EVE Online Activity In November 2024

Do the developers of EVE Online have the ability to make players in the game's null security regions happy? I've had my doubts for years. After all, the developers in charge have made some pretty bone-headed decisions like the Chaos and Scarcity Eras over the past five years. But with the launch of a second null-based expansion this year in November observers may begin to get enough data to tell.

Jester's Average Concurrent User chart

From just before the launch of Uprising in November 2022 to the end of the launch month of Havoc in November 2024, the average number of accounts logged into Tranquility rose from just under 16,000 to just under 24,000. After an initial bump after the launch of Revenant, the metric is falling back down to 24,000 accounts. The fall shows little to no growth at least in the number of accounts going back a year.

The monthly economic report for November came out yesterday and I eagerly searched for the Active ISK Delta. After October's MER I thought the chance existed for two months of positive Active ISK Deltas for the first time since January 2017. I was a bit disappointed.

Sinks and Faucets, November 2024 MER

Instead, the net effect of players leaving and returning to EVE Online withdrew 79.1 trillion ISK, or 3.2% of the game's money supply, from the economy. To give an example of how much ISK was withdrawn, players paid a total of 25.2 trillion ISK in transaction taxes.

The 7 Active ISK Deltas below -75 trillion ISK

Yes, the Active ISK Delta was among the top 5 largest amounts of ISK withdrawn from the game in a single month going back to January 2017. But are large drops just expected in the month of November?

Active ISK Deltas for the month of November

The average Active ISK Delta for the month of November from 2017 to 2023 was actually a positive number: 8.8 trillion ISK. The positive number was due to the effects surrounding two expansions, Uprising in 2022 and Havoc in 2023. Perhaps the most impressive fact about 2022 and 2023 is that the Active ISK Delta was positive in the month following the annual Crimson Harvest event. The low sec/factional warfare focused expansions managed to retain and grow the number of players while the null sec focused Revenant did not.

Data from Dotlan EVE Maps

Looking at month-over-month data from Dotlan, activity decreased in five of the six categories I track. For instance, player ship kills decreased MoM by 13.5%, and the drop occurred despite ship kills increasing by 13.4% in Uitra. Player ships exploded in low sec 3.3% less often while the number of NPCs killed by players dropped between 1.8% and 3.3% across the three security bands. That's right, in a month a null sec focused patch dropped, NPC kills in null dropped below 200 million.

Data from Dotlan EVE Maps

Even in the one category that increased, player ships lost in null sec, I have to wonder how much of the 10.3% increase was due to seasonal effects. In 2023, the same metric increased by 17.6% between October and November. Finally, year-over-year the number of player-owned ships exploding in null sec actually went down 0.8%.

I figure the next expansion will also have a heavy null sec focus. I think the numbers we've seen over the past five or six months indicate such a focus is warranted. But what if the developers literally do not have the ability to make null sec players happy? Of course, given the history of the game, if I see problems brewing, the folks in charge in Reykjavik probably think everything is going better than planned. Which means what the company touts at Fanfest in May should prove enlightening, if not entertaining.