EVE Vanguard: Operation Avalon Begins Today

This morning I woke up and checked the EVE Online patch notes like I do every Tuesday morning. I saw Operation Avalon, the event for Fenris Creations' new extraction shooter attached to EVE Online, but no article on the event itself. I guess I woke up too early, because as I check during lunch I see information on the EVE launcher, the main EVE Online website, the Steam page, and even the Fenris Creations corporate website. 

Now, I don't have a lot of time because I'm on my lunch break. What I am going to do is copy the press release from the corporate website. Why? Because with Operation Avalon, the game officially is in alpha. Not pre-Alpha like Star Citizen has been in for the past 13 years. An honest-to-goodness alpha. I want to mark down the occasion on the blog. Besides, I was in Las Vegas back in 2018 when Project Nova crash and burned at its public debut. I'd like to post something positive about a Fenris FPS game for a change.

LONDON, England – July 7, 2026 – Today, Fenris Creations launched Operation Avalon, the first time-limited Alpha playtest for EVE Vanguard, the in-development extraction-adventure FPS connected to the iconic sci-fi MMO EVE Online. Available to access for free from now until July 20 on Steam and the EVE Launcher, Operation Avalon brings EVE Vanguard’s core experience into sharper focus, with more responsive combat, expanded enemies, higher-pressure extraction, deeper progression, and escalating risks and rewards the longer players stay deployed. The further Warclones push, the harder the planet pushes back.

Watch the EVE Vanguard: Operation Avalon launch trailer here:

For a deeper look at what players can expect from Operation Avalon, including the goals of the Alpha playtest, watch the briefing here:

Set on the hostile planets of New Eden, EVE Vanguard casts players as brutal Warclones, technologically immortal mercenaries who can be redeployed after death. In Operation Avalon, players drop onto dangerous planetary battlefields to raid enemy sites, gather valuable technology and intelligence, fight rival players and hostile forces, then extract before the situation turns against them. What they recover helps fuel longer-term Warclone progression and supports the fight to establish Avalon, a future sanctuary for Warclones beyond the reach of New Eden’s empires, while the intelligence uncovered on the surface begins to influence the wider conflict unfolding across New Eden.

“Operation Avalon is the moment EVE Vanguard starts to feel like itself,” said Scott Davis, Game Director for EVE Vanguard. “You drop in with a plan, the planet pushes back, and suddenly you’re deciding whether to run for extraction or push your luck and risk losing what you’re carrying. That tension is the game. We want players to feel powerful, vulnerable, and very aware that every choice on the ground has consequences.”

“Operation Avalon is a critical step for EVE Vanguard because it marks our move from experimentation into a more focused Alpha phase,” said Snorri, Executive Producer for EVE Vanguard. “The long pre-alpha period has given us the time to refine and battle-test the foundations of the game. With Operation Avalon, players will experience EVE Vanguard as it was always meant to be: a more complete, cohesive vision where Warclones fight to build Avalon and influence the wider conflict unfolding across New Eden. We’ll continue to evolve that vision together with our players as we head toward persistent 24/7 Alpha later this year.”

Operation Avalon introduces:

• Lost Convoy Map: Deploy into Lost Convoy, a planetary combat zone set around an Upwell salvage recovery site, where wrecked ships, dig sites, and refineries create high-value targets to raid.
  
  
• Overhauled Gunplay and Weapons: Gunplay has been rebuilt to make weapons feel heavier, clearer, and more responsive in combat. Players can earn, manufacture, buy, and deploy with five additional weapons, including a bolt carbine, laser pulse DMR, beam rifle, scatter cannon, and slug launcher.
  
  
• Revamped Enemy Response: Mordu’s Legion now escalates its response as players move through key sites, sending in smarter patrols, drones, marksmen, troop drops, and imposing Heavy Oppressors. The deeper players push into contested sites, the harder it becomes to survive and extract.
  
  
• Harmonic Bridge Extraction: Recover equipment and resources through Harmonic Bridges, extraction points that must be found and activated during a deployment, burning the Warclone out of the battlefield in the process. Orbital bombardments shut them down over time, leaving fewer ways out the longer players stay.
  
  
• Resource Gathering and Permanent Progression: Operation Avalon expands the ways players build strength between deployments. Gather resources, earn Deathmarks, unlock blueprints, use vendors, manufacture equipment, and develop longer-term progression that persists beyond what is carried into a single deployment.
  
  
• Refined Looting: Looting now creates greater tension, with items revealed over time as players search enemies, containers, and sites. Choosing when to keep searching, when to move, and when to extract can be the difference between building your arsenal and leaving empty-handed.
  
  
• Fueling Platform Raid: Track down a Mordu’s Legion Reserve Leader, recover a keycode, and unlock the Fueling Station. Inside, players face a tougher combat encounter with some of the strongest rewards available in the deployment.
  
  
• A Wider War Across New Eden: Operation Avalon begins connecting Warclone deployments with the wider EVE Universe. In EVE Vanguard, Warclones fight to recover valuable resources and intelligence in support of Avalon’s future from the surface. In EVE Online, capsuleers can hunt roaming convoys, secure Vanguard Tokens, and exchange them within their empire’s space to influence where Avalon will ultimately be established.

The battle for Avalon has begun. Boots are already on the ground, and extraction is not guaranteed. For every Warclone deployed to the surface, the rule is simple: adapt, or die. Operation Avalon runs now through July 20, 2026, on Steam and the EVE Launcher. In November 2026, EVE Vanguard will move into persistent 24/7 Alpha access, available exclusively via the EVE Launcher on PC.

The Final Board Of Directors' View Of CCP Games From The 2025 Consolidated Financial Reports

Two weeks ago the 2025 financial reports for Pearl Abyss Iceland and CCP ehf came out on the website of the Icelandic national taxing authority. Croda over on marketsforISK did his annual analysis on the finances of Pearl Abyss Iceland. But something changed this year. On 6 May the three Pearl Abyss members of CCP ehf's five person board of directors resigned as a result of the management buyout and rebranding of the company to Fenris Creations.

I'm going to try to do something rather foolish and write a couple of posts looking forward based on the 2025 financials. But as the statement in CCP ehf's filings was dated 21 April 2026, what follows is probably the last statement from the old Pearl Abyss dominated board. Except for a couple of points of clarification, what follows below is the statement of the board before the management buyout occurred.

CCP ehf. designs, develops, markets, and operates immersive virtual worlds and games accessible over the internet. Our mission is to create virtual worlds more meaningful than real life. Headquartered in Iceland, the Company operates subsidiaries in the United Kingdom, China, and the United States.

I just want to point out the Pearl Abyss Iceland is different from the now Fenris Creations. "Pearl Abyss Iceland ehf. is a holding company established in 2018. In October 2018 the Company bought all issued and outstanding shares in CCP ehf." As far as I can tell, Pearl Abyss still owns Pearl Abyss Iceland.

Operations during the year

In 2025, CCP generated revenues of USD 70.3 million, compared to USD 70.4 million in the previous year. Notably, game revenue increased by USD 4.8 million (8%) year-on-year, reflecting strong ongoing engagement across EVE Online. However, the Company reports a net loss of USD 14.0 million compared to a USD 2.9 million loss in 2024. This is a continuation of CCP's deliberate and increased fully funded investment in multiple active development projects — including EVE Frontier, EVE Vanguard, and the Carbon open-source platform — which are scheduled to enter key release phases from mid-2026 onwards. These investments, while impacting short-term profitability, are central to CCP’s strategy and position the Company for strategic and sustainable growth in the years ahead. As of year-end, shareholders’ equity stood at USD 13.2 million, with an equity ratio of 21.5%, and total assets of USD 61.2 million. The Company employed 165 people at year-end, compared to 173 people at the beginning of the year.

Here once again I have to stop to provide figures from Pearl Abyss Iceland. PAI showed revenue of USD 65.3 million, compared to USD 60.2 million in 2024. The Group also reported a net loss of USD 28.8 million, compared to a USD 19.5 million net loss in 2024. The numbers for PAI are much worse than for CCP, meaning outside factors played a role even before the management buyout. Yes, Angelice Prime Foundation is involved, but that subject requires its own blog post or two.

During the year, the Group continued to expand the EVE Universe through major updates to EVE Online while advancing development across multiple new titles and platforms, alongside ongoing live operations. In January 2025, the Group published the EVE Online development roadmap, outlining two major expansions supported by continuous narrative events and systemic improvements designed to strengthen the player-driven economy and large-scale conflict across New Eden. 

Community engagement remained strong throughout the year. In February 2025, the Group announced that tickets for EVE Fanfest 2025 had sold out in record time, demonstrating the continued strength and global reach of the EVE community. 

I should point out "community engagement" was a very big topic on Pearl Abyss quarterly earnings calls. I'm not sure if that is one of the subjects the overlords in Anyang learned from CCP/Fenris.

The first expansion of the year, EVE Online: Legion, launched in May 2025. 'Legion' introduced new systems aimed at broadening participation in both economic and military gameplay, including features designed to support more flexible and accessible collaboration across player organizations. The expansion formed part of the Group’s ongoing strategy to evolve EVE Online’s sandbox by enabling new forms of player agency and contribution. 'Legion' continued to be refined through updates and live iteration throughout the year. 

This was the point in the year EVE Frontier also came into its own with its universe hosting 24/7 access to the game. I would have to wonder how the new board that took its seats over the last week or so would have written the above paragraph.

In November 2025, the Group released the second major expansion, EVE Online: Catalyst, focused on evolving the industrial and resource systems that underpin the game’s economy. 'Catalyst' introduced new resource flows, alongside improvements to exploration, navigation, and strategic mobility, reinforcing the foundations of New Eden’s player-driven ecosystem. Subsequent updates in early 2026 further expanded on these systems, supporting continued engagement and long-term economic balance. EVE Online maintained strong player engagement throughout the year and delivered its strongest revenue performance in several years. 

The comments about content released in 2026 leave a clue that content in the document isn't just about the past.

Significant progress was made during the year on EVE Frontier, a new hardcore space survival MMO set within a persistent single-shard universe. Frontier expands the EVE Universe into a new genre while introducing programmable infrastructure systems that enable players to build, automate, and operate complex in-game structures. During 2025, the Group expanded access through its Founder Access program and introduced multiple gameplay cycles, allowing early participants to engage with evolving systems and provide feedback that informs development. 

This is why I wonder about how the write-up was done. I'm used to seeing events pretty much documented in chronological order. Nothing wrong with ordering the content by game, but I wonder if a subtle message is being portrayed in a document almost no one will read. Probably not, but given the history of the company, one can never tell.

In October 2025, the Group announced a strategic collaboration with Mysten Labs and the Sui network to support the technological platform underlying EVE Frontier. This partnership provides scalable infrastructure for programmable in game systems and digital assets, supporting the development of a broader ecosystem of tools and services around the EVE Frontier platform. 

The above paragraph shows how Fenris looks at blockchain technology. As a ready-made scalable infrastructure. I'm not sure the rest of the world would apply the tech to game systems and digital assets. Perhaps if Frontier succeeds.

Development also progressed on EVE Vanguard, the Group’s sandbox first-person shooter set within the EVE Universe. In September 2025, the Group launched Operation Nemesis, a large-scale public playtest introducing new mission structures and gameplay systems, while demonstrating early integration between planetary combat and events occurring in EVE Online. EVE Vanguard continues to be developed in close collaboration with its player community as the Group works toward future release milestones. 

Given the ordering of the year by game, is anyone surprised by the first person shooter showing up third in the priorities? 

The Group also continued live operations of EVE Galaxy Conquest, the mobile strategy title developed by the Group’s Shanghai studio. The game extends the EVE Universe to mobile platforms, enabling players to engage in large-scale strategic conflict through fleet command, territorial control, and alliance-based gameplay, supported by ongoing content updates and live operations.

And finally the mobile game. I really have to wonder if the mobile game was pressed upon Fenris by Pearl Abyss. Black Desert Mobile was such a hit in its first few years I can well imagine the folks in the home office in Anyang thinks a mobile game would produce big money in a short amount of time.

I have not seen the forms listing the members of the new board of directors. But that is a subject for the future. For now, we are closing down the Crowd Control Productions chapter of Fenris Creations history.

Highlights From The EVE Fanfest 2026 Keynote

At the end of day 2 of the 2026 EVE Fanfest convention Fenris Creations (the studio formerly known as CCP Games) held its keynote presentation. I watched the presentation live and am just going to go through some of the notes I took of the approximately hour and a half session.

First, Fenris does have two mobile games related to the EVE universe, the NetEase-run EVE Echoes and the internally built EVE Galaxy Conquest. A lot of people disregard the mobile games, but they do bring in a not insignificant amount of revenue. According to the group's recently released financial accounts for 2025 Echoes probably brought in $4 million in 2025. And while no figure was given for Galaxy Conquest, cost of sales of $1.3 million lead me to believe mobile game revenue for the company was over 10% if not 15% of total game revenue. Thus, a subject to pay attention to.

EVE Echoes next expansion is titled Titan Descent. Galaxy Conquest was recently updated with pirate invasions, new ships, and a new map. Upcoming additions to GC are achievements, Gurista invasions, and relic explorations. And, like in EVE Online, the mobile game has its own player council.

Next up were player run tournaments in EVE Online. After a review of the Tuskers victory in Alliance Tournament XXI, Fenris announced host of AT XXII would be Amarr. Other player-run tournaments like Anger Gamex VII are supported by Fenris-created tools. Those tools should improve for the upcoming year's tournament season.

The EVE Partner program was mentioned, but I'm not sure exactly how much actually changed. The winners of the new content creator awards will be announced during the closing ceremonies.

Other partners besides players

I'm going to rush past the 1 billion scientific classifications EVE players have submitted over the past 10 years to Kickstarter news. Andrew Groen, the author of the Empires of EVE books, has a new project, The Archive. Covering the history of many MMORPGs besides EVE, the book has received enough support to be published. I backed the Empires of EVE books and just backed The Archive as well.

Now for the news most readers want to know: the summer expansion. Fenris Creations not only changed its name, but also the name format for EVE Online expansions. The next expansion, launching on 9 June, is Cradle of War.  The trailer wasn't too bad.

Since I started playing EVE in 2009 I've heard players wanting to include high sec in factional warfare. With Cradle of War that long held wish is coming true in the form of military campaigns. Players no longer have to engage in PvP in order to participate in FW.

Expansion highlights

FW apparently will now have an in-game interface to track the progression of the war. Each empire will always have a military campaign running for players to which players can contribute. These campaigns are built on the freelance jobs system introduced to New Eden in the Legion expansion in May 2025. 

For those wondering, all the changes planned will not show up in the CoW. The changes will take the next three expansions to implement.

Something I bet some will hate is the introduction of titles and achievements. A staple of MMORPGs not made in Iceland, I hope the system will complement the new starter space also coming in CoW. The region is known as Exordium and the 53-system region will be the first ever safe space in EVE. 

Of course, every EVE expansion must have new ships. CoW will introduce another line of faction navy destroyers and four Tech 2 Command Carriers, one for each empire. More information about the ships was promised during Saturday's EVE Online keynote address.

The next major news came from EVE Vanguard. The Vanguard devs let the world know that the game would enter alpha on 7 July with the introduction of Operation Avalon. The alpha will also launch a new map for the extraction shooter set in the EVE universe. The alpha's first playtest period will run from July 7-20 and be available on Steam. Eventually the shooter will tie into EVE Online, with Operation Avalon introducing the first economic tie-ins between the two games.

The final game presented was the debut of EVE Frontier. For those wondering who gave the presentation, that was Frontier's Creative Director FC MaximumCats. The presentation was more of an introduction to the game than anything else, with MaximumCats perhaps going a little over the top in the roleplay department. For that I blame the influence of FC Burger.

I've watched MaximumCats presentation a couple of times now. The one time people in the audience seemed really interested was the possibility of using Frontier's hyper-modularity to create their own spaceships. I have the feeling I'll want to dig into the EVE Frontier keynote scheduled to stream on Twitch at 1400 UTC. 

I don't want to go too far into some of Hilmar's takes on AI. He seemed to imply that AI programs like Deep Blue defeating Gary Kasparov and AlphaGo defeating Lee Sedol helped make the games more approachable to the general public, and more popular. If he is counting on such a thing happening with Google DeepMind's research into EVE Online, well, I think he took a wrong turn down the rabbit hole. But I can imagine Google DeepMind learning a lot of things about artificial intelligence studying EVE and its massive database of player interactions.

I didn't quite cover everything but the Fanfest keynote presentation is a general overview. The real details show up on the various keynotes covering EVE Online, EVE Vanguard, and EVE Frontier on Saturday.

Flying Solo In EVE: Prelude To Fanfest 2026

Last week was a pretty momentous week in the history of Fenris Creations, the studio formerly known as CCP Games. In a week normally focused around celebrating the launch of EVE Online (including associated sales) the business side came to the fore. But before looking ahead to the start of Fanfest on Thursday, let's take a quick look back at last week.

ACU up a bit last week

Last week hit a peak that probably won't be matched until the launch of the expansion. The celebrations of the 23rd anniversary of the launch of EVE Online saw the weekly average number of concurrent users logged into the game reach 26,000 +/- 500, another rise from the previous week. With the peak concurrent users for the week only 36,252 though, I'd guess the numbers came in at the lower range of the spread.

I think the long slog to completing tier 5 of the Capsuleer Day event activities might have had something to do with the lower numbers. I don't really feel like reaching the end of the event track on a second character. I started but not enthusiastically.

The price of PLEX up slightly last week

With the celebrations on-going and the Capsuleer Day event handing out a lot of PLEX, the market volumes went down. The amount of PLEX traded on the global PLEX market fell by 3.8% last week, with players spending 5.1% less exchanging PLEX for in game currency. I am waiting for the Fanfest sales to kick in over the weekend to influence the PLEX market for good or for ill.

Stats through the end of week 19

Normally I was start reviewing the first 10 days or so of the Capsuleer Day event, but another celebration occurred. The 23rd anniversary of the launch of EVE Online now marks the rebranding of CCP Games to Fenris Creations. Was the opening of EVE Fanfest a week later taken into account with the rebranding move or simply a coincidence? I'll go with the former.

I almost wish I was at Fanfest with access to the press events this year. Although, to be honest, I'd probably get tired of all the "FC" jokes that will be told at the event as everyone at Fenris gets a name change. Hopefully, though, press will do interviews with everyone from the senior director of Google DeepMind to some of the venture capitalists making the studio's escape from Anyang possible.

Since this year's article about the streaming schedule is up I thought I'd highlight the sessions I'll have an immediate interest in (all times in GMT/UTC):

Friday

13:00 UTC - The Infinite Game: FC Hellmar and Adrian Boloton Senior director at DeepMind. Opening remarks by the President of Iceland Halla Tómasdóttir.

16:30 UTC - EVE Fanfest Keynote: Some say it’s the highlight of the year. Others say it’s the highlight of the decade. Join Fenris developers live for the latest updates from the EVE Universe. Get an exclusive look at this summer’s expansion for EVE Online, new developments for EVE Vanguard and EVE Frontier, fresh updates on the Capsuleer Edda, and more.

Saturday

10:00 UTC - EVE Vanguard Keynote: Get the latest updates on what’s coming in EVE Vanguard, including new features, evolving gameplay systems, and the vision shaping the future of EVE’s upcoming extraction-adventure.

14:00 UTC - EVE Frontier Keynote: Awake eternally for a cold and hostile look at the past, present, and future of the EVE Frontier universe.

15:00 UTC - [Redacted] Expansion Unlocked: Get a much closer look at the EVE Online expansion coming this summer.

I know, more of a business interest than anything, but now that Fenris is independent again its more important than ever to see how the rebranded company plans on making money and staying independent.

My Predictions For 2026

Another year, another time to make a fool of myself by making predictions for the upcoming year. Personally I had a fairly good year but I don't place a lot of value on my fortune-telling skill. But I really do need to go back and review the predictions I made for 2025 and try to do a better job foretelling 2026.

Crowd Control Productions - Last year I predicted two things. First, that the company would meet Pearl Abyss' expectations of having at least ₩20 billion in revenue for each quarter of 2025. CCP has achieved that level of revenue for the last six quarters and with the launch of the Revenant expansion I don't see that changing.

The second prediction is more problematic. I predicted CCP would see a 10% growth in revenue, meaning either ₩90 billion or $64 million for the year. Through the first three quarters the totals were ₩65.5 billion/$46.4 million. Given the strength of the Catalyst expansion I still have an outside shot of getting this prediction correct but won't know until the next investors' call in February.

For 2026 I may go full fanboi on my predictions. CCP will continue to meet the ₩20 billion per quarter revenue guidance given to investors. I am also going to place a lot of faith in Vanguard and set my revenue prediction for the year at ₩99.0 billion/$70.0 million.

EVE Online - Don't worry, some of my predictions that involve both EVE and a sequel game in the IP will be listed with the other game. I'm going to give myself a half-a-point for calling the summer expansions a hodge-podge of ideas although I think Legion was heavily aimed at null sec. I was dead wrong about the winter expansion concentrating on The Deathless Circle. Instead players got a mining/industrial themed expansion. Players got armed industrial ships, not tech 2 Deathless Circle pirate ships.

In 2026 I am expecting the summer expansion to consist of a hodge-podge of ideas that won't fit nicely into the theme of the winter expansion. The summer expansion will launch in June with the introduction of a new pirate epic arc coming in July. I'm guessing something involving The Deathless Circle but Upwell counts as a pirate faction, right?

For the winter expansion, I think wormholers will receive a major update. CCP hasn't expanded the lore of the Sleepers in a long time. Considering the Drifters killed Empress Jamyl I back in 2015, wormholes and the lore is probably overdue for an update.

Now for a couple of predictions based on Jester's charts. First, the ending average concurrent users in 2026. Jester's graph is showing a 7-day moving average at the beginning of December of over 28,000 accounts logged in at one time. The 30-day moving average is moving upward and almost at 26,000 accounts. I am going to predict that at some point in 2026 the 7-day moving average of concurrent users will exceed 30,000 accounts and the 30-day moving average will end the year over 28,000 concurrent users.

Jester also has another chart displaying the average number of concurrent users logged in per year. Through November the number for 2025 was 22,635, or about 100 accounts less than 2024's average. I'm going to make the wild prediction that Jester's chart shows over 24,000 in 2026. I call the prediction wild as the amount would be the highest average amount of accounts logged in during a year since 2014's 27,490.

One last prediction. In 2025 the peak concurrent user mark for the year reached 41,322. In 2026 I predict the number will reach 42,500. I know, not much of an increase. But the increase would give 2026 the highest yearly PCU since the move to Alpha clones in January 2017.

EVE Vanguard - CCP Games does not have the greatest record with first person shooters. Last year I predicted a successful test of Vanguard in November or December. I'll take the cross-over Operation Nemesis event in September and October as being close enough to count. But I'll also take my prediction of the developers as shying away from null sec as a miss.

I am going to go out on a limb and say that Vanguard will indeed launch on Steam sometime in the third quarter of 2026. The delays for CCP's FPS games dating back to EVE Vegas 2018 are over.

EVE Frontier - I didn't really make a lot of predictions for Frontier in 2025. I did predict another round of venture capital funding but as far as I know that didn't happen. I'll have to count the next prediction as partially correct. CCP did announce how the developers have upgraded the Carbon engine to use Python 3.12 but EVE Online has not switched to the new version of the engine yet.

I will predict for Fanfest 2026 that CCP will present a video showing all the client differences between Online and Frontier. However, the video may not make it to the main stage of Harpa. I will also predict the crypto currency for Frontier will not appear for sale in 2026. If I'm wrong that means Pearl Abyss is in financial trouble and Crimson Desert flopped.

The mobile games - I am going to predict neither EVE Echoes or EVE Galaxy Conquest will shut down in 2026. That's about as far as I feel comfortable predicting.

Pearl Abyss - I managed to only make a prediction about the company returning to profitability in 2025. Once again, we'll need to wait until the February investors' call as the company only had made a net profit of ₩6.8 billion through the first 9 months of 2025. Given recent history the numbers could dip back into the red.

I will make one additional prediction about the South Korean game maker. Expect total revenue in 2026 to fall between ₩550 billion and ₩600 billion.

Black Desert Online - Looks like I was wrong about the revenue Black Desert would bring into Pearl Abyss' coffers in 2025. I predicted a 10% decline down to ₩215.0 billion. The IP, however, bounced back with ₩197.4 billion in revenue through the first three quarters of the year. The Black Desert IP may even see an increase in revenue if Pearl Abyss announces Q4 revenue exceeding ₩52.4 billion. Once again, we'll need to wait on the investors' call in February.

Crimson Desert - I finally got a prediction involving Pearl Abyss' upcoming single-player RPG mostly correct. I posted that I expected Pearl Abyss to announce in November the game would release in the first half of 2026. Pearl Abyss made the announcement in September.

My only prediction for the game is that between 2.5 million and 3 million copies of the game will sell in 2026.

Cloud Imperium Games - What a difference the leadership shakeup at Cloud Imperium had in 2025. Last year I made 4 predictions about CIG and got two totally wrong. First, I predicted a slight decline in year-over-year cash shop revenue down to $113 million. CIG is on pace for $155 million in revenue, an increase of over 30%. I was also wrong about sales during Invictus and IAE only totalling $46.8 million, with actual sales for the two biggest events on the calendar bringing in $59 million. The 15% reduction in new account creation I predicted for 2025 turned into a 45% increase instead. 

One I got partially correct was the prediction involving additional outside funding. I predicted Tencent would receive a 5-10% share of CIG in exchange for becoming the company's publisher in China. Instead, Keith Calder paid $5 million to increase his holding in CIG up to 22.4%.

Finally, I did get the closing of the Los Angeles area studio correct. Not much of a prediction, honestly, but CIG did try to hide the complete shutdown of the office so it counts.

Looking into the future I will make a prediction that will affect the rest of my predictions about CIG: Squadron 42 will launch in the fourth quarter of 2026. Given that, cash shop sales will increase 10% in 2026 up to $170 million. The figure will reach much higher if Squadron 42 sales are included in the cash shop counter.

As for new account creation, I am going to fudge the prediction and just say CIG will set a new company record, exceeding 2022's amount of over 871,000 accounts. One million new accounts would not surprise me.

I am going to predict a minor story will emerge in 2026: publication costs. Between the new server meshing technology introduced in 2025 and a surge in interest in Star Citizen, I think the publication line item will hit $90-$100 million in 2026. I also think we will see the number fall within $50-$60 million in the 2024 financial report which CIG has not published as I compose this post.

Star Citizen - I only made one correct prediction for 2025 out of three attempts. I was correct when stating dynamic server meshing would not appear last year. But I was incorrect in my prediction that the alpha 3.24 branch of the game would stay on the production servers until Q2. Also, my prediction that Nyx would not appear in the game in 2025 was incorrect. Admittedly CIG rushed the system into the game without all its planets, but officially the system was launched in 2025.

For 2026 I predict more of the same. Dynamic server meshing will not appear. Nyx, the system I thought CIG would introduce in 2026, will cause some consternation among players. The system will not be considered finished by the end of the year. Perhaps most importantly the capacity of single shards will not exceed 1000 players. That prediction is not necessarily a negative prediction as currently shards are set to handle up to 600 players.

Squadron 42 - I only made one prediction about SQ42 for 2025: Chris Roberts would announce Tencent as the publisher for the game at CitizenCon. Of course I was wrong. For 2026 I will make two predictions. First, the game will launch globally in Q4 2026. Secondly, globally does not mean in the Peoples Republic of China. SQ42 will not launch on the mainland in 2026. Look for Tencent to act as the publisher sometime in 2027.

I should predict the number of units sold in 2026. I believe CIG will announce between 2.5 and 3 million units sold. An impressive figure until one realized that half the figure will have been presales from before 2023 when Squadron 42 sales were disabled on the RSI website.

And finally, Final Fantasy XIV.

As much as I play Final Fantasy XIV I don't really dig into the game as much as I ever did EVE Online. Last year I predicted we would find out at Fanfest in November that Yoshi-P would announce players would return to the Eastern lands to visit the frigid waters of The Blindfrost. Well, none of that happened, with the next Fanfest set for Anaheim in April.

Now for my predictions. The next expansion will take place in the South Sea islands, the original home of the Lalafell. Which means Krile will either serve as the expansion's star or be the ongoing thread holding the multi-expansion story arc together, much as Alphinaud did in the Hydaelyn–Zodiark Saga.

I asked last week which mainline Final Fantasy game I should play. If my prediction is correct, the 8.0 expansion will heavily reference Final Fantasy X, specifically Spira. I guess I know which Final Fantasy game I'm playing next.

I am also going to go out on a limb and say Final Fantasy XIV will not launch its next expansion in 2026. Looking at the historical timings I just can't see a launch happening in December. Expansion launches have always occurred at least 3 months after the Japanese Fanfest, and the next one is on Halloween and All Saints Day. That would lead to a launch of the next expansion no sooner than January or February 2027.

And so concludes another round of predictions. One of these days I'll get more than half the predictions right.

Pearl Abyss Q1 2025 Earnings Call

On Tuesday in South Korea, Pearl Abyss held its earnings call for the first quarter of 2025. The company experienced a quarter-over-quarter decrease in revenue of 20.4%, from ₩95.7 billion ($68.5 million) in Q4 2024 to ₩83.7.7 billion ($57.7 million) in the first quarter. Year-over-year the company's first quarter revenue decreased by 2%. 

For the third time out of the last four fiscal quarters Pearl Abyss ran at an operating loss. The ₩5.2 billion ($3.6 million) loss in the first quarter of the year puts the operating losses at ₩18 billion (-$12.9 million) over the last 12 months. Pearl Abyss did manage to pull off a net profit of ₩500 million ($300,000) in the first quarter.

In non-gaming revenue Pearl Abyss saw a drop of revenue from Pearl Abyss Capital of ₩4.4 billion ($3 million) due to lack of activity. The large net profit in Q4 2024 was a one-time event due to FX (foreign exchange) gains plus a revaulation of some of the company's assets. The drop in net profits in the first quarter were the numbers retreating back to the norm.

But the biggest decline in revenue was due to the ending of the Black Desert Mobile service in China. The contract with TenCent to operate Black Desert Mobile in China was supposed to run until 26 April but due to poor performance TenCent and Pearl Abyss ended service for the game on 27 January.

While the company removed platform data this quarter, the earnings call PowerPoint presentation still had revenue breakouts by region. While North American/EU (+2.2%) and Korea (+1.8%) experienced small gains, the rest of Asia region experienced a quarter-over-quarter decline of 32.8%, a drop of ₩8.9 billion ($6.9 million). Pearl Abyss no longer breaks down revenue by game franchise but one can assume most if not all the revenue decline is due to the ending of BDM service in China.

Finally on the subject of profits, the company's CFO did point towards CCP Games' development of two games, EVE Frontier and EVE Vanguard, as another reason for the quarter's operating loss.

The analysts on the call were told of various initiatives designed to increase revenue. Black Desert Console is expected to finish work on porting the game to the current generation of consoles (PS5 & XBox XIS) and release the updated game on 26 June.

For EVE, while the presentation did tout the upcoming Legion expansion, Pearl Abyss chose to make EVE Frontier a bigger focus than normal for a game from CCP. I think progress on a blockchain game is supposed to make investors forget some of the pain surrounding Crimson Desert.

According to the C-Suite members on the call, development of the long-delayed game is in the last stages of preparing to launch. These steps include final voiceover work and certification for consoles. Expect full scale marketing efforts to begin in June to include a new demo build to use at game shows.

Note: The conversion of the QoQ revenue loss in the rest of Asia has been corrected from $11.5 million to $6.9 million.

The Board Of Directors' View Of Pearl Abyss Iceland's 2024 Consolidated Financial Reports

On 7 May the financial accounts for all the companies making up CCP Games made their appearance on the website of Iceland's taxing authority. The company under which all others fall is Pearl Abyss Iceland ehf. Since Croda has already done a two-part analysis of the numbers I thought I'd look at the text of the endorsement of the board of directors for Pearl Abyss Iceland. Since the board is headed by a Pearl Abyss employee I thought I would use the endorsement section of the 2024 Consolidated Financial Reports to provide a 30,000 foot view of the numbers inside the document.

First off, what is Pearl Abyss Iceland ehf. In their own words:

Pearl Abyss Iceland ehf. is a holding company established in 2018. In October 2018 the Company bought all issued and  outstanding shares in CCP ehf. CCP ehf. designs, develops, markets and operates immersive virtual worlds and games  accessed over the internet. The Company is headquartered in Iceland and owns and operates subsidiaries in the United  Kingdom, China, and the United States.

I'll add in CCP Games description of itself from the CCP ehf 2024 financial statements.

CCP ehf. designs, develops, markets, and operates immersive virtual worlds and games accessible over the internet. Our mission is to create virtual worlds more meaningful than real life. Headquartered in Iceland, the Company operates subsidiaries in the United Kingdom, China, and the United States.

Yes, creating virtual worlds more meaningful than real life isn't just a slogan pulled out for press interviews and Fanfest.

The next paragraph covered the totals that get the most coverage in the press: revenue, profits/loss, and employee headcount.

In 2024, The Group generated revenues of USD 60.2 million, compared to USD 56.0 million in the previous year. Notably, game revenue increased by USD 4.5 million (8%) year-on-year, reflecting strong ongoing engagement across EVE Online and the launch of new titles including EVE Galaxy Conquest. However, the Company reports a net loss of USD 19.5 million, compared to a USD 18.8 million net loss in 2023. This result is primarily due to deliberate and increased investment in multiple active development projects — including EVE Frontier, EVE Vanguard, and the Carbon open-source platform — which are scheduled to enter key release phases from mid-2025 onwards. These investments, while impacting short-term profitability, are central to the Group’s strategy and position the Group for strategic and sustainable growth in the years ahead. As of year-end, shareholders’ equity stood at USD 89.2 million, with an equity ratio of 40.2%, and total assets of USD 221.6 million. The Group employed 412 people at year-end, compared to 381 at the beginning of the year.

The headline numbers are:

• Revenue up 8% ($4.5 million)
• Losses increased to $19.5 million from 2023's $18.8 million
• Headcount increased 8.1% (to 412)

The losses are racking up while CCP works to develop two major on-line games one of which is a first-person shooter while developing Carbon. Sounds a lot like 2011 except CCP has a larger financial cushion as Pearl Abyss provided PAI a $50 million loan in 2023. So, no danger of the company collapsing in 2025.

I won't follow the document in order. Instead, what was said about the two EVE Online expansions, Equinox and Revenant? First, the summer expansion.

The year saw a major expansion in the Group’s portfolio and platform capabilities. In June, Equinox launched for EVE Online, introducing expansive changes to nullsec sovereignty warfare. It added new Upwell structures, enabling capsuleers to efficiently harvest planetary resources and customize territories. New industrial hulls and enhanced defensive capabilities arrived alongside the SKINR personalization tool, empowering capsuleers to express themselves through ship design. These innovations sparked renewed engagement across the landscape of New Eden.

A little later on the winter expansion received a summary.

Meanwhile, Revenant, the second major EVE Online expansion of the year, launched in November. It introduced new SKINR upgrades, Corporation Projects enhancements, and powerful ships themed around the enigmatic Deathless — a faction that now plays a pivotal narrative role across CCP titles. In early 2025, Revenant received a significant post-launch content update, deepening both narrative and gameplay layers.

Notice the first item listed for the winter expansion was the new SKINNR upgrades? I had some thoughts about CCP introducing a feature that would increase demand for PLEX at a time with low supplies of the currency. The prominence of place in the report leads me to believe the SKINNR system is a top priority for the company.

After EVE Online came news of EVE Vanguard.

EVE Vanguard, the Group’s sandbox FPS module set within the EVE Universe, advanced rapidly throughout 2024. Player feedback during the limited-time Solstice event and public playtests helped shape the game’s direction, culminating in a detailed roadmap for the Solstice Era. The team emphasized direct collaboration with our Founders Access community as we build toward launching into Steam Early Access.

As we found out at Fanfest, Vanguard will reach Steam Early Access in July 2026. Expect more development work throughout 2025.

Next came a description of the latest game launched by CCP Games, EVE Galaxy Conquest.

In October, EVE Galaxy Conquest launched worldwide on iOS and Android. This mobile-first 4X strategy title, developed by the Group’s Shanghai studio, blends diplomacy, territory control, and epic-scale fleet battles to deliver the power and politics of New Eden to handheld devices. The game continues to evolve with post-launch content and live operations.

Speaking of mobile games, EVE Echoes is not mentioned in the board of directors summary. Perhaps the fact that NetEase only licenses the intellectual property from CCP doesn't make the game worth noting.

Then we get to EVE Frontier.

September saw the official reveal of EVE Frontier, the Group’s ambitious new hardcore survival MMO. With Founder Access underway and Early Access planned for June 2025, Frontier challenges players to survive and thrive in a fractured cosmos overrun by rogue AI. Featuring a single-shard server architecture, emergent construction via Smart Assemblies, and deep player-driven economy systems, EVE Frontier extends the spirit of EVE into a fresh new genre space.

While not showing up in the PAI financial reports, we have a pretty good idea of spending on Frontier's development by looking at CCP ehf's financial statements. Since 2022 Angelice Prime Foundation has paid CCP ehf a total of $39,980,542, including $10,187,021 in 2024, for "supply of services". 

This money does not show up on PAI's statement as Angelice Prime Foundation is listed as a related party. From one of the footnotes:

Because the Group has power to direct the relevant activities of Angelice Prime Foundation through contractual arrangements, the Group has control over Angelice Prime Foundation and its subsidiaries even though the Group doesn't have any ownership interest and voting rights in Angelice Prime Foundation.

Is this what is known as a creative accounting practice designed to lower tax liability or perhaps gain a tax credit? Because when taking the payments from Angelice Prime Foundation to CCP into account, PAI's loss drops from $19.5 million down to $9.3 million. And 2023's $18.8 million loss is reduced to $1.6 million. I am not an accountant so I'm not sure if I read everything correctly. Just one of the reasons I'm trying to stick to the text of the board of directors' statement.

Finally we get down to a specific technical project.

In March 2024, the Group announced its intention to open-source the Carbon Development Platform. This initiative provides developers with access to the Group’s proprietary game engine and tools, supporting a more open and collaborative ecosystem for game creation and experimentation.

Last but not least, we get down to dividend payments.

The Board of Directors does not propose dividend payments to shareholders in 2025. With regard to the allocation of loss and changes in the equity of the Group, the Board refers to the Notes attached to the Consolidated Financial Statements.

At the beginning of the year-end and at year end 2024 Pearl Abyss Corp. is the sole shareholder in the Company.

Not surprising that Pearl Abyss does not want to pay itself a dividend.

System Requirements For EVE Frontier And EVE Vanguard: Fanfest 2025 Edition

CCP Games, due to the nature of its games, has a smaller-than-normal potential player pool. The Icelandic game studio is very fond of full-loot PvP sandbox games. The company's flagship game, EVE Online, fits the description and a game under development, EVE Frontier, falls within the same genre. Which means the studio must reduce friction to player interest in other areas to build up a healthy player base for its games.

Heading into next week's EVE Fanfest CCP will showcase two games under development, EVE Frontier and a first person shooter, EVE Vanguard. I thought I'd post the known system requirements for the two games and compare them to the Steam Hardware & Software Survey for March 2025. Will the hardware requirements keep the number of potential players down?

First up is EVE Frontier. According to the FAQ, the minimum and recommended requirements are the same as EVE Online's. Makes sense since both use the Carbon engine.

Minimum Requirements:

• OS: MacOS or Windows 10 64-bit
• CPU: Dual Core @ 2.0 GHz
• RAM: 4 GB or higher
• Video: AMD Radeon 5450 or NVIDIA GeForce 420 or better with at least 1024 MB VRAM

Recommended Requirements

• OS: MacOS or Windows 10 64-bit
• CPU: Intel i7-7700 or AMD Ryzen 7 1700 @ 3.6 GHz or greater
• RAM: 16 GB or higher
• Video: NVIDIA Geforce GTX 1060, AMD Radeon RX 580 or better with at least 4 GB VRAM

As expected, the operating system is pretty universal amongst Steam users. Ninety-six percent of Steam users run either Windows 10 or 11 and another 1.5% run a Mac operating system. The CPU speed also should not pose an issue. For the minimum requirements, over 99% of Steam users have CPUs at least 2.0 GHz or faster. The recommended speed, though, is a little restrictive. While Steam doesn't use 3.6 GHz as a breakpoint, only 2.5% of Steam users own a CPU 3.7 GHz or faster.

The news is better on the number of physical cores. Basically only 0.03% of Steam users own a computer with only 1 processing core. For the recommended requirements, the listed cards have 6 cores. A total of 79% of Steam users own cards with 6 or more cores.

The amount of RAM required to run the two games is also a bonus. For the minimum required 4 GB of RAM, 99.97% of Steam users have the required memory installed. For the recommended amount, 85.5% of Steam users have 16 GB of RAM in their computers.

To give a hint as to whether the average Steam user has a video card capable of running EVE Frontier, the median user owns a NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3060. 94.9% of Steam users have the 1 GB of video RAM required to run the games at minimum level and 84.9% at the recommended level.

When we get to EVE Vanguard the hardware requirements are a little higher.

Minimum:

• Requires a 64-bit processor and operating system
• OS: Windows 10 64-bit (21H2/19044) / Windows 11 64-bit
• Processor: Intel i5-8400 / AMD Ryzen 5 1600X
• Memory: 16 GB RAM
• Graphics: NVIDIA RTX 2060 / AMD Radeon RX 5700 XT

Recommended:

• Requires a 64-bit processor and operating system
• OS: Windows 10 64-bit (Latest) / Windows 11 64-bit (Latest)
• Processor: Intel i5-11600K / AMD Ryzen 5 5600X
• Memory: 16 GB RAM
• Graphics: NVIDIA RTX 3080 / AMD Radeon RX 6900 XT

The processors listed on Steam are a little faster than those required for Online & Frontier but can use the older i5 processors instead of the newer i7 & i9 processors. Still the processor speeds appear to be a touch faster for the system minimum (2.8 GHz) and a little slower at the recommended level (3.6 GHz). Still, only about 32% of Steam users have the required hardware to run Vanguard at minimum specs while the recommended processors are the same as EVE Online's.

Another difference is the required amount of RAM for the minimum requirements. Don't try running Vanguard with anything less than 16 GB. While 84.9% of Steam users already have 16 GB of RAM installed a small proportion of EVE players trying to play Vanguard may wind up with an unpleasant surprise.

And finally, as one might expect from an FPS game, the video card required to play Vanguard is much more powerful. The AMD Radeon RX 6900 XT listed on Steam, for example, has 16 GB of VRAM while the NVIDIA RTX 3080 comes with 10 GM & 12 GB variants. Overall, probably only 30% of Steam users own the recommended hardware to run Vanguard but nearly 2/3 can run the game on the minimum specifications.

I didn't realize until writing this post about just how much more powerful a computer needs to be to run EVE, whether Frontier or Online, compared to a FPS game like Vanguard. How much does will that cut down on adoption of Vanguard by EVE players. After all, buying a Playstation 5 is only $500 or so. Purchasing a computer just to run Vanguard seems like a bigger ask.

My Predictions for 2025

Since I made some pretty bad predictions for 2024, I thought I should go back and look at how I did. Then, to prove my insanity, I'll make some predictions for the upcoming year of 2025. Maybe I'll do better?

EVE Online - At least I got my first prediction correct: a volcano did not destroy CCP's new offices in Reykjavik. But for those thinking the prediction was guaranteed, a volcano did destroy parts of the famous Blue Lagoon geothermal spa in November.

From here through, the predictions turned bad. Instead of continuing the improvement of low sec, CCP launched two expansions aimed at null security space, Equinox and Revenant.  Thus. the prediction of low sec witnessing more players killed than in null sec was a bust. Still, given all the complaining from null sec players, perhaps CCP would have received a better return on investment by continuing to focus on low sec.

I did use Project Awakening, now known as EVE Frontier, as a reason for ship development in EVE Online. I think I can safely say that did not happen. Instead we received four new industrial ships for EDENCON along with a destroyer and battlecruiser for Deathless Circle. 

Now for some predictions. First, CCP will realize the futility of creating null sec focused expansions and the spring will wind up as a hodge-podge of ideas again. Also, at the beginning of the expansion CCP will conduct another event with EVE Vanguard trying to incorporate itself with null sec play. The experiment will receive a horrible reaction from null sec players, ending the developers' efforts to improve null sec play. And with the realization, much rejoicing will come from player-owned null.

In the winter expansion, the developers will turn their attentions once again to The Deathless. The new pirate faction will receive three new ship types: frigate, cruiser, and logisticis cruiser. That's right, I see the Deathless Circle receiving the Triglavian treatment and getting Tech II ships in its ship tree. I think a Deathless Circle version of the Marshal is a bit much to expect in 2025.

EVE Vanguard - I'll admit I'm a bit confused about the development of CCP's latest attempt at a first person shooter. I'll count my prediction that EVE Vanguard did not go into a continuous alpha ala Star Citizen as true. I'll also count my prediction of the overlords in Anyang bringing up the game on an investor call as correct.

Vanguard will have a roller coaster year. On the plus side the game will enter beta sometime this year, probably during a favorable playtest in November or December. On the minus side, the complaints about CCP ruining null sec logistics for the inferior Equinox sov system (why couldn't they keep Fozzie Sov?!) will shut down development in that area for some time.

EVE Frontier (formerly Project Awakening) - The silence wasn't as deafening about EVE Frontier than I anticipated. I didn't expect any solid news about the title until November or December. Instead, CCP kicked off the announcement of the title's name in September and Closed Alpha in December.

As I am part of the Closed Alpha, I am under an NDA so cannot really make any game-related predictions. I feel confident enough though to predict another round of venture capital funding for the game. And since CCP has openly discussed the future of the Carbon game engine, I'll go ahead and predict the company will announce how Frontier tech has wound up in Online. Not a far-out prediction given both games use the same engine. Oh, and going open source doesn't count.

EVE: Galaxy Conquest - I thought the game would not release in 2024 due to actions of the Chinese government. I'll give myself a little credit for backing away from a no release in 2024 to a world-wide release outside China in Q4. The game was released on 29 October, so I got that part kind of correct. I couldn't tell if the game released in China yet.

Crowd Control Productions - I'm pretty sure some people in Reykjavik are waiting for this section, since I was wrong. Not about the game development part. I predicted CCP would have a good year developing games in 2024 and I count that prediction as true. Where I failed is revenue. I predicted a so-so year of revenue remaining between plus or minus 2-3% of 2023's. Instead. through the first three quarters of 2024 revenue was up year-over-year by 8.8%. I consider that a miss.

I still believe 2025 is the year CCP will fully see the fruits of their hard work in 2024. First, the big prediction. The games in the EVE franchise will meet the goal set by the overlords in Anyang of ₩20 billion each quarter in 2025. For the year, I expect 10% revenue growth, up to ₩90 billion, or $64 million. Due to currency fluctuations, the two figures may not match.

Black Desert Online - I made a prediction and just based on Pearl Abyss' investor calls, I'll go out on a limb and say I was correct about this year's expansion, Land of the Morning Light: Seoul not doing as well as 2023's Land of the Morning Light. I'm not even sure what was released this year counts as a real expansion or just a continuation of the effort in 2023.

The only prediction I'll make about BDO is the game makes a lot of "sickest MMORPG" lists in the gaming media as I expect another 10% decline in revenue from all platforms in 2025, down to around ₩215 billion.

Crimson Desert - A stopped clock is correct twice a day, which is how I feel about my predictions for Crimson Desert. Last year I predicted that while the game would not release in 2024, Pearl Abyss would make an announcement of a release occurring sometime during the first half of 2025. I also expected the ability to pre-order the game sometime at the end of 2024. That didn't happen either.

The game appears close to release, but after so many false starts, I'll repeat last year's prediction and just change the years. Watch for Pearl Abyss to announce a release date of the first half of 2026 sometime in November. Also, I see pre-orders for the game going on sale in either November or December of 2025.

Pearl Abyss - Thankfully I was too pessimistic about Pearl Abyss last year. The predicted 10% revenue decline was only 1% through the first three quarters of 2024. The predicted 12-15% decline in Black Desert revenue wound up at only a 6% decline. But all wasn't good news. Operating losses year-over-year increased from ₩10.9 billion to ₩14.4 billion over the first 3 quarters of 2024, partially justifying my concerns over the financial state of the South Korean video game maker.

Despite the performance of CCP Games, I don't see a good year ahead for Pearl Abyss. Beginning operations in the People's Republic of China this year will help, but I still see Black Desert revenue falling 5% due to the continuing decline of Black Desert Mobile. I'll go out on a limb and say Pearl Abyss will turn both net and operating profits in 2025.

Star Citizen - I think I was mostly correct about all the goodwill from CitizenCon dissipating by the middle of the year. Where I was wrong, however, was about server meshing. Right before the developers left for their Christmas break, they released a version of Alpha 4.0 on live "preview" servers. From watching Star Citizen content creators, the version is actually Alpha 4.0 Lite. But officially I need to call the prediction wrong, even if some creative use of language was utilized.

I think I can make a couple of predictions. First, the 3.24 version of the game still on live servers will not be taken down until sometime in the summer (June, July, August). I even expect the 3.24 version to receive a patch or 2, if only for ship sales. Next, dynamic server meshing will not appear anytime in 2025. And finally, the third planet due up for deployment, Nyx, will also not see the live servers in 2025.

Squadron 42 - Last year I fell for Chris Roberts' hyping up of Squadron 42 as "feature complete" at CitizenCon 2023. So I was wrong about predicting a 2025 launch with a corresponding influx of revenue from pre-orders in 2024. Instead of announcing a 2025 date for the release of SQ42 at CitizenCon, Roberts announced sometime in 2026. At least I got the CitizenCon announcement of a date correct, right?

With a release date sometime in 2026, I don't have anything to predict for 2025, right? Wrong. Cloud Imperium still needs to find a Chinese publisher if the company wants to sell the game in the People's Republic. So at CitizenCon, I predict Roberts will announce the Chinese publisher. I think the choice is obvious: TenCent.

Cloud Imperium Games - Last year I made three predictions about the company, all of which were incorrect. The first was that cash shop revenue, the number displayed on the funding page, would hit $123.5 million for the year. Currently an outside chance exists sales will equal 2023's $117.6 million although the likelihood is the company will fall $1 million short. While a less than 1% shortfall isn't bad, I predicted a 5% increase.

The second prediction was that CIG would surpass Pearl Abyss in the size of each company's workforce. At the time I made the prediction, CIG had over 1100 employees and Pearl Abyss was down under 1300. Since then, CIG engaged in a workforce reduction of 100-150 employees and Pearl Abyss added about 50.

Finally, I predicted CIG would receive another round of funding. As far as we currently know, no such funding round occurred. Which probably explains why we are hearing rumors of additional layoffs among the QA staff in Manchester.

I'll try to make three predictions for CIG in 2025.

1. Cash shop revenue will drop to $113 million. Despite my belief the two big ship sales, Invictus and IAE, will combine for $46.8 million in 2023, I still think reduced sales the rest of the year will result in a 3.5% year-over-year drop.

2. The amount of new accounts created will drop 15% compared to 2024. The last two years have really seen a huge drop-off in the number of new accounts created to play Star Citizen. With no Squadron 42 to attract fans until 2026, I think the decline continues but slows, with 408,000 new accounts created to play Star Citizen.

3. Cloud Imperium will close down its Los Angeles office. Roberts announced that game development had left the location in 2024 due to a restructuring. I know that Roberts affinity for the film industry makes the idea of CIG leaving Los Angeles hard to believe, but the high cost of doing business in California may lead to the change. Plus, Henry Cavill lives in London, so filming in the UK would be easier for him.

4. Tencent will get a 5-10% stake in Cloud Imperium. I'm waiting on CIG's 2023 financial report so I don't have a real good idea on CIG's spending over the past two years. I am guessing that CIG can't attract venture capital funding so the next best thing is getting money from a big publisher. Tencent fits the bill. Did I mention Tencent also likes picking up little stakes in lots of companies it thinks will do well?

Final Fantasy XIV - And last but not least is Final Fantasy XIV. I got a lot of predictions right last year. The game earned a lot of credit for handling launch traffic well along with the graphics upgrade. And there is also a lot of doom and gloom about the franchise with at least content creators complaining about how bad the Dawntrail expansion was and is.

I was wrong about World of Warcraft impacting Dawntrail's launch as The War Within didn't launch until 26 August, or almost 2 months after the launch of the Dawntrail early launch on 28 June. I was also wrong about both new housing and the cosmic exploration content as neither reached the live servers during 2024. In fact, Dawntrail probably will not new a new housing zone until patch 8.1 in 2026 with players having to settle for the expanded interiors coming to housing in 2025.

So what do I think is in-store for FFXIV in 2025? First, with the next expansion due to release sometime in the summer of 2026 I expect the first fanfest to occur in November, right before the release of patch 7.4. Either at Fanfest or as part of the MSQ in patch 7.4, players will discover the next expansion will have players continue to search for treasure in the frozen waters of Blindfrost, which is north of the continent of Othard. Yes, I think we're returning to the east to visit Doma once again.

Finally I will repeat one of last year's predictions hoping I was just a year early. When cosmic exploration finally comes out I expect the feature to resemble housing more than island sanctuary did. I do think we will also see a restoration project in Garlemald at least teased sometime during the year if not in patch 7.4.

EVE Online: Revenant Thanksgiving Patch - Trustbreaker Arrays

Tomorrow is the CCP Games' first effort to link gameplay in EVE Online and its new first person shooter under development, EVE Vanguard. From 28 November to 1 December a testing event for the FPS game will go on requiring some sort of involvement from players in EVE Online. Between the dev blog and patch notes, here's the information provided by CCP.

First from the dev blog.

In connection with the Vanguard deployment starting on 28 November, the Deathless Circle has deployed Trustbreaker Arrays, which connect to the enigmatic Warden structure in Zarzakh. These arrays scan for crucial passkeys required to breach planetary defenses, enabling Vanguard forces to claim planetary strongholds. However, the arrays are now under siege by Drifter forces, and the Deathless has issued a call to capsuleers to intervene. 

From 26 November to 2 December, pilots can defend the arrays to earn ISK rewards, or destroy them to seize passkeys as valuable commodities. These skirmishes offer a high-stakes choice: stand with the Deathless or shut their operations down. 

The patch notes provided important information. Things like ship restrictions, recommended group sizes, and where to find the Trustbreaker Arrays. You know, the important stuff.

The Deathless Circle has deployed Planetary Trustbreaker Arrays to steal passkeys for planetary defense networks ahead of Vanguard assaults. These sites have fallen under attack by Drifter forces!

• Deathless Trustbreaker Under Attack sites are appearing in pirate Insurgency FOB systems.
  
  
• Capsuleer fleets can choose to protect the Trustbreaker Array for the duration to receive a reward from the Deathless. 5 capsuleers are recommended for this challenge.
  
  
• Alternatively, those who do not wish to support the Deathless can wait for the structure to generate PDN passkeys before destroying it. Many groups would pay handsomely for any such commodities seized from the wreckage!
  
  
• Regardless of their motivations, capsuleers are limited to bringing standard T1 cruisers or below within the site.

To participate in the testing, players in EVE Online should find an insurgency between 28 November and 1 December and take a side. Oh, did I mention rewards? No cookies, but everyone likes skill points, right?

The battle intensifies on 28 November, as war descends to the surface in EVE Vanguard. Insurgency deployments unleash warclones on planets to directly impact the ongoing war in space. In addition, capsuleers get daily rewards for taking flight in EVE Online between 28 November and 1 December: Vanguard-themed SKIN design components, 3,000 EverMarks, and 50,000 Skill Points. Choose your allegiance, shape planetary battlefields, and leave your mark on the EVE Online universe from the ground as well as amongst the stars. Learn more about EVE Vanguard and add the game to your Steam wishlist so you don’t miss a moment of action. 

EVE Vanguard x EVE Online - Groundbreak Runs From November 26 To December 9

I intended to make a prediction that EVE Vanguard, CCP Games' under development MMOFPS game, would run an event interacting with EVE Online sometime in 2025. A prediction I can no longer make since such an event is running at the end of November and extending into December. The Pearl Abyss-owned studio made the announcement on its corporate website yesterday.

REYKJAVÍK, Iceland – November 19, 2024 - Today, CCP Games announced a public limited-time access event for EVE Vanguard, the in-development MMOFPS that directly connects to the legendary EVE Online Universe. From November 28 to December 9, players can descend onto diverse planetary battlegrounds as technologically immortal warclones, engaging in intense ground combat that directly impacts the largest player-driven war in gaming history. To obtain an access code visit the EVE Vanguard Discord server.

In YC126.11.28: Groundbreak, players will join live insurgencies that reach from ground to orbit, shaping the future of New Eden. With every deployment, you have the chance to align with a faction of your choice and dive into intense 9v9 battles, capturing artillery cannons to bombard enemy fleets from the surface. Each victory strengthens your side's grip on planetary zones in EVE Online, driving opposition forces out of contested airspace and having real-time impact on the ongoing war in the cluster.

In a dev blog yesterday, the developers gave the lore explanation for the influx of all the players/testers from Vanguard. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the link between the two games is the relatively new insurgency system.

CAPSULEER REINFORCEMENTS

The Deathless is making his presence known all over New Eden – on planets and in space. He has put out a call to the capsuleers of the cluster to join in the fight against Drifter forces, in part to aid Vanguard forces in planetside operations. The Deathless Circle has deployed special towers connected to the newly revealed Warden, which scan local networks for passkeys needed to break planetary defense systems, allowing Vanguard warclones to fight for key positions in insurgencies. These towers are under attack from Drifters, and the Deathless has asked capsuleers to help defend them. There is of course nothing stopping them from destroying the towers and stealing the passkeys for themselves, should they prefer to support suppression-aligned forces. 

In a positive move, players are not confined to insurgencies and the ties to EVE Online players. The devs will take advantage of Vanguard's persistent state and run content between major conflicts.

Between insurgency deployments you can hone your power by raiding planetary zones for rare resources and blueprint parts. Face off against brutal NPC militia and rival warclones, scavenging for materials to craft tactical chipsets and blueprints. Use them to build your own custom arsenal and gain an edge for the next objective. You have the freedom to formulate your own goals, strategies, and fragile alliances, with myriad methods of achieving what you set out to accomplish. Decide where you wish to deploy, manufacture an unbeatable armory, and destroy your rivals. 

In addition to participating in the event itself, CCP is running a rewards promotion for EVE Online players from 28 November to 1 December, or Thanksgiving weekend in the United States. The rewards are up to four SKIN design components, 3,000 EverMarks, and 50,000 Skill Points for participating all four days.

I do want to an additional point not really in the press release or the dev blog. To all the bloggers and content creators creating their end of the year predictions, EVE Vanguard is scheduled to launch on Steam Early Access in 2025. Adjust your predictions accordingly.

EVE: Vanguard News - The July 2024 Press Release

Last Friday CCP Games published a press release on its website unveiling a roadmap for its upcoming first person shooter, EVE: Vanguard. In the interest of full disclosure, I don't play first person shooters. If I didn't cover Pearl Abyss' finances, I'd wonder why the company insisted on trying to make me care about a game I have no interest in playing for the last six months. But since the company wants me to care so much, I'll cover the latest news.

The new roadmap does offer up some useful information. CCP plans to continue testing and refining the new Solstice map introduced in June. The private monthly playtest periods presumably will continue until November when the developers plan to unveil a new update. Based on the past, I would guess an additional map since I think CCP would not want to open up early access on Steam without at least three maps.

As I am not that excited about CCP's fourth attempt at producing a first-person shooter set in the EVE universe, I'll turn to the press release for some hype.

The 'Solstice' era roadmap showcases how EVE Vanguard's evolution will continue, including expanded gameplay elements, enhanced player agency, and deeper integration with the EVE Online universe. Private Founders' Playtests, part of the game's gated pre-alpha development phase, will be conducted through to the end of the year.

A major update is planned for November 2024, which will introduce new features such as stronger economic links to EVE Online, a strategic deployment map featuring diverse planetary environments, engagement with multiple factions, weapon chipset crafting, and more emergent activities.

Further out, plans are in place to launch EVE Vanguard into Steam Early Access, with the exact timing to be announced at a later date. In the interim, interested players can add EVE Vanguard to their wishlist on Steam.

These additions and future plans aim to create a more immersive and interconnected experience between EVE Vanguard and the broader EVE Universe, furthering the game's evolution and accessibility.

Looking at the timeline I do wonder a bit about the presence of EVE London on the roadmap. The Vanguard development team is in London, so their presence at the event would be natural. I just don't know if Vanguard information will be presented at the event.

Finally, CCP produced a short 5 minute video covering the future development of EVE: Vanguard. The video is described as "detailing the development team's vision for EVE Vanguard in the ‘Solstice’ era and beyond, including plans to deepen the gameplay loop with more content that strengthens the connection between EVE Online and EVE Vanguard."

Overall, the press release didn't provide that much new information. I still assume a major announcement about Vanguard will occur at Fanfest 2025 in May 2025. I think the press release did reveal CCP's plans to announce the early access release on Steam in 10 months. The question is whether the company will announce an immediate release or one in conjunction with the release of the Summer 2025 expansion, presumably in June 2025. My guess is the latter based on the integration discussed in the various materials mentioned in the press release. But until CCP puts up a compelling case why I should care, I'll only follow the game's development for blog content.

EVE: Vanguard Patch Notes For The March Playtest

The fourth playtest session for EVE: Vanguard, CCP Games' new first-person-shooter module for EVE Online currently under development is scheduled to run from tomorrow, 21 March at 1200 UTC, to Monday, 25 March at 1200 UTC. Open to all players with EVE Online Omega accounts, CCP published an article describing the additions and changes for the March playtest weekend. 

I read through the article and translated the contents into a patch note format. The highlights from outside looking in are the inclusion of mining and suppression contracts. Mining because the function will nicely fit into Project Awakening, a survival game that will likely incorporate much of EVE: Vanguard into the world. The inclusion of suppression contracts allows players to fight either for the empires (Amar, Caldari, Gallente, Minmatar) or the pirates of the Deathless Circles. These fights have the potential to affect EVE Online directly.

Below is my writeup of the points of the article.

Armor

These updates aim to deepen tactical gameplay and visually distinguish Vanguard from NPCs on the battlefield. 

• A new warclone suit for players now available
• A new and updated suit for NPCs

Contracts

Warclones now have a choice between sides in the ongoing struggle between order and disorder in New Eden. All corruption contracts have received suppression versions, leveling the playing field between the two sides.

• Mining contracts introduced
• Suppression contracts introduced
• Combat and rewards have received balancing improvements. 

Crafting

• Minable resources added to crafting recipes
• Energy ammo now craftable using mined resources

Mining

• New Mining Laser Prototype
• Allows mining of ore
• Passively scans for ore when equipped

NPC Loot

• NPCs now drop ammunition as well as biomass
  
  
• Higher ranking NPCs drop more kinetic ammo than their lowlier counterparts
• Elite NPCs drop energy ammo

Playtest Rewards

• Receive the Corax Arkombine Arisen SKIN for exchanging biomass for a clone 20 times as part of a squad of two or more.
• Receive the Osprey Navy Issue Arkombine Arisen SKIN for harvesting 2,000 units of ore from mining.
• Acquiring 20 clones as part of a squad counts toward a longer-term challenge in June.
• To unlock the big reward, players need to complete at least 4 of 6 monthly challenges.
  
  
• The top 10 on the leaderboard for most credits extracted during the event will receive PLEX.

Fixes

• Multiple server performance improvements have been made, including fixes to server and client crashes. 
• An issue with deployable shields being active longer than they should has been fixed. 
• An issue has been fixed, which allowed players to perform multiple actions simultaneously, that should have been mutually exclusive, such as healing and gathering resources. 
• Push-to-talk has received multiple improvements, including fixes to key binding and operational errors. 
• An issue with death box animations has been fixed. 
• An issue allowing players to simultaneously sprint, and place equipment has been fixed. 
• An issue allowing players to interact with out-of-range objects has been fixed. 
• An issue with the deployment summary screen displaying incorrect information has been resolved. 
• Display errors with contract objectives have been addressed. 
• An issue with NPCs moving at great speed or appearing to teleport across the map has been addressed. 

EVE: Vanguard - January 2024 Playtest Patch Notes

The January playtest for EVE: Vanguard is now live. Running from 12:00 UTC 25 January to 12:00 UTC 29 January, the second public playtest for Omega (i.e. subscription-paying) players is another step toward introducing first person shooter play into the EVE universe. While CCP did post an article covering progress so far, I thought a more patch notes type write-up for returning players could be useful. So here is my effort to write some patch notes.

Server Access

• Access to the Vanguard test servers has been opened to players from  the Asia Pacific and South American regions.

Rewards

• Players completing at least one deployment as part of a squad of 2 or more over the course of the event will get an Executioner Arkombine Arisen SKIN
• This EVE ship SKIN is exclusive and non-tradeable, and the reward is only available if the deployment is played all the way through without quitting
• Successful extraction is not required to meet the qualifications.
  
  
• Delivering the killing blow to 50 threats, including NPCs, other Vanguards, and turrets over the course of the event will reward you with the exclusive but tradeable Dragoon Arkombine Arisen SKIN in EVE Online. 
  
  
• The top 10 players on the leaderboard will receive a PLEX reward
• 
• The results will be tallied up when the playtest officially ends at 12:00 UTC on 29 January.
  
  
• Completing at least one deployment as part of a squad of 2 or more will make you eligible for an additional reward down the road. More will be revealed in further playtests and beyond. 

Uninstalling Vanguard

Following the December playtest, participants ran into challenges with uninstalling Vanguard from their devices. We understand the frustration this has caused and have been working towards a solution. Unfortunately, we do not have an uninstaller for Vanguard at this time. However, you can reference this help center article which outlines a method for removing Vanguard-related files from your PC without affecting your EVE Online installation. We appreciate your patience as we work to resolve this and plan to have a solution in place for the March event.

Fixes

• An exploit allowing players to avoid melee cooldowns by switching ammo has been fixed. 
  
• An exploit related to fire rate being connected to mouse clicks, allowing very rapid firing with no cooldowns, has been addressed. 
• A UI change has been implemented, fixing an issue that prevented players from looting if their inventory was full. 
• Clones appearing to be walking around after being shot dead have been addressed. 
• A problem that caused issues with reporting players after they had left their squads has been fixed. 
• Collisions and assets have been adjusted to address an issue with multiple players falling through the floor. 
• An issue causing squad mates’ ping markers to get stuck on screen after re-cloning has been addressed.  
• An error causing the contract UI to stay on screen when extracting and redeploying into the same session has been fixed.  
• A fix was made to prevent AR map icons from disappearing when switching window across monitors.  
• An issue with changing input and output audio devices has been addressed.  
• An issue that caused ammo to be duplicated when shooting and changing ammo type has been fixed.  
• Streaming stats have been fixed to prevent flickering.  
• A fix has been implemented to prevent the use of macros to increase fire rate. 
• An issue preventing users from quickly looting energy cells has been addressed.  
• Numerous crash fixes have been implemented.  
• A new informational splash screen has been added.  
• Numerous installation fixes have been made around EAD and Unreal prerequisites.