Monday, September 25, 2023

Fun Facts About EVE Online's CSM 18 Election

Besides the benefits of getting together with friends who play a niche internet spaceship game, EVE Fanfest also announces the results of the Council of Stellar Management election. I normally compose a couple of posts about the results of the election. But since Wilhelm over on The Ancient Gaming Noob did such a good job of covering the news, I'll just post the fun article. That's right, what are the fun facts coming out of the CSM 18 election.

1. Not record turnout. The possibility exists that the turnout rate was the highest in history, but this year's 47,155 votes cast only gets the CSM 18 election into the top 5 elections of all time. The top 5 elections with votes cast were:
  1. CSM 7 (2012): 59,109
  2. CSM 8 (2013): 49,702
  3. CSM 6 (2011): 49,096
  4. CSM 18 (2023): 47,155
  5. CSM 5 (2010): 39,433
The turnout increase over the CSM 17 of 16,341 votes cast (53%) also did not set a record. That record was set by the CSM 5 election. In 2010, the voting increased by 18,275 votes, an 86.4% increase over the CSM 4 election. The CSM 5 election was notable because CSM 5 was the first body elected to a one year term.

2. Losing with big numbers. In the CSM 18 election three candidates: Dujek Oneye (1484), Arhont Sibirskii (1480), and Torvald Uruz (1032) lost despite being listed as the first choice on over 1000 ballots. But CSM 8, in the first year of CSM using single-transferrable voting, had 6 such candidates. The list of previous candidates accomplishing this dubious achievement is:

1678 - Greene Lee
1616 - Nathan Jameson
1525 - Psychotic Monk
1487 - Corebloodbrothers 
1286 - Steve Ronuken
1213 - Banlish

CSM 10
1099 - UAxDEATH

CSM 12
1291 - Sort Dragon

CSM 13
1091 - ExookiZ

CSM 14
1500 - Sort Dragon

3. The 1000/2000 rule. I have a general rule of thumb about CSM elections. If a candidate can get 1000 first choice votes and over 2000 votes overall, the candidate will probably win. Dujek Oneye (1484/2916) and Torvald Uruz (1032/2220) are the fourth and fifth candidates to violate the rule. The other three were Nathan Jameson (1616/2430) and Banlish (1213/2173) in CSM 8 and Sort Dragon (1500/2321) in CSM 14.

4. Weakness in the Imperium ballot. I have said for years that in the STV voting system, larger turnout hurts the big null sec blocs. The null sec alliances always maximize their voting power. Only when a lot of non-null players vote is their power diminished.

A quick look at the voting file confirmed this belief. As usual, the official Imperium ballot had the most votes. But the candidate occupying the third spot on the ballot, Kontan Rekor, only received 300 votes, exiting the election simulation in the 11th round. The only other time someone in the top three spots of the Imperium/CFC ballot failed to win a CSM seat was Banlish, the candidate in the second position on the ballot, in the first STV election in 2013.

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