Another year, another time to make a fool of myself by making predictions for the upcoming year. Personally I had a fairly good year but I don't place a lot of value on my fortune-telling skill. But I really do need to go back and review the predictions I made for 2025 and try to do a better job foretelling 2026.
Crowd Control Productions - Last year I predicted two things. First, that the company would meet Pearl Abyss' expectations of having at least ₩20 billion in revenue for each quarter of 2025. CCP has achieved that level of revenue for the last six quarters and with the launch of the Revenant expansion I don't see that changing.
The second prediction is more problematic. I predicted CCP would see a 10% growth in revenue, meaning either ₩90 billion or $64 million for the year. Through the first three quarters the totals were ₩65.5 billion/$46.4 million. Given the strength of the Catalyst expansion I still have an outside shot of getting this prediction correct but won't know until the next investors' call in February.
For 2026 I may go full fanboi on my predictions. CCP will continue to meet the ₩20 billion per quarter revenue guidance given to investors. I am also going to place a lot of faith in Vanguard and set my revenue prediction for the year at ₩99.0 billion/$70.0 million.
EVE Online - Don't worry, some of my predictions that involve both EVE and a sequel game in the IP will be listed with the other game. I'm going to give myself a half-a-point for calling the summer expansions a hodge-podge of ideas although I think Legion was heavily aimed at null sec. I was dead wrong about the winter expansion concentrating on The Deathless Circle. Instead players got a mining/industrial themed expansion. Players got armed industrial ships, not tech 2 Deathless Circle pirate ships.
In 2026 I am expecting the summer expansion to consist of a hodge-podge of ideas that won't fit nicely into the theme of the winter expansion. The summer expansion will launch in June with the introduction of a new pirate epic arc coming in July. I'm guessing something involving The Deathless Circle but Upwell counts as a pirate faction, right?
For the winter expansion, I think wormholers will receive a major update. CCP hasn't expanded the lore of the Sleepers in a long time. Considering the Drifters killed Empress Jamyl I back in 2015, wormholes and the lore is probably overdue for an update.
Now for a couple of predictions based on Jester's charts. First, the ending average concurrent users in 2026. Jester's graph is showing a 7-day moving average at the beginning of December of over 28,000 accounts logged in at one time. The 30-day moving average is moving upward and almost at 26,000 accounts. I am going to predict that at some point in 2026 the 7-day moving average of concurrent users will exceed 30,000 accounts and the 30-day moving average will end the year over 28,000 concurrent users.
Jester also has another chart displaying the average number of concurrent users logged in per year. Through November the number for 2025 was 22,635, or about 100 accounts less than 2024's average. I'm going to make the wild prediction that Jester's chart shows over 24,000 in 2026. I call the prediction wild as the amount would be the highest average amount of accounts logged in during a year since 2014's 27,490.
One last prediction. In 2025 the peak concurrent user mark for the year reached 41,322. In 2026 I predict the number will reach 42,500. I know, not much of an increase. But the increase would give 2026 the highest yearly PCU since the move to Alpha clones in January 2017.
EVE Vanguard - CCP Games does not have the greatest record with first person shooters. Last year I predicted a successful test of Vanguard in November or December. I'll take the cross-over Operation Nemesis event in September and October as being close enough to count. But I'll also take my prediction of the developers as shying away from null sec as a miss.
I am going to go out on a limb and say that Vanguard will indeed launch on Steam sometime in the third quarter of 2026. The delays for CCP's FPS games dating back to EVE Vegas 2018 are over.
EVE Frontier - I didn't really make a lot of predictions for Frontier in 2025. I did predict another round of venture capital funding but as far as I know that didn't happen. I'll have to count the next prediction as partially correct. CCP did announce how the developers have upgraded the Carbon engine to use Python 3.12 but EVE Online has not switched to the new version of the engine yet.
I will predict for Fanfest 2026 that CCP will present a video showing all the client differences between Online and Frontier. However, the video may not make it to the main stage of Harpa. I will also predict the crypto currency for Frontier will not appear for sale in 2026. If I'm wrong that means Pearl Abyss is in financial trouble and Crimson Desert flopped.
The mobile games - I am going to predict neither EVE Echoes or EVE Galaxy Conquest will shut down in 2026. That's about as far as I feel comfortable predicting.
Pearl Abyss - I managed to only make a prediction about the company returning to profitability in 2025. Once again, we'll need to wait until the February investors' call as the company only had made a net profit of ₩6.8 billion through the first 9 months of 2025. Given recent history the numbers could dip back into the red.
I will make one additional prediction about the South Korean game maker. Expect total revenue in 2026 to fall between ₩550 billion and ₩600 billion.
Black Desert Online - Looks like I was wrong about the revenue Black Desert would bring into Pearl Abyss' coffers in 2025. I predicted a 10% decline down to ₩215.0 billion. The IP, however, bounced back with ₩197.4 billion in revenue through the first three quarters of the year. The Black Desert IP may even see an increase in revenue if Pearl Abyss announces Q4 revenue exceeding ₩52.4 billion. Once again, we'll need to wait on the investors' call in February.
Crimson Desert - I finally got a prediction involving Pearl Abyss' upcoming single-player RPG mostly correct. I posted that I expected Pearl Abyss to announce in November the game would release in the first half of 2026. Pearl Abyss made the announcement in September.
My only prediction for the game is that between 2.5 million and 3 million copies of the game will sell in 2026.
Cloud Imperium Games - What a difference the leadership shakeup at Cloud Imperium had in 2025. Last year I made 4 predictions about CIG and got two totally wrong. First, I predicted a slight decline in year-over-year cash shop revenue down to $113 million. CIG is on pace for $155 million in revenue, an increase of over 30%. I was also wrong about sales during Invictus and IAE only totalling $46.8 million, with actual sales for the two biggest events on the calendar bringing in $59 million. The 15% reduction in new account creation I predicted for 2025 turned into a 45% increase instead.
One I got partially correct was the prediction involving additional outside funding. I predicted Tencent would receive a 5-10% share of CIG in exchange for becoming the company's publisher in China. Instead, Keith Calder paid $5 million to increase his holding in CIG up to 22.4%.
Finally, I did get the closing of the Los Angeles area studio correct. Not much of a prediction, honestly, but CIG did try to hide the complete shutdown of the office so it counts.
Looking into the future I will make a prediction that will affect the rest of my predictions about CIG: Squadron 42 will launch in the fourth quarter of 2026. Given that, cash shop sales will increase 10% in 2026 up to $170 million. The figure will reach much higher if Squadron 42 sales are included in the cash shop counter.
As for new account creation, I am going to fudge the prediction and just say CIG will set a new company record, exceeding 2022's amount of over 871,000 accounts. One million new accounts would not surprise me.
I am going to predict a minor story will emerge in 2026: publication costs. Between the new server meshing technology introduced in 2025 and a surge in interest in Star Citizen, I think the publication line item will hit $90-$100 million in 2026. I also think we will see the number fall within $50-$60 million in the 2024 financial report which CIG has not published as I compose this post.
Star Citizen - I only made one correct prediction for 2025 out of three attempts. I was correct when stating dynamic server meshing would not appear last year. But I was incorrect in my prediction that the alpha 3.24 branch of the game would stay on the production servers until Q2. Also, my prediction that Nyx would not appear in the game in 2025 was incorrect. Admittedly CIG rushed the system into the game without all its planets, but officially the system was launched in 2025.
For 2026 I predict more of the same. Dynamic server meshing will not appear. Nyx, the system I thought CIG would introduce in 2026, will cause some consternation among players. The system will not be considered finished by the end of the year. Perhaps most importantly the capacity of single shards will not exceed 1000 players. That prediction is not necessarily a negative prediction as currently shards are set to handle up to 600 players.
Squadron 42 - I only made one prediction about SQ42 for 2025: Chris Roberts would announce Tencent as the publisher for the game at CitizenCon. Of course I was wrong. For 2026 I will make two predictions. First, the game will launch globally in Q4 2026. Secondly, globally does not mean in the Peoples Republic of China. SQ42 will not launch on the mainland in 2026. Look for Tencent to act as the publisher sometime in 2027.
I should predict the number of units sold in 2026. I believe CIG will announce between 2.5 and 3 million units sold. An impressive figure until one realized that half the figure will have been presales from before 2023 when Squadron 42 sales were disabled on the RSI website.
And finally, Final Fantasy XIV.
As much as I play Final Fantasy XIV I don't really dig into the game as much as I ever did EVE Online. Last year I predicted we would find out at Fanfest in November that Yoshi-P would announce players would return to the Eastern lands to visit the frigid waters of The Blindfrost. Well, none of that happened, with the next Fanfest set for Anaheim in April.
Now for my predictions. The next expansion will take place in the South Sea islands, the original home of the Lalafell. Which means Krile will either serve as the expansion's star or be the ongoing thread holding the multi-expansion story arc together, much as Alphinaud did in the Hydaelyn–Zodiark Saga.
I asked last week which mainline Final Fantasy game I should play. If my prediction is correct, the 8.0 expansion will heavily reference Final Fantasy X, specifically Spira. I guess I know which Final Fantasy game I'm playing next.
I am also going to go out on a limb and say Final Fantasy XIV will not launch its next expansion in 2026. Looking at the historical timings I just can't see a launch happening in December. Expansion launches have always occurred at least 3 months after the Japanese Fanfest, and the next one is on Halloween and All Saints Day. That would lead to a launch of the next expansion no sooner than January or February 2027.
And so concludes another round of predictions. One of these days I'll get more than half the predictions right.
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