Predicting The Future Of EVE Online's Global PLEX Market

When I first started looking into regulations surrounding online games I actually thought about EVE Frontier. I figure a non-zero chance exists that government regulations concerning crypto-currencies will prevent the game from ever seeing a commercial launch. Then, an unusual event occurred: the creation of a global PLEX market. While CCP Games has publicly stated the EVE Online and EVE Frontier development teams are kept completely separate, I pretty sure the same corporate lawyers serve both games. So when the global PLEX market was announced, I decided to see if some of the proposed regulations that would affect Frontier would also apply to Online.

The result of the research was a 2600 word report from Copilot that I edited, added a couple of things to, and published last week. But where the New Eden economy is concerned looking backward is only valuable if the history accurately informs predictions for future developments. Today's post is an effort to look forward 12-18 months to predict what a more finished form of the global PLEX market will look like, keeping in mind upcoming governmental regulations like the European Union's Digital Fairness Act.

First, I needed to come up with a description describing the purpose of the global PLEX market. I found one in an EU working paper published in October 2024: the mixed pot.  The mixed pot model involves a single in-game currency like ISK that players can either earn through gameplay or buy outright with real money. Under this design, no technical distinction exists between "earned" and "purchased" units of currency once they’ve entered a player’s balance—hence all tokens sit in one shared "pot."

The mixed pot model has three key characteristics I think most EVE players would consider features:

• Uniform utility: Whether a token was earned or bought, it grants the same access—to items, boosts, entry fees, etc.
  
  
• Dual accrual paths: Players who invest time can accumulate currency via quests, achievements, or play-to-earn loops, while others may skip the gameplay via direct purchase with real world currency.
  
  
• Seamless interchange: Games often allow conversion between earned/purchased tokens at a fixed or dynamic rate, or simply don’t distinguish them at redemption.

As expected, though, the EU regulators who put the document together have different ideas. Here are four areas of concern.

• Value opacity: Players can’t easily tell how much “free” play is actually worth. If this seems weird, I think so too. I believe the regulators would like CCP to change the wallet UI to hold how much ISK a player has earned in-game verses that purchased on the market.
  
  
• Fairness concerns: If paid tokens speed progression or confer exclusive perks, it risks turning skill-based systems into pay-to-win scenarios—running afoul of “fairness by design” principles.
  
  
• Refund complexity: When consumers request refunds, providers struggle to identify which tokens originated from purchases versus gameplay, complicating chargebacks and consumer rights enforcement. This goes back to the split of in-game money mentioned in the first point.
  
  
• Financial safeguards: If mixed-pot tokens fuel chance-based mechanics such as Hyper cores or Abyssal Mutaplasmids, they may trigger gambling or e-money regulations in some jurisdictions.

Next comes the predictions. Some of these don't require trying to adhere to regulations coming out of Brussels.

The NPC operator of the market - As the rules of the global PLEX market differ from all other markets, the market needs additional lore. The obvious operators? InterBus. I'm sure the developers can come up with a name with a slick acronym.

Direct link from the New Eden Store - Just as the New Eden Store has a direct link from the Paragon Hub, so too will the global PLEX market.

Button on the NeoCom - As a revenue source, the global PLEX market will have its own button on the NeoCom to make access easier. Also to differentiate the market from the rest of the markets that only exchange in-game items.

Elimination of all taxes and fees - I believe the introductory dev blog alluded to the possibility, but in the interest of making all transactions involving PLEX as simple as possible, all taxes and fees will be removed.

Removal of PLEX from all contracts - With no taxes or fees and a single market, the only other way to vary the price of PLEX is in contracts. Removing the ability to trade PLEX via contract makes the transactions as easy and transparent as possible.

Display of real world currency equivalents - Reading the proposed regulations I see no way that the developers do not at least display a dollar/euro/pound/yen conversion of the price of 1 billion ISK. I see a minimum of three places the real world value will be displayed. First is the value of the cheapest buy order. Next is the value of the cheapest sell order. And finally on the confirmation box when asked "Are you sure you want to make this transaction?"

Keeping track of PLEX for ISK transactions - Honestly, I don't see a way of enforcing refunds for trades between players. But I do think a requirement to show players how much real money they spend will be met.

I think in the next year or so regulations out of the EU will affect the online video game industry. From lootboxes to virtual currency sales a lot of companies will need to alter their business practices. But EVE Online and CCP Games won't walk away unscathed. The only question is what EVE will look like once the fallout settles down. Hopefully my predictions are not totally off-base.