Since I made some pretty bad predictions for 2024, I thought I should go back and look at how I did. Then, to prove my insanity, I'll make some predictions for the upcoming year of 2025. Maybe I'll do better?
EVE Online - At least I got my first prediction correct: a volcano did not destroy CCP's new offices in Reykjavik. But for those thinking the prediction was guaranteed, a volcano did destroy parts of the famous Blue Lagoon geothermal spa in November.
From here through, the predictions turned bad. Instead of continuing the improvement of low sec, CCP launched two expansions aimed at null security space, Equinox and Revenant. Thus. the prediction of low sec witnessing more players killed than in null sec was a bust. Still, given all the complaining from null sec players, perhaps CCP would have received a better return on investment by continuing to focus on low sec.
I did use Project Awakening, now known as EVE Frontier, as a reason for ship development in EVE Online. I think I can safely say that did not happen. Instead we received four new industrial ships for EDENCON along with a destroyer and battlecruiser for Deathless Circle.
Now for some predictions. First, CCP will realize the futility of creating null sec focused expansions and the spring will wind up as a hodge-podge of ideas again. Also, at the beginning of the expansion CCP will conduct another event with EVE Vanguard trying to incorporate itself with null sec play. The experiment will receive a horrible reaction from null sec players, ending the developers' efforts to improve null sec play. And with the realization, much rejoicing will come from player-owned null.
In the winter expansion, the developers will turn their attentions once again to The Deathless. The new pirate faction will receive three new ship types: frigate, cruiser, and logisticis cruiser. That's right, I see the Deathless Circle receiving the Triglavian treatment and getting Tech II ships in its ship tree. I think a Deathless Circle version of the Marshal is a bit much to expect in 2025.
EVE Vanguard - I'll admit I'm a bit confused about the development of CCP's latest attempt at a first person shooter. I'll count my prediction that EVE Vanguard did not go into a continuous alpha ala Star Citizen as true. I'll also count my prediction of the overlords in Anyang bringing up the game on an investor call as correct.
Vanguard will have a roller coaster year. On the plus side the game will enter beta sometime this year, probably during a favorable playtest in November or December. On the minus side, the complaints about CCP ruining null sec logistics for the inferior Equinox sov system (why couldn't they keep Fozzie Sov?!) will shut down development in that area for some time.
EVE Frontier (formerly Project Awakening) - The silence wasn't as deafening about EVE Frontier than I anticipated. I didn't expect any solid news about the title until November or December. Instead, CCP kicked off the announcement of the title's name in September and Closed Alpha in December.
As I am part of the Closed Alpha, I am under an NDA so cannot really make any game-related predictions. I feel confident enough though to predict another round of venture capital funding for the game. And since CCP has openly discussed the future of the Carbon game engine, I'll go ahead and predict the company will announce how Frontier tech has wound up in Online. Not a far-out prediction given both games use the same engine. Oh, and going open source doesn't count.
EVE: Galaxy Conquest - I thought the game would not release in 2024 due to actions of the Chinese government. I'll give myself a little credit for backing away from a no release in 2024 to a world-wide release outside China in Q4. The game was released on 29 October, so I got that part kind of correct. I couldn't tell if the game released in China yet.
Crowd Control Productions - I'm pretty sure some people in Reykjavik are waiting for this section, since I was wrong. Not about the game development part. I predicted CCP would have a good year developing games in 2024 and I count that prediction as true. Where I failed is revenue. I predicted a so-so year of revenue remaining between plus or minus 2-3% of 2023's. Instead. through the first three quarters of 2024 revenue was up year-over-year by 8.8%. I consider that a miss.
I still believe 2025 is the year CCP will fully see the fruits of their hard work in 2024. First, the big prediction. The games in the EVE franchise will meet the goal set by the overlords in Anyang of ₩20 billion each quarter in 2025. For the year, I expect 10% revenue growth, up to ₩90 billion, or $64 million. Due to currency fluctuations, the two figures may not match.
Black Desert Online - I made a prediction and just based on Pearl Abyss' investor calls, I'll go out on a limb and say I was correct about this year's expansion, Land of the Morning Light: Seoul not doing as well as 2023's Land of the Morning Light. I'm not even sure what was released this year counts as a real expansion or just a continuation of the effort in 2023.
The only prediction I'll make about BDO is the game makes a lot of "sickest MMORPG" lists in the gaming media as I expect another 10% decline in revenue from all platforms in 2025, down to around ₩215 billion.
Crimson Desert - A stopped clock is correct twice a day, which is how I feel about my predictions for Crimson Desert. Last year I predicted that while the game would not release in 2024, Pearl Abyss would make an announcement of a release occurring sometime during the first half of 2025. I also expected the ability to pre-order the game sometime at the end of 2024. That didn't happen either.
The game appears close to release, but after so many false starts, I'll repeat last year's prediction and just change the years. Watch for Pearl Abyss to announce a release date of the first half of 2026 sometime in November. Also, I see pre-orders for the game going on sale in either November or December of 2025.
Pearl Abyss - Thankfully I was too pessimistic about Pearl Abyss last year. The predicted 10% revenue decline was only 1% through the first three quarters of 2024. The predicted 12-15% decline in Black Desert revenue wound up at only a 6% decline. But all wasn't good news. Operating losses year-over-year increased from ₩10.9 billion to ₩14.4 billion over the first 3 quarters of 2024, partially justifying my concerns over the financial state of the South Korean video game maker.
Despite the performance of CCP Games, I don't see a good year ahead for Pearl Abyss. Beginning operations in the People's Republic of China this year will help, but I still see Black Desert revenue falling 5% due to the continuing decline of Black Desert Mobile. I'll go out on a limb and say Pearl Abyss will turn both net and operating profits in 2025.
Star Citizen - I think I was mostly correct about all the goodwill from CitizenCon dissipating by the middle of the year. Where I was wrong, however, was about server meshing. Right before the developers left for their Christmas break, they released a version of Alpha 4.0 on live "preview" servers. From watching Star Citizen content creators, the version is actually Alpha 4.0 Lite. But officially I need to call the prediction wrong, even if some creative use of language was utilized.
I think I can make a couple of predictions. First, the 3.24 version of the game still on live servers will not be taken down until sometime in the summer (June, July, August). I even expect the 3.24 version to receive a patch or 2, if only for ship sales. Next, dynamic server meshing will not appear anytime in 2025. And finally, the third planet due up for deployment, Nyx, will also not see the live servers in 2025.
Squadron 42 - Last year I fell for Chris Roberts' hyping up of Squadron 42 as "feature complete" at CitizenCon 2023. So I was wrong about predicting a 2025 launch with a corresponding influx of revenue from pre-orders in 2024. Instead of announcing a 2025 date for the release of SQ42 at CitizenCon, Roberts announced sometime in 2026. At least I got the CitizenCon announcement of a date correct, right?
With a release date sometime in 2026, I don't have anything to predict for 2025, right? Wrong. Cloud Imperium still needs to find a Chinese publisher if the company wants to sell the game in the People's Republic. So at CitizenCon, I predict Roberts will announce the Chinese publisher. I think the choice is obvious: TenCent.
Cloud Imperium Games - Last year I made three predictions about the company, all of which were incorrect. The first was that cash shop revenue, the number displayed on the funding page, would hit $123.5 million for the year. Currently an outside chance exists sales will equal 2023's $117.6 million although the likelihood is the company will fall $1 million short. While a less than 1% shortfall isn't bad, I predicted a 5% increase.
The second prediction was that CIG would surpass Pearl Abyss in the size of each company's workforce. At the time I made the prediction, CIG had over 1100 employees and Pearl Abyss was down under 1300. Since then, CIG engaged in a workforce reduction of 100-150 employees and Pearl Abyss added about 50.
Finally, I predicted CIG would receive another round of funding. As far as we currently know, no such funding round occurred. Which probably explains why we are hearing rumors of additional layoffs among the QA staff in Manchester.
I'll try to make three predictions for CIG in 2025.
1. Cash shop revenue will drop to $113 million. Despite my belief the two big ship sales, Invictus and IAE, will combine for $46.8 million in 2023, I still think reduced sales the rest of the year will result in a 3.5% year-over-year drop.
2. The amount of new accounts created will drop 15% compared to 2024. The last two years have really seen a huge drop-off in the number of new accounts created to play Star Citizen. With no Squadron 42 to attract fans until 2026, I think the decline continues but slows, with 408,000 new accounts created to play Star Citizen.
3. Cloud Imperium will close down its Los Angeles office. Roberts announced that game development had left the location in 2024 due to a restructuring. I know that Roberts affinity for the film industry makes the idea of CIG leaving Los Angeles hard to believe, but the high cost of doing business in California may lead to the change. Plus, Henry Cavill lives in London, so filming in the UK would be easier for him.
4. Tencent will get a 5-10% stake in Cloud Imperium. I'm waiting on CIG's 2023 financial report so I don't have a real good idea on CIG's spending over the past two years. I am guessing that CIG can't attract venture capital funding so the next best thing is getting money from a big publisher. Tencent fits the bill. Did I mention Tencent also likes picking up little stakes in lots of companies it thinks will do well?
Final Fantasy XIV - And last but not least is Final Fantasy XIV. I got a lot of predictions right last year. The game earned a lot of credit for handling launch traffic well along with the graphics upgrade. And there is also a lot of doom and gloom about the franchise with at least content creators complaining about how bad the Dawntrail expansion was and is.
I was wrong about World of Warcraft impacting Dawntrail's launch as The War Within didn't launch until 26 August, or almost 2 months after the launch of the Dawntrail early launch on 28 June. I was also wrong about both new housing and the cosmic exploration content as neither reached the live servers during 2024. In fact, Dawntrail probably will not new a new housing zone until patch 8.1 in 2026 with players having to settle for the expanded interiors coming to housing in 2025.
So what do I think is in-store for FFXIV in 2025? First, with the next expansion due to release sometime in the summer of 2026 I expect the first fanfest to occur in November, right before the release of patch 7.4. Either at Fanfest or as part of the MSQ in patch 7.4, players will discover the next expansion will have players continue to search for treasure in the frozen waters of Blindfrost, which is north of the continent of Othard. Yes, I think we're returning to the east to visit Doma once again.
Finally I will repeat one of last year's predictions hoping I was just a year early. When cosmic exploration finally comes out I expect the feature to resemble housing more than island sanctuary did. I do think we will also see a restoration project in Garlemald at least teased sometime during the year if not in patch 7.4.
