Predictions For 2015

The end of the year is upon us.  Time to once again fulfill the requirement to look back at the year past and fearlessly gaze into the future.  That's right, time to see just how badly I did on my predictions for 2014 and make a fool of myself looking ahead to 2015.

First, how did I do in 2014?

The Subscription Model Is Not Dead Yet - I predicted that both Wildstar and Elder Scrolls Online would remain subscription games until the end of 2014.  I was correct on both points.  I didn't make the prediction that ESO would make an announcement would go free-to-play in the first half of 2015, which proved that discretion is the better part of valor.  I'll come back to this in my predictions for 2015.

PLEX-Type Systems Mixed Reception - With as much as I write about RMT, my predictions were spot on, right?  Yeah, right.  All my predictions were wrong.  I predicted that Jagex would announce that bonds would not have the desired effect on RMT within Runescape in 2014.  Wrong!  And that's a good thing.

What about Wildstar's C.R.E.D.D.?  I predicted that Carbine would trumpet some success concerning their PLEX-like object.  That didn't happen, at least to my knowledge.  I also predicted that a MMO in development would would announce it was developing their own version of a subscription plus PLEX model in the last quarter of 2014.  I was close, but World of Warcraft doesn't count.

Finally, what about my prediction for EVE of a final PLEX price of 660 million ISK?  Ha!  On Saturday, the average price sold in Jita was 782 million ISK.  Unless the prices drops through the floor, I'll count that prediction as a fail.

World of Warcraft Does Well, But... - Okay, I got most of my WoW predictions wrong.  I predicted that WoW would get back up to the 9 to 10 million subscription mark based on 2.4 million copies of Warlords of Draenor sold in the first week of release.  Instead, players flocked back to Azeroth and the expansion sold 3.3 million copies the first day and the number of subscriptions exceeded 10 million for the first time in three years.

I did, however, get the major hacking attack in 2014 prediction correct.  I'm not even referring to the major DDoS attack that occurred at the launch of Warlords of Draenor.  A trojan was released at the beginning of January that allowed hackers to bypass the WoW authenticator.  But as far as I know, Blizzard did pretty well the rest of the year, aside from the DDoS attacks that plagued the entire MMORPG industry.

Guild Wars 2 Expansion - I got my prediction correct about ArenaNet not publishing an expansion in 2014.  However, I failed on the announcement for an expansion for 2015.

CCP - Unfortunately, reality was worse for the Icelandic game company than I predicted, and I did not predict a good year.  While CCP is a private company and no longer releases subscription numbers, I am going to consider my prediction of a subscription loss in EVE Online in 2014 as coming true.  I also predicted that CCP would not release a "Jesus feature" in 2014, and I do not consider Thera to qualify as such.

I predicted that DUST 514 would not close in 2014, and at Fanfest that appeared seriously in doubt.  I was correct again with the prediction that DUST would not break the 7,000 PCU mark, and the game never came close.  I also predicted that CCP would not announce that they planned to migrate the game to the PS4.  Correct again.  I also predicted layoffs in the Shanghai office.  Unfortunately, I got that prediction correct, although just about every CCP office outside Newcastle suffered layoffs in 2014.

Finally, my predictions about Valkyrie didn't come true, but not because of CCP.  The Oculus Rift was not released to the general public in 2014.  I still think that CCP will have Valkyrie ready for release when Oculus Rift is ready for release.

Star Citizen - I made three predictions about Star Citizen in 2014, all of which turned out wrong.  The first was that Star Citizen would reach the $65 million mark in funds raised from players.  That amount was surpassed, with the total as of Sunday at $68.3 million.  No major RMT scandal interrupted the cash flow, although stories about Star Citizen's grey market did emerge throughout the year.  I also predicted that CIG would announce a release date for the full game for the second half of 2015.  Instead, 2016 was announced.

Biggest Surprise - My final prediction concerned Landmark.  I really thought the game would emerge as the surprise hit of 2014.  Although the game, from what I saw from tweeted screenshots from the devs, is beautiful and players in the beta can produce amazing things, the game never took off with the general public.  Then again, I expected the game to launch in 2014.  Instead, the last patch of the year introduced PvE, turning the game from a strictly building game like Minecraft into a more MMORPG sandbox builder.  Perhaps in 2015 Landmark will get some well deserved recognition.

I counted 22 predictions in the above, and I only got ten correct.  Nostradamus I am not.  But that won't stop me from making some predictions for 2015.  Here goes.

World of Warcraft RMT - One of the biggest stories of 2015 is whether Blizzard carries through with plans to introduce a PLEX-type instrument to the game.  I predict that WoW will see PLEX introduced in either Q2 or Q3, and that the price of illicit WoW gold will decline by 25% by the end of the year.  As a way to measure the progress, I will track gold prices for the Horde on the Earthen Ring realm.  For those unfamiliar with gaming podcasts, that is the home of the Alea Iacta Est guild associated with The Instance podcast.  If AIE sounds familar, their EVE offshoot, AIEU, is a member of the Brave Collective.

Currently, the low price for 30 thousand gold pieces on Earthen Ring found on Player Auctions is $17.38, with the median price offered at $21.71.  I'm predicting that will decrease to $13.04 and $16.28 respectively.

Guild Wars 2 Expansion Plans - One would think that after three years, Guild Wars 2 deserves an expansion.  However, don't expect one in 2015.  However, I don't see how ArenaNet avoids announcing an expansion for the first half of 2016 sometime during the upcoming year.

Elder Scrolls Online Goes B2P - I am predicting that Zenimax will announce that ESO will go buy-to-play in 2015.  With the game launching on consoles sometime during 2015, I think that Zenimax will want to have the same pricing structure for both PC and console gamers.  I don't think that console gamers will accept the subscription model, so I think the PC game will change.  I'd suspect the change will occur during Q2.

Wildstar Remains A Subscription Game - Perhaps the craziest prediction in this post, but I don't see Wildstar going either free-to-play or buy-to-play in 2015.  That would require NCSoft to cough up money for the conversion to begin.  While the Aion conversion to F2P went well, NCSoft is the company that cancelled Tabula Rasa after 16 months.  Then again, I don't think Wildstar will close its doors due to the news that Giant Interactive plans to publish the game in China in late 2015 or early 2016.  I get the feeling that converting the game for the Chinese market will take precedence over doing a F2P conversion for the West.  The Western market will probably see the F2P conversion sometime in 2016, so an announcement to F2P is possible sometime in 2015.

CCP Stops The Bleeding - I won't predict that CCP will have a banner year, but after 2013-2014, next year will look rather good.  On the financial side, players will get their hands on CCP's 2014 financial report and discover that the company did better in the second half of the year than the first.  Then, our enterprising players will get their hands on the mid-year report and see that CCP made a profit for the first half of 2015.  I also predict that CCP will remain a privately-held company.  No IPO in 2015.

Next, EVE Online will basically finish 2015 with the same activity levels as 2014.  I predict that the average concurrent user mark for the week of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday in 2015 (23-29 November) will slightly exceed the ACU for this Thanksgiving week.  That number, as recorded on EVE-Offline.net, was 25,734.  I expect the number to fall between 26,000 and 27,000.

EVE may also receive a "Jesus feature" in 2015, depending on the definition of the term.  No, not player-built stargates.  Look for a shake-up of the incursion system, with Sansha's Nation either partially or totally replaced by Sleepers.

On the planetary side of New Eden, DUST will not sunset in 2015.  However, expect CCP to announce that Project Legion will launch a beta version with active DUST players receiving invites either in Q4 2015 or Q1 2016.

The only prediction I'll make on Valkyrie is that if Oculus Rift is ready for mass sales in 2015 that CCP will have a game to ship along with the VR headset.  Expect a Metacritic score of 85, plus or minus 3.

One last prediction for CCP.  No layoffs.

2015 Will Have Better New Games Than 2014 - At the beginning of 2014, 2015 looked like a quiet year for MMORPG releases.  Then ESO, Wildstar, and ArcheAge launched.  Now those small little games may outshine this year's big money AAA games.  Let me give five games that I believe may break out in 2015.  For prediction purposes, these games will all at least hit open beta, if not launch, in 2015.  Also for prediction purposes, these are all games that will get good reviews.

Landmark - My pick for surprise game of 2014, I really think once this SOE F2P game hits open beta that word of mouth will make the game fairly popular.  The game is currently available on Steam Early Access.

Shroud of the Avatar - Okay, I'm more of a science fiction guy, but I'm interested in this Richard Garriott effort.  But will the game reflect the Ultima Online Richard Garriott or the Tabula Rasa Richard Garriott?  I'm predicting the UO version.  While I probably won't have time to play, the game is available on Steam Early Access.

The Repopulation - Another science fiction sandbox game?  The game is available on Steam Early Access and I seriously considered purchasing the game the minute I laid eyes on it.  The game is just finishing alpha and I hope it officially launches in 2015, which makes that a prediction made with my heart, not my head.  I think that the game will fill a bit of a niche and receive some nice reviews.

Skyforge - After Wildstar, I'm not so sure about theme park sci-fi MMORPGs.  But I am going to keep my eye on this game.  I'll make the prediction the game gets a better Metacritic score than Wildstar.  The game currently is not on Steam.

H1Z1 - I'm not sure the zombie survival game qualifies as an MMORPG, but I'll predict that when the game finally emerges that critics will compare it favorably to DayZ.  While I don't play first person shooters, this is a game I'll follow with interest.  Also, I hear SOE plans to make the game available on Steam Early Access in January.

That's my list of predictions for 2015.  I'm sure someone will point out how crazy I am.  Then again, seeing how I did in 2014, my predictions are pretty much wild guesses.

First Steps Into Landmark

Over the weekend I dove a bit more into Sony Online Entertainment's new game, Landmark.  A very interesting game so far, even for someone who has less artistic ability than Rixx Javix does in his little finger.  So far, I've just equipped myself adequately to travel to a tier 2 map, but I'm getting ahead of myself.

The Schedule Is Almost Set For 2014

I don't just blog about EVE Online, but I usually confine that content to my Tuesday column.  But with the news coming out of Blizzard and leaking out of Carbine over the past few days, the release schedule for the major games published by MMORPG companies is almost final for 2014.

First up is Hearthstone.  While not an MMORPG, the game is published by Activision/Blizzard and based on Blizzard's Warcraft universe.  I think Blizzard surprised everyone by ending the beta and announcing the live release of the game yesterday.  I think Blizzard needs the game to do well to keep people's interest in Azeroth alive, considering some of the other news that came out over the past few days.

Next is EverQuest Next Landmark moving from closed alpha to closed beta no later than 31 March.  At that point players can join the unlimited closed beta for $19.95 USD.  I really think that the game can pick up some popularity even though SOE will promise bugs at first, as they plan on the closed beta serving as a true beta.  I'm following the game and I might even try the game out even though I'm pretty terrible at the artistic thing.

Zenimax Online plans on releasing Elder Scrolls Online a few days later on 4 April, although early access will also fall on 31 March.  Unlike Hearthstone and Landmark, Zenimax plans on charging a subscription as well as a box price.  With the Elder Scrolls IP, expect the game to make a big splash in the market, although some of those numbers on the PC are guaranteed to disappear as soon as the console version is released.

The next game scheduled to launch is Wildstar.  That in itself isn't too surprising.  What is surprising is that we may actually have a date.  Apparently Gamerzines released the information before the embargo was due to lift.  MMORPG reports that pre-orders go on sale on 19 March, with early access starting on 31 May and the actual launch on 3 June.  Carbine has leaked information like a sieve about Wildstar throughout the game's development, but at least they can't take the blame for this release.

I have to admit I'm intrigued by Wildstar.  The first time I saw a video of the game it reminded me of a Saturday morning cartoon.  I'm hoping Wildstar will combine that mix of entertaining for the kids while having witty, amusing content for adults like the cartoons had when I was growing up.  The fact that the game has a PLEX-like item in C.R.E.D.D. just adds to the attraction.

The end of the summer promises to release the blockbuster game of the year, Destiny.  Due out on 6 September, Bungie is marketing the game as an action, role-playing first-person shooter.  As not only a FPS but a console exclusive I don't plan on playing the game, but the game will probably have a huge impact (i.e. fewer players) on other games in the genre.

Finally, what about the other blockbuster due out in 2014, the Warlords of Draenor expansion for World of Warcraft?  Some WoW players started, to use the technical term, to freak out when word leaked out that the expansion was due out "on or before 12/20/2014".  That's a worst case as Blizzard plans a fall release and 20 December is the last day of autumn in the Northern Hemisphere.  If Blizzard times their launch compared to Destiny similarly to what they did compared to Guild Wars 2, I would expect WoD to launch in the first half of October.  I should add that seems optimistic, so flame away.  As Blizzard stated at BlizzCon that WoW would see no new PvE content like raids or dungeons after Patch 5.4, that is an awfully long time to go without new content in the game.  The Blizzard front office must really think a raise in the level cap to 100 and free level 90 characters will really serve as a strong incentive to come back to Azeroth.  In the meantime, expect WoW to hemorrhage accounts throughout the summer.

That's the schedule of major releases so far.  I don't know when Landmark will go into open beta/live launch or when Trion will release the highly anticipated Korean sandbox game ArcheAge to the English-speaking market.  That game may not even release in 2014.  A rather eventful year and hopefully one with a lot to write and podcast about.  I probably won't do that much of the writing, but I do enjoy watching the coverage put out by others.

Predictions For 2014

We are at the end of another year.  A time to look back and a time to look ahead.  When the subject is what I am doing in EVE Online my year doesn't coincide with the calendar.  But for everything else I pretty much stick to the calendar of this ball of dirt we call home.  Since this is the time for bloggers to make predictions about things that won't come true, I'll do my part and come up with some prognostications for the upcoming year.

The Subscription Model Is Not Dead Yet - I predict that both Wildstar and Elder Scrolls Online will remain subscription games throughout 2014.  However, the possibility exists that sometime in November or December that ESO could announce a change to a free-to-play model will occur sometime in the first half of 2015.  If I had the courage of my convictions I'd make it a prediction, but I'll chicken out this time.  Well, at least about the announcement.

PLEX-Type Systems Mixed Reception - I think that the news about companies attempting to duplicate CCP's success with PLEX will be mixed in 2014.  I expect Jagex to come out and state that, despite some over-hyped news in 2013, that bonds have not had the desired results and that new systems are needed to deal with Runescape's bot and illicit RMT problem.  On the other hand, after a rocky start, Carbine will announce some success with its C.R.E.D.D. system.  The financial figures will speak for themselves and another AAA MMO in development will announce going to a sub plus PLEX system sometime in the last quarter of 2014.

For EVE Online players, I'll predict that the Jita price for PLEX will make 1 billion ISK worth $26.50.  That is 660 million ISK for a PLEX using in-game currency.

World of Warcraft Does Well, But... - Yes, when making a post about predictions about MMORPGs I do have to include World of Warcraft.  I think that WoW will experience a year that all other game companies would envy.  I think that we will see the new Warlords of Draenor expansion sell 2.4 million copies in the first week and the number of subscribers hit between 9 and 10 million.  Of course, these numbers will have critics exclaiming that WoW is dying and on its last legs.

The expansion will foster controversy with the new offerings in WoW's cash shop.  I don't know what the nature of the controversy will involve, but I expect a backlash from some of the veteran players stating that WoW has gone pay-to-win.

Also, I do expect WoW to suffer another major hacking attack in 2014.  Of course, given WoW's history, the brave prediction is to predict such a security breach would not occur.

Guild Wars 2 Expansion - ArenaNet was pretty firm in 2013 about not needing an expansion for Guild Wars 2.  I think they will stay true to that and not publish an expansion in 2014.  However, I do expect ArenaNet to announce this summer an expansion in the first half of 2015 to coincide with the end of 2014's Living Story.

CCP - I expect that 2014 will prove a bad year for the Icelandic game company.  The number of subscriptions for its flagship game EVE Online will decline for the first time in the game's history (assuming that the number of accounts did not decline in 2013).  CCP will continue to resist pressure to release a "Jesus feature" in 2014, waiting until 2015. 

DUST 514 will continue to limp along throughout 2014.  However, the game will not break the 7,000 concurrent user mark unless CCP stages some sort of marketing event at one of the trade shows like E3.  With a less than expected rush to play, I expect no conversion announcement from the PS3 to the PS4 and layoffs in the Shanghai office at the end of 2014.

The one bright spot is EVE: Valkyrie.  CCP will have the game ready to ship at the time that the Oculus Rift is ready to ship to the public.  The game will receive high marks from players, but the good news is offset by the low penetration of the Oculus Rift into the gaming market.  Also, don't expect the Oculus Rift to release before the fourth quarter.

Star Citizen -  I'm not sure the game actually qualifies as an MMORPG, but I have three predictions.  The first is that the game will reach the $65 million mark in funds gathered in 2014  I would name a higher number but I also predict a major story about the RMT scene surrounding the game will make its rounds amongst the mainstream gaming press and that will depress the donation numbers.  Finally, I predict that during 2014 that Chris Roberts will announce a launch date in the second half of 2015.

Biggest Surprise - I think EverQuest Next Landmark will break out as the big surprise game of 2014.  I know that Landmark is developed by SOE, but given that no one even conceived of the possibility of the game until August 2013 I would rate a successful year a surprise.  Given the popularity of Minecraft, Landmark will emerge as the building game with the best graphics.  I think that could make Landmark a very popular game indeed.

I will make more predictions tomorrow as part of the final Digital Dozen roundup for 2013.  I should add that I hope I am wrong about the negative predictions I made in this post.  I just have the feeling that the gaming industry will not see calm seas in 2014.