The Digital Dozen: 14 January 2014

The rankings of the top twelve MMORPGs as determined by the players of the Xfire community from play on Sunday, 12 January 2014.  For more details about the methodology, click here.  Historical data can be found here.

Rank	Prev Week	Game	Score	Hours Played	+/- %
1	1	World of Warcraft	47.6	14,568	+0.9
2	2	Guild Wars 2	12.5	3,823	-6.2
3	3	Star Wars: The Old Republic	8.9	2,740	-4.6
4	4	Final Fantasy XIV	7.3	2,227	-8.0
5	5	EVE Online	3.8	1,167	-16.6
6	6	Aion	3.7	1,137	-11.4
7	7	Tera	3.6	1,133	-3.6
8	8	Lord of the Rings Online	3.2	972	-9.1
9	9	Neverwinter	3.1	952	+10.3
10	11	Planetside 2	2.4	736	-2.5
11	10	RIFT	2.3	701	-13.1
12	12	Runescape	1.6	485	-27.7

 

Total Digital Dozen Hours: 30,621

The Xfire community resumed its slow decline in playing MMORPGs on Sunday, with this week's decline in playing the 12 most popular games declining by 3.7%.  Ten of the twelve games lost ground, with Guild Wars 2 (-253 hours) and EVE Online (-233 hours) leading the way.  The two games that attracted more time played Sunday were World of Warcraft (+134 hours) and Neverwinter (+89 hours).

Server Merges and Hotfixes - On Thursday Blizzard connected six sets of World of Warcraft realms.  As far as I can tell, "connecting realms" is very close to actually merging the servers.   Combined with the deployment of hotfixes on Friday, was that enough to keep the overall player base interested.  I don't know, but the Xfire community actually spent slightly more time on Sunday playing WoW as compared to the week before.

Don't Blame Elder Scrolls - Despite conducting a beta test weekend, I highly doubt that Elder Scrolls Online is the cause of the across the board drop in playtime Sunday.  Usually when a beta has that type of effect, the game is visible in the Xfire rankings.  I didn't see that Sunday.

Putting The Graph Into Context: 2006 - 2012

I've now read all of the entries for Blog Banter 52 through Khanid Kataphract's entry and I have to say I'm impressed by the quality of writing so far.  I'm also glad to see that some bloggers have used the MMOData.net data set to help explain their thoughts.  Following in Mabrick's footsteps, TurAmarth and Splatus dug deep and extracted some good information.  Not that they were the only ones using the data, but they used some different data that compared EVE and EVE's potential audience to those of other games.

While this post is not a part of BB52, I thought I'd do something I haven't seen yet.  That's right, combine the data from Chribba's chart with the MMOData.net data set.  So instead of playing EVE, I geeked out and played with spreadsheets for the past few days.  What follows is the result.

Data Wants To Be Free

I really hate when I can't write a post because the numbers don't add up.  I had a nice theory about why the famous concurrency graph on Chribba's Eve-Offline.net appears stuck at 30,000 concurrent users.  All I had to do is convert the weekly averages displayed by Chribba into a monthy average, then compare that against the MMOData dataset of EVE Online subscription numbers, make a couple of graphs, type some words, and then look like a genius.  I did this for January 2009 to May 2012.  Sadly, my theory fell apart.

Happily, because I just didn't post my theory without doing my due diligence, I don't look like a complete idiot.  I do see a pattern emerging, but I need to convert the EVE Offline numbers into monthly averages going back to March 2006 to see the actual pattern.  While I won't go so far as to say the graph is a lie, I do think that many take the graph out of context.

Of course, putting the graph into context is harder because CCP stopped supplying hard subscription numbers to the public after May 2012.  I believe that whoever made the decision at CCP would argue that with the reopening of Serenity that mixing the Chinese figures with the subscribers on Tranquility would not really result in good numbers.  But perhaps not.  CCP did announce the EVE Online had surpassed 500,000 subscribers in February 2013, and those figures included China.

In reality, I think that most players are more interested in the number of subscriptions logging into Tranquility, as Serenity is a completely different world.  I know that I am.  The subscription numbers after May 2012 would really show the effect of the War on Bots on EVE.

Right now the only data point I have for Tranquility after May 2012 was provided by the CSM elections in March 2013.  I haven't checked the math personally, but a commenter noted that based on the turnout, the number of subscriptions was between 408,000 and 410,000, which indicated a 10th consecutive year of growth on Tranquility, not just EVE as a whole.  Why bring up the consecutive growth record?  Because I believe that CCP stopped supplying the subscription numbers to Ibe Van Geel because, for the first time, the numbers in July 2012 would not show year over year growth.

I know that Hilmar brought in people from places like Trion and EA in order to bring some professionalism and better practices into CCP following the Summer of Rage.  But one of those standards is trying to obfuscate the subscription numbers, something that CCP had traditionally, unlike most of the industry, provided transparency on.  I think that the outside professionals missed that the player base still has tools to judge the health of the game.  But until CCP decides to remove the API that give players access to the information, we are going to use it, even if the numbers by themselves are imperfect because they lack context.  If CCP would release the subscription numbers every so often, perhaps the players wouldn't keep wondering and trying to figure things out on their own.

Enjoying Blog Banter 52

I normally don't get into the whole blog banter concept, but I think Kirith Kodachi has really knocked it out of the park with the topic for Blog Banter 52:

Go to the always useful EVE-Offline.net (http://eve-offline.net/?server=tranquility) and take a look at the All Time (weekly average) graph for concurrent accounts logged in.

For the past four and a half years, the graph has hovered around that 30,000 mark; it is, for all intents and purposes, a plateau. But everything must come to an end sooner or later and that is what this blog banter is about. 

What's on the other side of that plateau? 

Is there any path for CCP to follow to raise those numbers upwards for a sustained period, or is EVE going to enter a decline to lower logged in numbers from this point?

How soon will we see an end to this plateau? Months? Years? Or will you argue that 'never' is a possibility? Or you can look at the root causes of the plateau and tackle the question if it could have been avoided or shortened if CCP had taken different actions in the past.

Also, what would EVE be like with an order of magnitude fewer or more players?

So far I've only read Rixx, Kirith, and Mabrick's posts.  Very interesting reading and I can't wait to read the rest of the submissions.  Between writing my Digital Dozen column and about the War on Bots as much as I have, I've used Chribba's website a lot.  So I wonder if anyone is going to mention this chunk of the graph?

Source: EVE-Offline.net, Chribba's OMG Labs, 9 Jan 2014

In fairness, Mabrick brought the subject up, but the 24.2% drop in the average concurrent users from the week of 6 June to the week of 19 September is pretty spectacular.  I've written about the reasons in the past, but that picture says more than I did in thousands of words.  I probably need to write a post with this graphic as the centerpiece even if others have explained the drop already.

MMOData Closing Shop

I'm a couple of weeks late with the news, but MMOData published its last chart on 28 December.  The site with the best collection of subscription numbers for MMORPGs will shut down in June.  Ibe Van Geel posted the following reason:

"The biggest reason is that it is getting increasingly difficult to get any useful numbers. Also many of the subscription based MMORPG's went free to play, and their companies tend to not give out useful active accounts numbers."

Van Geel had a pretty good relationship through the years with CCP, even receiving data about EVE Online throughout the Summer of Rage in 2011, showing the ultimate 7.2% drop in subscriptions before the Crucible expansion drove numbers higher again.  But that relationship apparently ended in the summer of 2012, as the last data point for the Tranquility server was for May 2012.  Van Geel had this to say about the Icelandic game company:

"As for the only growing subscription based MMORPG left, EVE Online, I no longer receive subscription numbers. CCP no longer responds to my requests.

"It is a shame really, I doubt that their numbers are declining, but I lost a bit of confidence in CCP, I hope they will give out useful numbers to the public on a consistent basis."

Since then, the only announcement of EVE Online subscriptions was made on 28 February 2013 when CCP put out a press release announcing that the game had surpassed 500,000 accounts.  However, that number included China and players wound up estimating that Tranquility was home to approximately 400,000 accounts.

I'd also like to hope that CCP will once again regularly release subscription statistics.  I realize that the industry practice is to not release numbers unless absolutely necessary, like Activision does for World of Warcraft during its quarterly investor calls.  But one of the things I like about CCP is its openness to the players about things other companies try to hide.  At this point the only indicator the players have of the health of EVE is the average concurrency chart Chribba provides at EVE-Offline.net.

So if anyone is interested, Van Geer has made the charts and data he has collected over the years available for downloading.  The links are:

- The archive : http://users.telenet.be/mmodata/Charts/
- The blogspot : http://mmodata.blogspot.com/search/label/News

And to Ibe Van Geer, thanks for all the work you put into making MMOData such a valuable resource. 

The Digital Dozen: 7 January 2014

The rankings of the top twelve MMORPGs as determined by the players of the Xfire community from play on Sunday, 5 January 2014.  For more details about the methodology, click here.  Historical data can be found here.

Rank	Prev Week	Game	Score	Hours Played	+/- %
1	1	World of Warcraft	45.3	14,434	+6.2
2	2	Guild Wars 2	12.8	4,076	+12.3
3	3	Star Wars: The Old Republic	9.0	2,872	+6.0
4	4	Final Fantasy XIV	7.6	2,421	+10.9
5	6	EVE Online	4.4	1,400	+11.9
6	5	Aion	4.0	1,284	-5.6
7	7	Tera	3.6	1,155	-1.4
8	8	Lord of the Rings Online	3.4	1,069	+3.5
9	9	Neverwinter	2.7	863	-14.1
10	11	RIFT	2.5	807	+1.5
11	12	Planetside 2	2.4	755	-2.6
12	--	Runescape	2.1	671	+51.5

 

Total Digital Dozen Hours: 31,807

2014 started out well as the Xfire community spent 5% more time playing the its 12 favorite MMORPGs as compared to the week before.  Games leading the surge were World of Warcraft (+846 hours) and Guild Wars 2 (+446 hours) while the game experiencing the biggest drop was Need for Speed World (-246 hours).  The drop in popularity also dropped NFSW out of the list.  Runescape replaced the game, making its first appearance after a nine week absence.

Making up for lost time.  Is part of the reason for the surge a desire to make up for lost time?  Of the top 5 games showing the greatest gains Sunday, only Final Fantasy XIV was not hit with a DDoS attack by DERP Trolling.  I would have included Star Wars: The Old Republic, but I'm not sure if the attack on EA.com took down access to SWTOR.  The only game attacked that saw less time spent playing on Sunday was Planetside 2.

Happy Birthday!  Of course, part of Runescape's rise is probably based on players celebrating the game's 13th anniversary on Saturday.  I imagine that part of the celebration continued on Sunday.  At least, Xfire players were celebrating.

Updated Data.  For those interested, I have updated the Google document with all of the Digital Dozen data with all of the 2013 information.

Back To Exploring

Ever since finishing my Sisters of EVE grind a few weeks back I just hadn't felt like playing EVE.  That changed this weekend as I hopped in my Cheetah and started scanning down sites again.

Saturday was an interesting time as I managed to finally find where all the gas sites are.  I found them scattered throughout non-Factional Warfare low sec in Heimatar.  I have to take a closer look but I think I could get into sucking gas into a Venture as a new activity, especially if it is profitable.  I've added Gas Cloud Harvesting V and Mining Frigate V to Wandering Rose's skill queue so I can take full advantage of my discovery.  I was a bit disappointed with my take when I ran a data site.  Only 2 million ISK in drops.  Yikes!  But I didn't have a guide in front of me and I pretty much forgot what cans I was supposed to scoop up.  Score one for stupidity on my part.

On Sunday I went over to the EVE University wiki and pulled up the information on the scatter containers and had the page open.  I also decided that I wanted to make some big money, so I headed out into null sec.  But I didn't want to crash in on an alliance and the intelligence networks they use to protect themselves, so I headed out to NPC null.

I had heard that if I wanted to travel in null sec, just traveling from gate to gate in a ship that is not interdiction nullified like an interceptor or a tech 3 cruiser was a bad idea.  Even though I was only going to make a bookmark at the gate instead of jumping through, I still warped to an asteroid belt in order not to make a straight line jump.  Since I was already there, I made a bookmark near the asteroid belt as well, just in case.  I then set a course to land 100 km from the gate and ... wound up in a bubble.

I didn't panic.  Almost, but not quite.  First, I checked to see if my cloak broke.  Nope, still cloaked.  Next, check my overview to see if any other ships were on grid.  None visible, which meant no cloud of drones would come looking for me trying to decloak me.  Good.  Next, identify the edge of the bubble and fly out of it.  Easy peasy.

Having escaped the bubble, I went ahead an proceeded to make my bookmark.  During this time I saw a couple of ships come by, either getting caught in the bubble or checking to make sure the bubble still worked.  I then decided that instead of traveling to the next gate that I'd visit another asteroid belt first.  So I traveled a good distance away from the belt, made my bookmark, and warped to a spot 100 km from my entry gate.

Or rather tried to.  That's right, I wound up in another bubble.  WTF!  After getting out of the bubble, I saw the row of 4 bubbles, two large and two small, lined up, each with a jet can in front of it.  I guess the jet can was present to decloak any ships as they flew directly from gate to gate.  Because I hit the bubble from an unexpected angle, I wasn't decloaked.  So I slowly motored away.

While making my bookmark on the gate, I saw that the patient tender of the bubbles got to make a kill.  I wish I wrote down what happened, but I saw a ship hit the wall of bubbles, another ship dive in, and then a pod appear.  I guess the victor tried to ransom the pod.  Either that or the loser didn't want to fly far because the pod turned on its self-destruct sequence.  At that point I realized I had not fit a salvager on my Cheetah.  I'll remember for next time.

In the second system I visited I found a relic site.  My first null sec exploration site!  I was a little nervous and abandoned a couple of hacking attempts when another pilot entered the system.  That was actually a good thing as one of the pilots was flying a Helios and tried to probe me down, using combat probes instead of scanner probes.  Thankfully combat probes don't work on stealthed ships.  I managed to eventually hack all the containers, but only got 4.5 million ISK in drops.  Well, and one tech 2 blueprint copy.  I guess Large Emission Scope Sharpener II rigs are fairly rare.  I can now make two of them.  Gives me an incentive to keep exploring and trying to find tech 2 salvage.

After booking marking 3 null sec systems and only finding combat and wormholes the rest of the time, I flew back to my home in low.  Along the way I found a few more gas sites and one more data site.  The site yielded another 2.2 million ISK in drops (two cans were empty) plus a 3-run BPC to make Medium Ancillary Shield Boosters. 

All in all, not the greatest weekend I've ever had exploring.  What saved the weekend was that I not only operated for a couple of hours in null sec, but that I also came away with my first tech 2 blueprint copy I've found.  Also, finding where I need to go in order to find gas clouds is a definite plus.  So perhaps I'm just better set up to have a more productive time next weekend.

The Importance Of The CSM Minutes

I have to admit I wasn't tearing down the walls demanding the minutes from CSM 8's summer summit.  I tried to work up the outrage, honest, but I never really felt it.  But then I read a column about Lord of the Rings Online that made me see the light on why the minutes process, if not this particular set of minutes, is important.  This particular article dealt with the release of a producer's letter, and Massively's Justin Olivetti let loose with how he felt about LotRO's player council.

"OK, I've mentioned the player's council before a couple of times, but this whole concept irks me, particularly how often Paiz brings it up in her letter. I am not on the player council. You, most likely, are not either. But we have this group of people who have a higher level of access to the devs' ears engaging in projects and conversations that are kept from us. We're just told, as in this letter, that these discussions are going on and to trust Turbine that it's helping us and the game as a whole to have these players represent us. Why should we?
"I generally try my hardest not to remember that there is a player council because I feel that it's such a bad idea. It smacks of laziness, for one: "Let's make these hand-picked players collate feedback for us so that we have to really pay attention to only a dozen or so folks." The lack of transparency makes everyone nervous because important decisions and conversations are going on that affect us and we're not even privvy to the specifics after the fact. Finally, the whole thing feels as if Turbine has its "teacher's pets" that it fawns over while ignoring the rest of the community. I'm not saying this is the reality, just the feeling that it gives. And I know for a darn fact that I'm not the only one who sees it this way.
"I'd be really OK with dissolving the player council entirely. We didn't ask for it; we don't need it. I'm sure good folks are on it and try to do their best to help the game, but the formation and operation of it is so suspect that I can't give the council this benefit of the doubt. I think that as long as it remains, we have good reason to be wary."

Kind of different from the Council of Stellar Management, isn't it?  The CSM was formed in the wake of the T20 standard while Turbine decided they needed a way to get player feedback.  Unlike the CSM, LotRO's player council is selected by the devs, not elected by the player base.  Also, unlike the CSM, LotRO's player council does not have a history of coming into conflict with Turbine like the CSM has with CCP.

But here is the sentence that opened my eyes.  "The lack of transparency makes everyone nervous because important decisions and conversations are going on that affect us and we're not even privvy to the specifics after the fact."  Are these just the tears from a writer who wasn't given some easy material to make a buck?  Perhaps.  But given the restructuring of the classes that occurred in the latest expansion and the reaction I've read on the forums (yes, I know, official forums suck), perhaps having over 60 people who don't even play on your server helping making such far reaching changes is a bit unsettling.

I am not going to claim that CCP is perfect where the subject of transparency is concerned.  Businesses have the right to keep secrets and the NDA is not always just an excuse to hide an unpopular decision until the last minute.  But I do like the idea that CCP has a group like the CSM it can use as a focus group that it can bounce ideas off of.  The NDA does serve the purpose of keeping players from shooting monuments in Jita over an idea that never will see the light of day.

The minutes do serve a useful purpose.  They are the record of the discussions between CCP and the CSM about the changes in EVE.  Those discussions reveal the thinking of CCP about the changes (or lack of) in the game.  That was my thinking, although I think a lot less people will read them since the minutes were released 7 weeks after the launch of Rubicon. 

I think that's a problem.  If the CSM really wants the minutes to have a greater impact, they have to ensure they are released earlier.  I also think, if CCP really believes in the product it is producing, that the devs should want the minutes released earlier as well.  In the case of this set of minutes, I don't see the delay as more than a speed bump.  But once the big exploration changes hit in 2015, I think that CCP will find the CSM and the summit minutes a very useful way of showing that they didn't just come up with a bunch of crazy ideas in isolation on their island in the middle of the North Atlantic.

The Year Ahead

This is the last of the traditional New Year's posts, just written and published one day late due to a DDoS attack, an EVE Radio contest, and a half-bottle of Jack Daniels.  Having written a review of botting and RMT plus a predictions post, the only thing left to write about are my plans for 2014.

I won't really go into my plans for EVE since I do that every August on the anniversary of creating my first account.  I will state I am officially not running for CSM 9.  Hopefully that announcement doesn't catch anyone by surprise.  Quite frankly, even if I was more knowledgeable about the game and better connected politically, that minutes process is a mess and I wouldn't want to get anyplace close to it.  Way too much work for me.

For gaming, I have two single-player games I really want to finish: Tropico 4 and Kerbal Space Program.  Tropico 5 is due out sometime in 2014 and I'd like to finish Tropico 4 before the new game comes out.  I also haven't bought the Propaganda, The Academy, or Apocalypse DLCs.  I probably won't.  Kerbal Space Program is a very intriguing game.  I've played the tutorials and with the campaign game coming along I'd like to play that after I finish Tropico 4.

As for MMORPGs other than EVE, the only new one due out in 2014 I'm really excited about is Wildstar.  I'm interested in Landmark, but I won't pay to get into the alpha or beta.  Maybe something will come out of left field, but I've only got enough money for two subscription games and I don't seem to stick with the F2P games.  Maybe Landmark and EQNext in 2015 will change that.

I don't see the blog changing that much over 2014.  Perhaps more news about Wildstar as I play it.  One thing I plan on doing to looking into other games and how they are adapting concepts originated by CCP.  The most obvious is how companies like Jagex and Carbine are using their versions of PLEX.  Expect to see some posts with charts now that I've got 3 months of data on Runescape.

I do have to note that I plan on continuing the Digital Dozen through 2014, but if things don't get better for Xfire I may stop at the end of the year.  I like gathering the numbers, but at a certain point even I will admit that Xfire doesn't really tell us much.  But I'm not there yet.

So this finishes my year end posts for 2013.  Only 51 weeks until I get to do it again.

Stillman's Sendoff

After 4 years, today is my last day as a CCPer. It's been a blast #tweetfleet. But I'll still be over at @CharlieEriksen. Happy new year!
— CCP Stillman (@CCP_Stillman) December 31, 2013

Yesterday was CCP Stillman's last day at CCP.  In true EVE Online fashion, he was thrown one more challenge as EVE Online suffered a DDoS attack.  But he finished in time to attend the New Year's Eve party.


CCP Stillman is moving on to Syndis, an information security think-tank based in Reykjavik.  That means that Fanfest attendees have a chance of spotting him around town.  And if he decides to run for CSM again, people won't be able to use the argument that he just wants a free trip to Iceland.  He's already there.