscal quarter is in the books. Before we get financial reports from everyone from game companies to the Federal Reserve, CCP Games has published EVE Online's in-game monthly economic report for September 2024. As usual I will focus on the Active ISK Delta with a little information to put the figure into historical perspective.

The Active ISK Delta is the net effect on the New Eden monetary supply of players leaving and returning to the game. The Active ISK Delta also includes any reductions due to any and all GM actions. In September, 65.3 trillion ISK left the economy from the movement of players into and out of the game. The change made the Active ISK Delta the biggest ISK sink in the game, dwarfing the 18.7 trillion ISK removed from the economy through transaction taxes.

Normally CCP would like to see players returning to the game in September. But if the Active ISK Delta is any indication, more players left the game in September than in August. The amount of ISK leaving the game actually rose from 35.5 trillion ISK in August. Now, the change could also indicate fewer left the game, but that those who did were longer term players. Either way, not really a good sign.

Being the end of September, I looked at the total Active ISK Delta over the 3rd quarter of 2024. For the information I have going back to the beginning of 2018, Q3 saw the smallest Active ISK Delta over the past 7 years at -240.5 trillion ISK. The ISK removed from the game by players not logging in for 30 days and GMs confiscating ISK was 10.7% of the money supply on 1 July 2024. Overall, the New Eden money supply fell by 1.7% during the course of the 3rd quarter.

While the money supply was falling, did that mean player activity declined as well? A quick look at the ISK velocity shows the answer is no. The overall velocity of ISK reached 0.5 again, meaning that the level of trade in September was in the neighborhood of 1.1 quadrillion ISK. Converted to something more tangible, that is approximately 386,000 months of game time using the Jita average on 30 September. For those who like real money conversions, the amount of trade is approximately $2.1 million if the game time is purchased at the 3 month rate in the cash shop.

Believe it or not, year-over-year less ISK left the economy as measured by the Active ISK Delta. The historical average value in September since the introduction of a free-to-play option is -40 trillion ISK. This year's figure improved upon last year's total of -78.1 trillion ISK by 12.8 trillion. So perhaps the trend is more positive than the rest of the metrics I'm looking at would leave one to believe.

Combining data sources helps paint a cleaner picture of the activity inside EVE Online. The data from Dotlan Maps showed a decline in activity in September. The Active ISK Delta then showed a record amount of ISK leaving the game as players fell inactive. But the remaining players didn't really let up on the economic activity as seen by the increasing velocity of ISK during September. Are we set up for a big reaction to the winter expansion when CCP finally announces the expected new content drop? To tell the truth, the game possibly is healthier than last year so we'll have to see.

The Real Significance Of The Crunch Time For CitizenCon Story

Back at the beginning of the Squadron 42/Star Citizen project in 2012, Chris Roberts argued for crowd funding to free himself from the shackles of the greedy publishers who would hamper his efforts to make the best damn space game simulation possible. But after 12 years and $725 million in sales, time may be running out on Cloud Imperium's immunity to the same financial pressures game publishers face when backing the development of a game.

The latest example is the kerfuffle around the mandatory crunch time to work on preparations for this year's CitizenCon event. CitizenCon is CIG's annual event for the more hardcore members of its fan base. Think of Activision-Blizzard's Blizzcon or CCP Games' Fanfest for comparisons. According to a report from Insider Gaming, the managers at CIG are instituting crunchtime for the two weeks leading up to the event.

The company mandate states:

• All staff are to be in the office on Friday, October 4th and Friday, October 11th (typically a work-at-home day)
  
  
• All staff are to be in the office on Saturday, October 5th, and Saturday, October 12th (for these days, the company will provide breakfast and lunch, with staff receiving company TOIL (time off in lieu) which can be stored and used for time off at a later date)
  
  
• All staff are to work on Sunday, October 6th, and Sunday, October 13th (this can be a work-at-home day, but the company “encourages” people to be in the office. For these days and for those in the office, the company will provide breakfast and lunch, with staff receiving company TOIL, which can be stored and used for time off at a later date)

Also, in the case of Squadron 42, the crunch time preparing for CitizenCon goes back to July if the Insider Gaming report is to believed. And given the reaction from individual developers, I believe the reporting.

Another internal email sent to Insider Gaming in July 2024 reveals that Cloud Imperium Games “pre-approved” 12 hours of ‘SQ42 TOIL’ per week for developers to meet Citizencon deadlines. The catch? The TOIL will only be made available after Squadron 42 ships, and employees must still be employed with the company by the time the game ships, or the TOIL “will be forfeited.”

Most of the stories I've read and heard about the incident focus on labor law and the effect on CIG's employees. And given stories like initially not allowing employees in its Austin studio to take off time during the big winter storm of 2021, I can see why gaming publications would continue with that theme. But as suggested at the beginning of this post, I have a different take on the situation.

Throughout the year I've seen signs that money is becoming an issue for CIG. From the layoffs at the beginning of 2024 to the revelation the company has significant unfunded financial obligations coming due in 2028. time is running out on CIG. Of course, if Squadron 42 is a good game and does decent financially a lot of the financial worries go away. 

I think after Chris Roberts' statement at CitizenCon last year that SQ42 was "feature complete" that many people believed the game would release either sometime in 2024 or 2025. Did the expectations for the game's release finally cause crunch time at CIG? Or is the financial situation such that CIG needs the pre-order money for SQ42 and thus needs to make a big announcement at CitizenCon that can't go wrong or look haphazard? From what I can tell, I'd guess the latter is the case. After all, the Calders could exercise their put option in the first quarter of 2025 if they feel revenue will decline over the next three years compared to the record period of 2022-2024. And that would damage CIG's ability to publish SQ42, let alone complete Star Citizen.

A Look At September 2024 Activity In EVE Online

September is usually a key month for EVE Online. An increase in activity usually indicates a lot of interest in the game and a good financial showing for the third quarter. If no growth occurs, don't expect a really good winter. For CCP Games, I think they should thank the stars EVE Galaxy Conquest launches at the end of the October.

 

Our first indicator, as always, is average concurrent users. Jester's tracking graph shows the number of players logged into the game stayed consistently around 21,000 accounts. Not a good sign historically except in 2023 when the ACU dipped from 19,000 down to 18,000 in the middle of the month. Has the return to the two-expansions a year model changed player behavior? We'll see in November.

Looking at general month-over-month numbers, activity dipped a bit in high sec killing of NPCs, dropping 5.1% at a time the number should increase. Player ship deaths remained flat with a little additional activity in factional warfare and insurrection sites. But perhaps surprisingly, players slowed down killing each other in null sec, with player ship deaths declining 8%. I guess the Imperium's takeover of the cluster's south and south-east so the organization can move out of Delve slowed down activity.

Year-over-year, though, activity is still up. The kill exchange incentives the developers installed still distort the high sec ship kill numbers although players killed NPCs at increased rates. The big numbers are in null sec, as three months into a null sec expansion we see year-over-year growth. The ratting activity is most telling as the number of NPCs killed in null rose 32.6% compared to the number killed in September 2023.

 

With CCP's change in focus to null sec I'll also look at the engine that keeps EVE Online afloat financially: null sec PvE. While numbers are not climbing, players are presumably adapting to the new Equinox sov system slower than I think the developers anticipated. At least, that's my opinion based on the latest patches and the way the dev blogs try to cajole the null sec alliances to adapt to the new system. Of course, the Imperium is probably adapting in a way unanticipated by the devs, with the number of dead NPCs not rising as expected. Yes, always blame the Goons.

Numbers should rise in October as the weather gets colder and Crimson Harvest occupies everyone's attention. I do have to wonder if the SKINR system brought in enough income to tear apart previous financial estimates or if players logging in and shooting things in internet space is a good barometer of how the EVE Online is doing in the eyes of our overlords in Anyang. I guess we'll see next month.

EVE: Galaxy Conquest To Launch October 29th

I'm a week behind the announcement, but due to the importance of the news I do need to make a post. On the Q2 2024 earnings call investors were told they should expect the EVE franchise to earn at least ₩20 billion in revenue every quarter. A part of that is the launch of the new games under development at CCP Games. The first of those games, EVE: Galaxy Conquest, is due to launch on 29 October. I'm pretty sure CCP won't mind if I copy/paste from the press release announcing a cinematic trailer for the new game. 

The cinematic trailer

REYKJAVÍK, Iceland – September 26, 2024 - CCP Games today announced the official launch date for EVE Galaxy Conquest, the free-to-play 4X strategy game that brings the intense player-driven conflict of New Eden to mobile devices. Aspiring Commanders can prepare for galactic warfare on October 29, 2024, when the game launches worldwide on iOS and Android devices. To mark this occasion, CCP has released a breathtaking cinematic trailer and opened pre-registration in the Apple App Store and Google Play Store.

Developed by CCP Games’ Shanghai studio, EVE Galaxy Conquest transports the intense player-driven conflict of EVE Online’s renowned universe to mobile devices. Nefarious forces have unleashed an unprecedented assault, overwhelming the established Empires. To combat this extreme threat, Empire leaders have initiated the Valhalla System, resurrecting heroic Commanders to spearhead the fight in retaking New Eden. Choose your Empire and form fleets with iconic ships from EVE Online to dominate the galaxy, whether by forming alliances or acting alone in a seasonal battle for factional supremacy. Build unstoppable armadas, form corporations with allies, and vie to conquer the cosmos itself.

“October 29 marks the day when Commanders will rise to reclaim New Eden from the forces that seek to destroy it,” said Bing Mikael Xi, EVE Galaxy Conquest’s executive producer and CCP Shanghai’s General Manager. “The galaxy's fate hangs in the balance, and we can’t wait to see the alliances and rivalries that will shape its future.”

The cinematic trailer plunges viewers into the heart of New Eden’s crisis, showcasing the fall of the great Empires to an unprecedented pirate assault, the activation of the mysterious Valhalla System, and the resurrection of legendary Commanders tasked with leading the counterattack.

“EVE Galaxy Conquest translates the vast, player-driven universe of EVE Online to the palm of your hand in a new 4X experience,” said Michael Lee, Brand Director at CCP Shanghai. “Whether you choose to forge alliances or stand alone, your decisions will shape the future of the galaxy.”

In order to ensure meeting Pearl Abyss' financial goals for the franchise, EVE Galaxy Conquest will need to earn ₩3-4 billion ($2.2 million to $3 million) per quarter until the two games in the development pipeline, the FPS game EVE Vanguard and MMO blockchain-based EVE Frontier, come online. Due to the activity levels seen in EVE Online over the summer, do not expect overall franchise sales to meet Anyang's ₩20 billion quarterly goal on the next earnings call, as EVE Galaxy Conquest did not launch in the 3rd quarter. Then again, I believe the plan was always for the new mobile game to launch in the 4th quarter.

EVE Online Patch Notes: Skyhook Enhancements And FAQ

CCP is in the process of dropping the last of the Equinox sovereignty system into EVE Online's null security space before the winter expansion arrives in the next month or two. Yesterday's patch updated orbital skyhooks, one of the lynchpins of the new sov system. The deadline for switching to Equinox sov is Tuesday, 29 October. Not much time which is why CCP also published an FAQ for what is coming up next. I figured having both the FAQ and patch notes in one place might be helpful. I'll start with the FAQ.

Frequently Asked Questions

 

What happens to my old upgrades and territorial claim units (TCUs)? 

Your old upgrades and existing TCUs have had their reprocessing rates adjusted so you will get back the full bill of materials upon reprocessing them. 

When will the grace period for removing rigs end? 

On 29 October at 11:00 UTC. 

What happens if I am in the process of building a supercapital manufacturing upgrade in a system that can no longer support it after the transition? 

The building process will be paused. If your system cannot physically install the necessary upgrades, the Game Masters will refund you for your build’s bill of materials. 

Where will information about skyhook vulnerability be visible? 

Vulnerable skyhooks will appear in the Agency and on the map. 

When can the secure bay be emptied? 

The secure bay can be emptied at any time. 

When a skyhook comes out of reinforced mode, is the next vulnerability period based on that timer or the original vulnerability timer? 

Skyhooks will always use the reinforcement timer to determine their next vulnerability period. 

How is the skyhook vulnerability window calculated? 

The vulnerability window for the skyhook is determined by its reinforcement timer, which is calculated using a normal distribution within a 3-hour standard deviation. The next vulnerability window is 72 hours +/- the variance from the normal distribution, shown below. 

Does this mean that the timer will start exactly every 3 days? 

Not quite. Initially, timers may seem to follow an exact 3-day cycle, but as the system continues to generate timers with random offsets, they will gradually start spreading more evenly across the days. Below is a worst-case scenario simulation of how the vulnerability windows distribute in a hypothetical situation where every skyhook had the same reinforcement timer. In practice, this will even out much faster.  

How long is the window to raid a skyhook before it becomes invulnerable? 

A skyhook will remain raidable for one hour after the vulnerability window opens. 

Will I see the skyhook timer anywhere in space, or will I have to warp to the skyhook to see it? 

All vulnerable skyhooks are visible through the Agency and on the map, and all pilots belonging the same corporation as the skyhook owner, with the correct roles, can see the vulnerability timers in a new tab on the structure browsers. 

However, if you do not belong to the same corporation as the owner, and if it is currently invulnerable, you will need to warp to the skyhook to see its timer. 

I started the post with the FAQ because I know how much people love reading patch notes. But anyone trying to figure out how to min/max orbital skyhook mechanics probably wants to read the details as well. Below are the patch notes for yesterday's update.

Patch Notes for 2024-10-1.1

Features & Changes:

Sovereignty:

• Skyhooks have now been updated to Upwell’s latest firmware → Equinox Update: Enhanced Skyhooks | EVE Online
  
  
• Skyhooks now have a Secure Bay and a Surplus Bay, rather than an Immature and Mature Bay.
  
  
• The Secure bay can be accessed by players on the ACL at any time, and 50% of all the materials harvested from the Skyhook enter into the secure bay.
  
  
• The Surplus bay can only be accessed through the Skyhook raiding gameplay, and contains the other 50% of the reagents generated.
  
  
• There is no longer any waste when raiding a Skyhook, you get 100% of the surplus bay contents on a successful raid, the secure bay is not affected.
  
  
• The Skyhook Reagent silo is now only vulnerable to being attacked during a 1 hour interval, every 3-4 days, the time period for the surplus bay is loosely based on the 6 hour exit window chosen by the Skyhook owner for their reinforcement timer.
  
  
• It should be noted that while it is likely for a Skyhook theft event to come out in a timezone favorable to the defender, Skyhooks theft events can actually happen at any time of the day. Skyhooks use a gaussian distribution to determine the next vulnerability window.

• In this example, a Skyhook has a 68.2% chance to come out sometime in the 17:00 to 23:00 window set by the defenders, but it does have also have a chance to come out at anytime of the day. There is a 27.2% chance that it will instead come out at some time in the 3 hour window before or after their preferred time, a 4.2% chance it will come out 6 hours before or after their preferred 6 hour long time window, or 0.2% chance to end up at a time in the completely opposite timezone.
  
  
• If a Skyhook is not raided during it’s 1 hour interval, then it will reschedule a new time, and the materials in the surplus bay will remain inside and effectively roll over, meaning the next time it’s vulnerable, if it was raided, it would have 6-8 days worth of reagents inside and so on.
  
  
• If a Skyhook is successfully raided, then its vulnerability will end early and reschedule, so any vulnerable Skyhook you raid will be guaranteed to have 3-4 days worth of reagents in it at minimum.
  
  
• If the Skyhook owner changes the reinforcement timer of a Skyhook, then the current scheduled vulnerability will not change, and the new reinforcement timer will only have an influence on the Skyhook when the next Skyhook theft vulnerability window is chosen.
  
  
• Skyhook owners can no longer offline or turn off Skyhooks on reagent planets (Ice/Lava).
  
  
• Skyhook owners with the Station Manager or Director roles can see the vulnerability timers of their Skyhooks remotely using the my Skyhook page on the structure browser.
  
  
• Skyhooks which are currently vulnerable can be seen by any player using the world map Vulnerable Skyhooks filter or by using the Colony Resources page in the Agency and choosing to view theft vulnerable Skyhooks.
  
  
• All Players can also see the vulnerability schedule of a Skyhook if they warp to the Skyhook grid.
  
  
• The Link period for players who are on the Skyhook Reagent ACL has been reduced to 5 minutes instead of 10 minutes.
  
  
• Skyhooks will immediately alert everyone within 2 jumps of a Skyhook if a "friendly theft" is activated, just like the notification which would happen if a regular raid was at the 5 minute mark.
  
  
• Skyhooks have a 50% chance to drop all of the contents in their Secure and Surplus bays when killed (just like regular player ships).

Cloud Imperium Games' Sales Up 13.7% YoY In Q3 2024

Cloud Imperium Games, makers of the under development video games Star Citizen and Squadron 42, maintained the revenue growth in the third quarter of 2024 according to statistics found on the CCU Game dashboard. The company followed up a 13.1% year-over-year growth in sales in the second quarter with a 13.7% increase in the third. September played a big part of the increase posting $6.9 million in sales, a 36.9% increase from September 2023's total of $5.0 million. For the first nine months of 2024, sales revenue as measured by the funding counter is $68.4 million, up 3.6% from last year's figure of $66.0 million over the same period.

For those who keep track of new accounts (aka "new citizens"), September's 19,243 was 70.2% smaller than the total of 64,682 in September 2023. For the quarter, CIG attracted the creation of 83,521 new paid accounts, an 80% decrease over Q2 2023's total of 150,383. For the first half of 2024, account generation is only down 31.4%, 346,062 accounts over the first 9 months of 2024 vs last year's number of 504,789.

Overall, the recorded sales tracked on the CCU Game dashboard is $725.9 million since the launch of the Kickstarter in October 2012. But Cloud Imperium has additional funding sources not tracked by the dashboard. Overall, the company has recorded $824.5 million in confirmed revenue (the funding page & the 2022 financial report).

• Sales/Pledges: $725.9 million (through 31 September 2024)
• Subscriptions: $33.0 million (through 31 December 2022)
• All other sources: $65.6 million (through 31 December 2022)

In addition, the company has received a total of $63.25 million in outside investment. According to the 2022 financial report, $4.8 million of the amount was returned to investors in 2020. Including the outside investment money, the total amount raised by CIG to create Squadron 42 and Star Citizen is $887.8 million.

Since the launch of Star Citizen's patch 3.23 in May, the company has experienced double-digit revenue growth from its cash shop. For the third quarter, the $1.7 million YoY revenue growth exceeded the 5-year average of $1.4 million. The company will need to continue that level of sales as average year-over-year revenue growth in the 4th quarter over the past 5 years has only been $6.5 million. Maintaining that level of growth would result in a rise of 12.7% in year-over-year sales. I have the feeling CIG is looking at the average year-over-year growth rate of 24% from 2019-2023, or almost double that amount, in order to pay all the bills.

Yoshi-P's Producer Live Letter 83 At The Tokoyo Game Show

Over the weekend Square Enix showed up to this year's Tokyo Game Show. For those Final Fantasy XIV players outside Japan the highlight was probably the Producer's Live Letter #83 broadcast live from the stage. With only 90 minutes to present the head of Creative Studio III, Naoki Yoshida (aka Yoshi-P), managed to pack in a lot of information to whet the appetites of players looking forward to patch 7.1. While the presentation was in Japanese, the sides, as usual, were produced with both Japanese and English text. For those outside the game, the FFXIV sub-Reddit not only has a Discord server but performs translation services for all presentations done without English translations.

The unofficial translation from the r/ffxiv translation team

The first bit of news is the name of patch 7.1, Crossroads, and the release date. Okay, Yoshi-P mixed up the name of the patch with a movie, Close Encounters of the Third Kind, but from the screenshots I don't think we will meet aliens in the patch. The release date was listed as mid-November, but if all goes according to schedule, we will get to play on 12 November. Personally I bet on the 12th and took a paid day off from work to try to play the patch at launch.

Crossroads will have a lot of different quests. Besides the standard continuation of the main story questline (MSQ), those who complete all the role quests in 7.0 will receive a new role quest to do in the next patch. The role quest isn't just limited to combat jobs. Those who complete all the Wachumeqimeqi crafting and gathering quests will also receive quests, which Yoshi-P described as a finale for the business district.

As is usual, the developers are adding a new Allied Society, the Pelupelu. The quests associated with the standings grind are combat quests, as also happened in Endwalker. The Allied Societies back in the first few expansions were known as tribal quests for those who haven't played past the free trial. 

The new Custom Deliveries NPC will have players heading north of the bridge to FFXIV's version of the southwestern United States. Nitowikwe, a female Hrothgar, apparently will set up at or near the rail station in Shaaloani.

Oh, and the Hildibrand saga will once again appear in the game. Yoshi-P said during the presentation that 7.1 is sort of a prologue for the Dawntrail version of Hildibrand. 

Those who like doing combat related content hopefully will see the upcoming content and feel satisfied. First comes a new 4-character dungeon and 8-character trial for the MSQ. The savage versions of the content will probably release two weeks after the launch of Crossroads.

Next comes alliance raids. That's right, players will get more than one raid. The new regular alliance raid series is Echoes of Vana'diel. A cross-over with Final Fantasy XI, the 24-character raid will not follow the layout of its FFXI version. But then the developers also created a more challenging raid series, The Cloud of Darkness (Chaotic). The new type of Chaotic content is supposed to be more savage than extreme in difficulty. The Cloud of Darkness is also using a changed reward system that gives an incentive to repeatedly clear the content and help other players to do the same. A bit different than the current system that only allows one clear per week.

And finally the new Ultimate raid is based around Ryne and Gaia, Futures Rewritten. Expect lots of callbacks to the Eden series. The Ultimate will appear one or two weeks after the launch of Crossroads.

Yoshi-P also talked about two duty-related items. The first is the development team has begun adding non-MSQ duties to the Duty Support system. Expect to see the level 20 duty Halatali in the Duty Support list in Crossroads. But Yoshi-P warned not to expect the conversion of all the non-MSQ dungeons quickly. As in expecting the conversion to finish within the next 10 years. 

What I do wonder is if the effort to convert non-MSQ dungeons is related to the Grand Company dungeons. Halatali is the lowest level dungeon players can run with their Squadrons. I would think Yoshi-P would not want to maintain a second set of dungeons anymore.

The second development is adding an additional set of training missions at level 49. Currently players get a tutorial around level 15 to help teach about certain concepts before entering their first dungeon. Some of the mechanics confuse players when first encountered. A popular one is a new player getting a stacking marker and thinking they are supposed to run away from other players. An advanced tutorial showing mechanics introduced after A Realm Reborn would come in handy.

I should also point out the Dawntrail MSQ will become available in New Game Plus in Crossroads. Why weren't they added once completing the MSQ? I don't know. But I will finally use the feature to take a look back at Heritage Found, as the zone changes radically after the player has finished the MSQ in the area.

PvP won't receive any content love until patch 7.2 when the developers plan big updates for Frontline. Until then, each job will receive new PvP actions, except for the newest jobs added in Dawntrail. Also, changes to hit detection are coming in 7.1. Some attacks, like the machinist's limit break and warrior's primal rend, would register the effect of the attack before the animation completed. That issue is resolved, allowing healers to throw shields on their teammates more effectively.

The Gold Saucer is receiving an update to Doman Mahjong. Players will have the ability to purchase voiced reactions and commentary from the Scions for MGP. I understand a lot of Mahjong players signed up for FFXIV just to play Mahjong online. Yoshi-P said he was most scared of Y'shtola.

Finally come the housing updates. Players will now have the ability to select interior designs from different residential areas regardless of the location of the plot. Also, the developers are adding new interior designs without pillars. Players won't have to remove their interior decorations before changing the design of their homes, but will have to place everything back manually.

Coming in a later patch (not 7.1!!!) Yoshi-P plans on turning housing into TARDIS. That's right, if Yoshi-P can include Star Trek references in Stormblood (remember the Kobayashi Maru fishing area?), why not throw in a little Dr. Who as well? Owning a cottage will no longer mean not having the interior of a mansion. Yoshi-P warned utilizing the option will cost lots of gil, but in the future a housing plot will just represent the outside area available for decoration and holding events. But details are still forthcoming, such as any potential increases in item caps, etc.

Not bad for an hour presentation. Part 2 of the live letter will come when Yoshi-P is back in the office. At that time I expect a lot more details for not just Crossroads but the rest of the Dawntrail patches. Okay, perhaps teasers for patches 7.2 and beyond. But I have the feeling the upcoming content drops will peak interest in FFXIV, at least for a little while.

Will Throne And Liberty End A Cloud Imperium Narrative?

For those who haven't kept up on the news, NCSoft's new MMORPG, Throne and Liberty, is launching as a free-to-play game in the West though Amazon Games. While the global launch is on 1 October, the game launched in Korea back in December 2023. When I asked Copilot about the game's unique features, the first two items stuck out to me.

Throne and Liberty offers several unique features that set it apart from other MMORPGs:

1. Guild-Based Combat: Engage in epic battles against dozens to thousands of players and fantastic creatures in group battles and massive Castle Sieges¹².
   
   
2. Dynamic World: The game features a vast, seamless, and ever-changing world with towering cliffs, cavernous dungeons, and consequential day/night cycles that impact gameplay and abilities¹².

Sources: (1) The Official THRONE AND LIBERTY Website. (2) THRONE AND LIBERTY | Xbox. 

Castle Sieges sounded interesting so I asked specifically about the PvP feature.

Castle Sieges in Throne and Liberty are large-scale PvP events where guilds and alliances compete to control castles. Here are some key aspects:

Objectives

• Attackers: Their goal is to breach the castle defenses and seize control of the throne room.
• Defenders: They must protect the castle and repel the attackers¹.

Mechanics

• Siege Weapons: Both sides can use siege weapons like Golems and Gigantrite to gain an advantage¹.
• Hidden Entry Points: Attackers can use hidden entry points to infiltrate the castle¹.
• Respawn Points: Strategic respawn points are available to both attackers and defenders to keep the battle dynamic¹.

Strategy

• Coordination: Successful sieges require tight coordination and strategy among guild members.
• Tactics: Utilizing the environment, siege weapons, and morphing abilities can turn the tide of battle¹.

Rewards

• Victory: Winning a siege grants control of the castle, which can provide various in-game benefits and resources¹.

Sources: (1) Castle Siege War PVP Event Guide - Throne and Liberty - Maxroll.gg. https://maxroll.gg/throne-and-liberty/events/castle-siege-guide.

Although I'm a PvE player, I play games with large-scale PvP. So how big are Castle Sieges? In an interview with PcGamesN, Amazon globalization design manager Daniel Lafuente indicated in Korea the game had successfully supported a 1700 character fight. I managed to find a video of a 2300 character fight supposedly verified by NCSoft and another claiming over 3000 participants. I've included the hyperlinks for those wishing to see what large fights in Throne and Liberty look like.

I've also watched some quick reviews which indicate the server performance on the global servers now accessible during the current early access period is fast enough that few if any loading screens appear.

Back in July I wrote about the server meshing wars we would see emerge between Cloud Imperium, makers of Star Citizen, and Intrepid Studio's Ashes of Creation in October. Star Citizen even published a self-congratulatory video about how their success in developing server meshing technology.

One of the CIG developers even stated, "I don't think we could have done this anywhere else. Nowhere else would have the patience to really develop this kind of tech on the promise of something that might happen." Another opined, "I don't think there is another game company on the planet that can do what we're doing. We can take risk to produce amazing technologies that other game companies simply can't take. I'm pretty convinced that this couldn't be done anywhere else."

And that is where Throne and Liberty comes into the picture. NCSoft is using Unreal Engine 4 to create EVE-sized PvP experiences. Not the mega battles that set records, but still 2,000 character fights is nothing to sneeze at. Ashes of Creation is also touting its ability to also support large scale fights and seamless open-world experiences using their proprietary game engine built around Unreal Engine 5. The Alpha 2 tests will utilize what sounds very close to what CIG calls dynamic server meshing as Intrepid already uses a static server mesh for its game worlds. As for Star Citizen, CIG's CryEngine-based Star Engine is struggling to support 500 players in current testing.

And this is where the Cloud Imperium narrative goes off the tracks. I've heard so many Star Citizen content creators parrot the CIG line that CIG is not only at the leading edge of the tech to make large-scale virtual worlds possible, but the only ones who think doing so is worthwhile. And yet, here is NCSoft producing a game that currently vastly outperforms the server capacity of Star Citizen. Even worse for the narrative, Intrepid Studios is also working on the problem using Unreal Engine 5, the technological successor to UE4. 

Meanwhile, CIG is stuck using a customized version of CryEngine, which gaming companies have abandoned in favor of UE5. Perhaps for single-player games like Squadron 42 the Star Engine will work wonderfully. But as for massively multi-player games, CIG may have chosen to follow a technological dead end.

Crimson Harvest 2024 Confirmed To Launch On October 3rd

Today CCP announced the Crimson Harvest, EVE Online's longest running seasonal event, will once again run for a full month. The event begins next week on a Thursday, 3 October, and ends on 5 November. While the modern CCP may shy away from the event's beginnings, I always go back to watch the original Scope video introducing the event.

While available in every area of space, the choicest areas to engage with Crimson Harvest sites will be Derelik and Blood Raider-occupied Delve. Perhaps the next major war in that area should bear the name Omar's Blessing instead of a Goonswarm-inspired name.

While no patch notes are yet available, I did find some good information on the special event website. The basic overview hasn't changed much over the years.

• Pick your side in the bloody conflict between the Blood Raider Convenant and the Order of Tetrimon.
  
  
• Look for horrific combat and hacking sites throughout highsec, lowsec, nullsec, and wormhole systems, as well as Pochven.
  
  
• Combat sites will appear as anomalies in the probe scanner.
  
  
• Hacking sites will appear as cosmic signatures that require scanning down using a probe launcher and scanner probes.
  
  
• Scavenge the remains of your wrecked rivals for improved loot drops.

Something new to the event are components for the SKINR system will drop. At this point I wouldn't be surprised if SKINR items were handed out to visitors to CCP's studio in Reykjavik.

The season of slaughter brings budding SKINdustrialists a cornucopia of design elements to bring their most twisted creations to life, including the Brutal Splatter pattern, Steel Violet, Ritual Gourd Satin, Savant Carmine Satin, Anointed Dead pattern, and much more. Log in every day, complete brutal challenges, and loot the wrecks of your victims to uncover each component.

And of course, CCP will provide streamers in the EVE Partners program with Twitch drops.

Oh, and I almost forgot about the daily login rewards. The dev blog didn't go into great detail, but the event site is showing Omega (subcription accounts) can receive:

• Astero Deathglow Remnant SKIN
• Avalanche Deathglow Remnant SKIN
• Harvest Anti-Disruptor Booster II
• Crimson Harvest Fireworks Crate
• 26,500 EverMarks
• 650,000 Skill Points.

At this time the information about the rewards for points timeline is not available.

I can remember a time when players thought the Crimson Harvest was a dumb idea and no one would ever take to the idea of a developer driven event. Nine years later the war between the Blood Raider Covenant and the Order of Tetrimon continues on. Sometimes EVE players really do adapt and accept new ideas if the ideas are sound in the first place.

Upcoming Updates To EVE Online's Orbital Skyhooks

Today CCP published a dev blog without dropping a corresponding patch for EVE Online's Tranquility shard. The subject of the dev blog are a set of upcoming buffs to orbital skyhooks. I imagine the word is coming out now so players can adjust to the changes, as some may impact the markets. Also, I have the feeling the developers may include the beginning of this year's Crimson Harvest in the same patch that implements the changes to orbital skyhooks.

The Upwell Consortium has closely monitored the performance of its revolutionary Equinox suite, and following extensive feedback from power users, significant enhancements are set to be rolled out in an orbital skyhook security update coming in early October. A certain vulnerability to raiding will be addressed, taking some of the advantage away from attackers seeking to raid skyhooks. These changes will bolster the attractiveness of the structures by improving their output while also reducing the logistical burdens placed on their owners. 

The first two changes listed in the dev blog will address vulnerabilities to raiding. First, the developers have cut down the window owners of the structures will need to worry about defending the basis of their infrastructure.

To address the imbalance in raid dynamics, orbital skyhooks will only be vulnerable to raids during specific windows that are visible to all pilots. These periods are based on the structure owner’s preference, but feature a significant randomized offset, introducing an element of unpredictability. As a result, defenders will have better opportunities to plan their defenses, while raiders must operate within tighter, more strategic timeframes. This shift will reduce the constant pressure on skyhook owners, who will no longer need to be on high alert around the clock, while still preserving the opportunities for intense, tactical conflict. 

Next, raiders can't take all the contents of orbital skyhooks, thus allowing sov holders a minimum level of supply for their infrastructure needs.

An important adjustment to orbital skyhooks coming with this update is the employment of a dual storage system that splits resource output between a secure bay and a surplus bay. The secure bay will ensure that half of all produced reagents (magmatic gas or superionic ice) are protected, available only to the owner and their approved access list, or upon the destruction of the skyhook. This ensures a stable flow of resources for owners without overwhelming loss to raids. Meanwhile, the surplus bay will hold the other half, which will be vulnerable during the raiding windows. Attackers can claim the entire contents of the surplus bay, which has a 100% drop rate during raids, offering significant rewards while maintaining the competitive drive in nullsec. 

I'd heard that some sov holders had taken to raiding their own skyhooks to ensure they had at least some supplies for their infrastructure. I wonder if the two-bay system will impact that. Given the min-maxing that occurs in null security space, I'm highly skeptical.

As I don't live in null sec I really don't follow these items on the market, but apparently the devs have decided the reagents must flow.

Another important aspect of these skyhook enhancements will result in greater efficiency, leading to a significant increase in the amount of reagents extracted and, therefore, flowing into the market, directly impacting the entire economy of New Eden. The streamlined system will reduce operational friction while boosting overall productivity. Alliances operating in nullsec can expect more consistent resource yields from their orbital skyhooks, as well as less logistical work, making them an even more valuable asset for holding territory and fueling war efforts. 

That last part confuses me. I thought Equinox sov was based around the amount of resources an alliance could extract using their orbital skyhooks. No need to sell the structures given the ending of the dev blog.

With the upcoming enhancements to skyhook operations, this is a great time to adopt the Equinox sovereignty system. These updates will significantly reduce the daily burden of managing orbital skyhooks while offering greater output, making them more valuable to owners and alliances alike. 

In addition, the Upwell Consortium has announced that on 29 October, transitioning to the new system will become mandatory for all capsuleers. Those who have yet to make the switch are encouraged to do so before this deadline to ensure a smooth transition and avoid disruptions. 

For those not living in null, the last paragraph is perhaps the most important. That gives us an idea of when the winter expansion will hit Tranquility. The only question is how long CCP will give the late adopters of orbital skyhooks to get used to the new system. I'm betting Crimson Harvest ends on 7 November with an expansion launch on 12 November. But if CCP is in a rush, I can see the expansion launch on 5 November.

In Space, There Is No Atmosphere To Have An Airdrop

Last week I visited the EVE: Frontier Discord and found an announcement I found puzzling.

As those who have registered via https://community.evefrontier.com/ will know, there is currently a raffle and points system in place as part of the registration process for PHASE IV.

!!!  To be clear !!!

Raffle tickets and points will not allow you to earn any fiscal rewards: you will not earn or obtain any EVE Tokens from acquiring them 

Raffle Tickets and Points will only be applicable for the following prizes:

• An EVE Frontier Gaming PC
• $500 Icelandair Vouchers
• Fanfest Tickets
• PHASE IV Posters
• Other fun things

Of course, my confusion came from not knowing something about crypto and the practices surrounding crypto projects. Apparently some crypto-related website decided to link to the EVE: Frontier registration page listed above and tell all the crypto-bros around the globe that CCP engages in a practice known as airdrops. CCP immediately posted otherwise.

Now, if I didn't know better, I'd think an airdrop was something like a Twitch drop in which people are rewarded for watching a Twitch channel for a period of time. So pulled up Copilot and started down the rabbit hole known as the crypto world. According to Copilot:

A cryptocurrency airdrop is a marketing strategy used by blockchain projects to distribute free tokens or coins to members of the crypto community. The main goal is to raise awareness and encourage adoption of the new cryptocurrency¹².

Here are some key points about airdrops:

• Distribution: Tokens are sent directly to users’ wallets, often for free or in exchange for small promotional tasks like retweeting a post or signing up for a newsletter¹².
• Types: There are different types of airdrops, including standard airdrops (where users express interest and provide a wallet address) and exclusive airdrops (targeting specific users based on their existing holdings or activities)¹.
• Purpose: Airdrops aim to increase the visibility of a project, create a wider distribution of tokens, and incentivize users to engage with the project²³.

While airdrops can be a great way to get involved with new projects, it’s important to be cautious as some airdrops may be scams attempting to steal personal information¹.  

In the interest of full transparency (and because I'm too lazy to edit the html code) I've listed Copilot's sources below.:

(1) Cryptocurrency Airdrop: What Is It and How Does It Work - Investopedia. 
(2) Crypto Airdrop: What's an Airdrop and Why Crypto Airdrops Are Issued. 
(3) What Is a Crypto Airdrop? - Binance Academy
(4) What are Crypto Airdrops?

Investopedia, a source I'm already familiar with and trust! I looked to see the pros and cons of cryptocurrency airdrops listed in the Investopedia. The pros raised an eyebrow.

Pros

• Rewards early adopters or people engaged with a project with a stake in the project
• Raises awareness of a project due to the marketing aspect of an airdrop
• Encourages the use and adoption of a newly issued token
• May distribute tokens across holders in a manner that would not have naturally happened in an open market

I would think in the context of creating a video game, and especially marketing a game to non-crypto enthusiasts, those pros aren't really positive aspects. And the negatives were worse:

Cons

• May pose security threats if wallet holders must connect wallets to suspicious sites to claim airdrop
• May prove to be "pump-and-dump" schemes
• May dissuade some investors from participating if they prefer different ways of distributing tokens
• May prove to be worthless if the token does not have liquidity on an exchange

Investopedia seemed to call the first point a "dusting attack", so I asked Copilot to provide a little more information.

In a dusting attack, small amounts of cryptocurrency, known as “dust,” are sent to numerous wallet addresses. The primary goal is to track these addresses and potentially de-anonymize the wallet owners¹².

Here’s how airdrops can be involved in dusting attacks:

1. Distribution of Dust: Attackers use airdrops to distribute tiny amounts of cryptocurrency to a large number of wallets. This “dust” is often so small that it goes unnoticed by the wallet owners¹².

2. Tracking Transactions: Once the dust is in the wallets, attackers monitor the blockchain to track the movement of these small amounts. By analyzing the transaction patterns, they can link different wallet addresses and potentially identify the owners²³.

3. Privacy Invasion: The ultimate aim is to invade the privacy of the wallet owners. By linking wallet addresses, attackers can gather information that might be used for phishing scams, cyber-extortion, or other malicious activities²³.

To protect yourself from dusting attacks, it’s important to regularly check your wallet for small, unexpected deposits and avoid interacting with them. Using privacy-focused wallets and mixing services can also help maintain anonymity.

Sources: (1) Gemini; (2) Cointelegraph; (3) BeInCrypto

I also looked at the second con. I know about "pump and dump" schemes and that I never want to fall victim to one. I turned to Investopedia once again for an explanation.

According to the Journal, crypto pump-and-dump schemes operate in a fashion reminiscent of the early days of the stock market. During that time, a group of traders wreaked havoc in the markets by manipulating prices through purchasing in groups.  

A similar dynamic exists in cryptocurrency markets. A horde of traders drum up enthusiasm for a coin by evangelizing it on multiple channels, including social media. Subsequently, they instigate a coordinated purchasing frenzy for it. As the coin’s price climbs, other traders, unconnected to the pump-and-dump group, also latch onto the buying spree, further boosting its price. The coordinated action is repeated, except this time around, in selling the coin when it reaches a certain price target. This causes a sharp decline in its price. While the pump-and-dump group makes profits, other traders who purchased the coin based on false promises are left holding losses.

The favored medium of communication for traders involved in pump-and-dump are messaging apps Telegram and Discord. Traders form groups on both platforms. Such groups charge between $50 to $250 for membership. In some cases, traders can choose to evangelize the service to others and become members. Binance, a Hong Kong-based cryptocurrency exchange, is a favorite for such operations because it lists small coins with low liquidity that makes them ideal candidates for manipulation. 

I asked Copilot to fill in how airdrops fit into pump-and-dump schemes.

Airdrops can be misused in these schemes in several ways:

1. Creating Hype: Fraudsters distribute free tokens to a large number of people to create buzz and excitement around the cryptocurrency. This can attract more investors, driving up the price artificially.

2. False Sense of Value: By giving away tokens, scammers can create a false sense of legitimacy and value for the cryptocurrency. New investors might believe the token has real potential and invest more money.

3. Dumping Tokens: Once the price is sufficiently inflated, the scammers sell off their large holdings of the token at the peak price. This sudden sell-off causes the price to crash, leaving other investors with worthless tokens.

I pretty sure I know why CCP made such a point to quickly knock down the effort of that random cryptocurrency related site. If EVE: Frontier becomes associated with any shady or illegal activity, the game is dead before launch. From what I see, airdrops come too close for comfort.