A Quick History Of Christmas PLEX Prices

With the recent drop in PLEX prices since the release of the latest security dev blog on Friday, I wanted to find out if the change was just seasonal or if other forces are at work.  I have information on the PLEX market in The Forge going back to November 2011, so I pulled up the data for the last four years and created a couple of quick tables.

Christmas Day Price Changes: 2011-2014, In ISK

First, yesterday's 21 million ISK drop in the average price of PLEX sold on Christmas Day seemed rather steep, but prices were at all time highs.  Was the percentage change in line with the last few years?  Well, historically, the price of PLEX has dropped, but not quite that much.  Yesterday's price decrease was almost double the drop from last year.

Christmas And The 6 Days Prior: 2011-2014, In ISK

Next, I wanted to see the change from the 19th, the day CCP published the dev blog, to Christmas.  Once again, history shows that prices decline during this period, but even in percentage terms, PLEX prices took a big hit this year compared to the previous three years.

Before I run off and start claiming that the security dev blog is responsible for the drop in PLEX, I need to point out what occurred in 2012.  In that year, like 2014, PLEX surged to record highs.  On 10 October 2012, the average price reached a then record 647.1 million ISK, with some PLEX sold for over 660 million ISK.  A bargain today, but at the time the surge in price was so great the EVE Central Bank apparently intervened and the price dropped 11.6%, down to 572 million ISK, only two days later.  The market did not bottom out until the average price reached 551 million ISK on 31 December 2012.  Over those 11 weeks, the price fell 14.9%.

So, was the large drop in the price of PLEX over the past 7 days just a natural reaction caused by the PLEX market declining due to a bubble bursting combined with the Christmas holiday?  Or are other forces at work?  Personally, I think the bubble burst first, due to the price hitting 1 billion ISK on 19 November 2014 and the inevitable profit taking that ensued, with the price dropping 3.3% from 19 November to 24 November.  But I think the bubble burst even harder when six days later, CCP Falcon published the input broadcasting ban.  At that point, the market expected demand to dramatically decline with the expected exodus of ISBoxer accounts, and the prices showed.  On 25 November, the day that CCP Falcon's post appeared on the EVE Online forums, the average price of PLEX dropped 5.1%, from 945 million ISK down to 896.8 million ISK. 

The price has fluctuated pretty wildly since 26 November, when the price fell to 878.5 million ISK.  Overall, however, the trend continued downward, as from 26 November to 19 December, the price dropped another 3.9%.  So anyone betting the market probably foresaw this week's declining PLEX price, just due to historical trends, both seasonal and in reaction to the bubble bursting.  But the bubble is bigger this year, with the market falling 19.7% over the past five weeks.

So my conclusion?  Yes, the prices declined due to seasonal trends.  But the decline was greatly exaggerated due to the effects of a bursting market bubble.  As for the effects of upcoming enforcement changes?  Well, I think they may have played a hand in the market falling as far as it has.