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Monday, October 29, 2012

Scattered Thoughts On The War On Bots

I don't have a big post on CCP's War On Bots™ today.  Sometimes patience is a good thing in watching the world of botting and illicit RMT.  With Team Security's crackdown now entering its eighth month, most of the tears have dried up from the botting forums but I'm finding some interesting open source information that I need to develop.  Until then I have a few thoughts on what is currently happening in the run-up to Retribution.

One thought is that the campaign to make botting socially unacceptable that CCP Stillman announced at Eve Vegas isn't coming too soon.  Over the weekend I read on the Eve Pilot forums a thread in which a new botter had been caught for the first time but thought he could just alter his behavior and keep botting.  The bot dev and long time users tried to warn the new botter that he needed to take additional measures to protect himself.  I don't think the botter really believed the advice he received.  I believe we are seeing a new wave of botters who have no fear of Team Security.

Another item I'm noticing is that the price of illicit ISK is coming down.  Since I'm not an expert in the illicit ISK selling sites I am using the sites listed on MMOBUX.  Over the past two weeks the median price has fallen 1.8% from $22.41 per 1 billion isk down to $22.00.  Why?  I don't know.  I do know that the number of sites listed has declined from 34-36 when I looked at illicit ISK prices back in May down to 29 sites this morning.  In fact, two sites were unlisted overnight with one site, IGEVE, displaying a page stating that the website is down last night.  Are the two things related?  One thing I do know from following Chribba's new website Eve Live that spambots are advertising in Jita local even cheaper rates than those found on MMOBUX.

My final thought extends past the Eve Gate and into the outside world.  Is Team Security's effectiveness ultimately dependent on how other companies police botting and RMT?  If new waves of players come into Eve from other games who believe that botting is acceptable will we ever be rid of our automated friends?  Is John Smedley and SOE going to blow the implementation of Kronos and forget that the original idea of PLEX was to battle the illicit RMT trade?  And is ArenaNet going to get its bot problem under control?  Well, for now I just need to read Blagpuss' blog to know how the global war on bots is progressing on the Tyria front.

Thursday, October 25, 2012

Grind And Goals

Currently I'm playing two games, Eve Online and Guild Wars 2.  I thought that by playing two games I could do the grind in one of them and then switch to the other and do interesting stuff.  Well, that plan went out the window early because I just didn't realize what a grindfest Guild Wars 2 is.

Eve players use the word "grind" to mean things they have to do in order to get the ISK they need to PvP.  Those that don't like PvP use the word to refer to activities that increase standings with NPC corporations or factions.  I'm currently grinding level 4 distribution missions with the Sisters of Eve in order to not only get the loyalty points but to get full use of Sisters of Eve station services like refining for free (or in the case of the market at a vastly reduced price).  With current standings of 5.68, I think I can finish my grind this weekend and then do a week or so of exploration and bookmarking systems before going back to another standings grind.

Guild Wars 2, on the other hand, is full of grind.  Just a warning to all the crafters out there: gathering materials is a grind!  The best advice for playing Guild Wars 2 is to not just play through the story and quest lines if you want to make gear that is useful as you level up.  When I finished up Queensdale, the human starter area, I don't think I was level 15 in either of my crafting professions.  I've spent my time the past couple of weeks gathering copper, cloth and leather in the attempt to level up.  I think I'd rather mine in high-sec.  Ugh!  Hopefully once I hit level 25 in my crafting professions I'll have enough materials to make the unneeded items to level my crafting to the next level of items.  On the plus side, since I've now hit level 20 because I get adventure experience for gathering and crafting I'm not worried about content being too difficult anymore.  Of course, I am playing a ranger and I hear rangers are OP.

I think the reason that I find the grind in Guild Wars 2 more irritating than the one in Eve Online are my goals.  In Guild Wars 2 my goal is to reach max level in adventuring and in all the crafting lines.  I don't really have to have any intermediate goals because the game will supply those.  That means making a lot of items that I'm just going to salvage to reuse the materials so I can craft more useless items.  Sure, at the end of the line I can craft legendary items, but is the payoff after months of effort worth it?

In Eve, the goals I set are my own, so the grind is something I really impose on myself.  Here are just some of the goals I've set over the past three years.
  • Join Eve University and begin to get a clue how to play.
  • Get jump clones.
  • Get perfect refining for Wandering Rose.
  • Get capability to manufacture all my own ammunition.
  • Buy a Rupture.
  • Buy a Cheetah.
  • Buy a Hurricane.
  • Buy a Maelstrom.
  • Manufacture my own tech 2 ships.
  • Get blueprints to make meta items from COSMOS missions.
  • Set up a home in low sec.
  • Upgrade exploration equipment.
The big difference is that a lot of the goals I set in my first six months of playing are still useful today.  That ammunition I made for my Rupture is still useful when I fly a Hurricane.  The ammunition I made for my Rifter is still usable when I fly my Jaguar.  And I have so many extra blueprints from when I was doing invention that I can still make tech 2 ships if I decide to buy the materials off the market.  By the way, have the prices gone down yet?

In contrast to Eve, will the things I'm doing in this first tier of content in Guild Wars 2 prove useful further down the line except as a stepping stone to further content?  Perhaps I'm wrong but I doubt it.  Of course, I have to finish this stupid grind I'm on in order to find out.

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

A New Challenge

When Sansha Kuvakei decided to play in the constellation I was operating in last week, I decided to move to the nearest Sisters of Eve station with a level 4 distribution agent and start grinding standings.  The standings themselves are nice but I was more interested in getting enough loyalty points to purchase the Sisters' scanning gear.

If Poetic Stanzeil is correct and all carebears are deranged, then my condition is fairly harmless.  I hate purchasing ammunition and scan probes fall in that category.  I even ran the Wildfire level 4 epic mission arc to the get RSS Scan probes instead of buying them.  So I started looking at the blueprints for the regular scan probes and decided that despite the fact that at 4.5 million ISK a copy for the blueprint originals making my own probes is not cost effective, I wanted to make my own regular probes to turn in for Sisters' probes.

In my old high-sec days a few months ago, the materials list would have seemed daunting.  Lots of low sec minerals on the list.  But now that I'm living in low-sec, only two of the materials are a challenge: megacyte and strontium clathrates.  Megacyte is a challenge because the proper gravimetric sites holding Spodumain don't pop up all that frequently.  However, I have a bunch of megacyte sitting in a hanger because I didn't want to sell it because I might want to use it one day.  I was thinking of building ships, but scan probes are useful also.

The second material, strontium clathrates, isn't really challenging to get.  All I have to do is mine ice.  Have I mentioned I've never mined ice outside of a mission?  And that ice in high sec only yields 1 unit of strontium clathrates per unit of ice?  Ugh!  But low sec holds two different types of ice that yields more.  Glare crust yields 25 units of strontium clathrates and dark glitter yields 50 units per unit of ice refined.

In case you are new to Eve, ice mining in low-sec is pretty dumb unless done as part of a large corp operation.  One could say only a deranged person would mine ice in low-sec.  Especially since only one system in Minmatar low-sec contains dark glitter.  Yes, that ice is that rare to find.    I might just skip the ice mining portion and buy straight off the market.  Or maybe not.  I think the insurance on my Procurer is about to expire.  The only question I have now is: do I fit a prop mod or a web?  I already know if I go ice mining I'm going to fit a point.

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

The Digital Dozen: 23 October 2012

The rankings of the top twelve MMORPGs as determined by the players of the Xfire community from play on Sunday, 21 October 2012.  For more details about the methodology, click here.  Historical data can be found here.



Rank Prev Week Game ScoreHours Played +/- %
11World of Warcraft 49.2 50,344-9.1
22Guild Wars 225.726,282-11.5
33Star Wars: The Old Republic4.44,512+0.3
44Aion3.43,526+4.5
57Lord of the Rings Online3.43,453+36.9
65Eve Online3.13,186+4.3
76Metin 22.92,928+3.8
88APB: Reloaded2.12,168+5.4
99Need For Speed World1.81,811+15.2
1010Planetside 2 (Beta)1.61,645+12.2
1111Star Trek Online1.21,269+8.5
1212Vindictus1.21,217+5.0
 
Total MMORPG hours played Sunday: 127,131
 
Usually when 10 out of the top 12 MMORPGs played by the Xfire community see a rise in play the overall hours played rises.  But the two games with a decline in play were Guild Wars 2 (-11.5%) and World of Warcraft (-9.1%), thus resulting in an overall decline of 4.8.% in hours played.  The game seeing the biggest rise in interest Sunday was Lord of the Rings Online seeing an increase of 36.9%.

Lord of the Rings Rides On - Last Monday saw the release of the Riders of Rohan expansion for Lord of the Rings Online, propelling the Turbine product up 2 spots on the Digital Dozen and netting an impressive 36.9% jump in hours played by the Xfire community.  I'm not sure how much of the new content is available to the free players but I don't expect LotRO to drop too much over the coming weeks.

Guild Wars 2 Is Not Dying Yet - Last week I asked if anyone had started asking if Guild Wars 2 was dying due to the double-digit declines in play every week.  Tobold stepped up and argued that no, GW2 was not dying.  I agree and have one reason Tobold didn't cite.
To me, Guild Wars 2 is effectively an expansion, with most players moving from the original game to the sequel.   Considered as an expansion, over 2 million unit sales over the first month puts it in the neighborhood of the Mists of Pandaria sales.  Unlike EA/Bioware and Star Wars: The Old Republic that reportedly required 500,000 subscribers to break even, I would wager that GW2's box and download sales will more than cover ArenaNet's development costs.

Guild Wars was not a failing game with a strong interest from the Xfire community in the six months leading up to the launch of GW2.  Along with the strong sales if ArenaNet can hold onto more players willing to use the cash shop than played Guild Wars by the time the first expansion for GW2 is released, then the game will be a commercial success.

Monday, October 22, 2012

The Icelandic Influence On SOE

"SOE is redefining itself as a creator of emergent gameplay experiences. That's our future."

Apparently CCP's influence on game studios in San Diego goes beyond former Eve Online senior producer Nathan Richardsson becoming the executive producer for Trion World's new MMO Defiance.  Sony Online Entertainment is starting to add elements to their games influenced by Eve Online.  In an interview with The Mittani in September SOE President (and HBC member) John Smedley acknowledged that Eve had influenced parts of Planetside 2.  But at this weekend's SOE Live event in Las Vegas SOE players got to see firsthand the upcoming plans for their games.

At John Smedley's keynote address Friday night he made a couple of notable announcements that, if not attractive to Eve Online players would sound very familiar.  The first was about a new way to pay for their premium subscriptions using in-game currency.  SOE is moving all of their games to a hybrid model in which people can either play as a traditional free-to-play model or can pay a subscription.  Up until June players in EverQuest 2 had developed a system in which players traded Station Cash for platinum, the highest denomination of in-game currency.  But that came to an end when a $15 Station Cash card purchased at Wal-Mart was able to pay for an entire year's subscription.

To replace what the players had tried to develop Smed announced the Kronos.  The Kronos is an in-game item good for 30 days of game time that can be sold between characters.  And while I haven't heard the presentation, I believe the word PLEX was mentioned to describe the Kronos.

The concept of emergent game play also figured prominently into SOE's plans.  I'm not sure how SOE will foster emergent game play, but if Smed had fun during the Burn Jita event (which is possible since he was a member of the CFC at the time) perhaps he will find a way.  Or perhaps the SOE chief is thinking of player organizations like Eve University, of which he was a one-time member.  Could his game developers plan on developing good corporation guild interfaces?

Perhaps the biggest piece of news concerned EverQuest Next.
"I have to be honest with you. We have completely blown up the design of EverQuest Next. For the last year and a half we have been working on something we are not ready to show. Why did we blow up the design? The design was evolutionary. It was EverQuest III. It was something that was slightly better that what had come before it. IT was slightly better. What we are building is something that we will be very proud to call EverQuest. It will be the largest sandbox style MMO ever designed. The same exciting content delivered in a new way. Something you’ve never seen before. The MMO world has never seen before. We didn’t want more Kill 10 Rats quests. We didn’t want more of the same. If you look at the MMOs out there, they’re delivering the same content over and over again. So are we. We need to change that. When we released EverQuest, we changed the world. We want to do that again with a different type of game.

"What I will commit to is, at the next Fan Faire, not only will you get to see it but you will get to touch it. Most of the EQNext devs are in this room. If you get them drunk enough they might tell you. They’re led by Dave Georgeson. Terry Michaels. Vets from EQ and EQ2. We are remaking Norrath unlike anything you’ve ever seen, but you’ll recognize it. I’m sorry we don’t have anything to show for it, but I wanted to be honest with you and tell you a little bit about it. Keep the faith." [emphasis mine]
News from the convention indicates that emergent game play will be a feature of upcoming games as well as EQNext.  SOE is developing Dragon's Prophet with Runewalker, makers of Runes of Magic.  According to Massively...
"The class-based free-to-play fantasy MMO is a collaboration with Runes of Magic developer Runewaker, and it boasts some curious features like extensive player housing and frontier systems. The site says the housing system allows for the construction of 'epic structures that defy imagination,' while the frontier mechanics grant guild leaders the power to build a kingdom complete with citizens and a powerful military."
Player-built kingdoms on the frontier?  That's not introducing null sec to a fantasy MMO is it?

SOE is definitely setting itself up as an innovative company in the MMO space once again.  Perhaps not as innovative as a company trying to merge a subscription PC spaceship game and a console F2P MMOFPS together into one virtual world, but CCP had a headstart in attempting crazy ideas no one thought would work.  But at this stage of MMO development, following a bunch of space vikings may prove the road to success.




Friday, October 19, 2012

Low Sec Incursions

Logistics.  For me that means grinding standings with NPC corporations so I can have perfect refining at stations in the system I mine in.  I really don't like jumping through gates with ore; refined minerals are so much smaller.  If the station contains a factory, even better.

I located a good station to set up as a second home in low sec and a great pair of agents handing out level 4 courier missions in another constellation.  With the pair never giving me missions longer than two jumps the standings were rising swiftly.  Then I logged in last night and found that Sansha Kuvakei decided to pay a visit.  That's right, my system was the subject of an incursion.

I expect the incursion to last a week.  Unlike high sec incursions where the event is dragged out while the incursion runners farm the NPCs, I hear that no one bothers to dig Sansha out of low sec constellations.  And why should they?  No honest pilot lives in low sec because vast hordes of rampaging evil pirates jump on people the second they uncloak after jumping into a low sec system.

Actually, for incursion fleets that last statement probably isn't very far from the truth.  I've never run an incursion myself but I hear that the top fleets are called "shiny" fleets because of all the expensive fittings put on the ships.  If word spreads of a shiny fleet in low sec, I expect pirates would soon find it.  After all, pirates down through the ages have loved shiny objects like gold, diamonds and faction fit Machariels.

So with Sansha paying a visit I'll have time to set up some more bookmarks around my second home.  I've made sure I'm in a different constellation so that one incursion won't shut me totally down.  Or maybe I'll take a trip and grind faction with the Sisters of EVE and at the same time get some nice scanning gear.  Fortunately I haven't gotten to the point in Eve that an event in one system or constellation keeps me from having fun.

Thursday, October 18, 2012

The Heavy Missile Nerf And Bots

People that know me know I'm horrible at Eve.  I can fly around cloaky and generally avoid trouble, but I'm pretty bad at other things, like shooting other ships.  If the ship isn't an Angel Cartel NPC, bet on the other guy.  I'm a Minmatar pilot who can also fly ORE ships.  Get me away from those and I'm pretty lost.

That leads me to a problem.  How am I supposed to gauge the effect of the upcoming nerf to heavy missiles on bots?  I was able to look at how the mining ship changes would affect botters because I have pilots with good mining skills.  But how do I judge the effect of the changes on the Tengu, a very popular ship with botters?  From everything I've heard, botters like two attributes on their mission/ratting ships: range and a hefty shield tank.  But I really don't have any way to judge on the test server because I have no Caldari ship skills at all.

A couple of weeks ago Ripard Teg wrote a post looking at the effect that the heavy missile changes will have.  Living in Syndicate and engaging in small scale PvP I don't think Ripard thought too much about how the changes would affect PvE, but I found this analysis illuminating:
"The lack of TE bonuses also puts paid to the idea of greatly extended ranges on torpedo-fit battleships, which is probably one of the main reasons why the idea was scuttled for now.  Pity too, because I was looking forward to a renaissance of extra-long-range torp Ravens and Typhoons.  It might still happen, but it won't be soon.

"These changes, though, pale next to the continued savaging of the Heavy Missile Launcher.  While the damage nerf is being reduced somewhat, from 20% to 10%, the explosion radius is also being increased.  That's mostly going to impact the HML's ability to damage the new destroyers and armor HAC gangs.  Damage from an HML Drake to a Guardian will essentially be cut in half.  It's a big nerf.  The 25% range penalty also remains, adjusted slightly to impact missile flight time instead of velocity.  Missile velocity is actually being buffed twice over which is going to somewhat help the HML's ability to actually deliver damage on target in a timely fashion.


"But it won't much matter because fewer people will be fitting the things."
Fewer people may use heavy missile launchers, but what about bots?  Is the nerf going to reduce the DPS from Tengus enough to make then not as useful in running level 4 missions?  The Tengu was tailor-made for botters since the training time for the ship is so much faster than for the Raven.  And according to Ripard's analysis the Raven is not getting buffed via a tracking enhancement buff so that doesn't produce an incentive to just train for a torp Raven right off the bat.

From what I can tell botters may need to go back to flying Ravens once Retribution launches in December.  Combine the heavy missile changes with a crackdown on the illicit RMT activities of some null sec alliances and I may have some interesting forum reading ahead of me in the months to come.  Of course, I could be completely wrong.  So what do you think?  I'd really like to know.

Wednesday, October 17, 2012

America Needs Funky Bacon

After watching last night's U.S. presidential debate I am convinced more than ever that I should vote for Mittens.  No, not the imposter Mittens: Mitt Romney.  I'm referring to the original Mittens, Eve Online's favorite spy master/tyrant/media mogul The Mittani.  Too bad The Mittani is not running because I think this year has shown that the U.S. currently has the worst political class in my 48 years of living on planet Earth.  He'd win in a landslide.

But enough about The Mittani.  What has me riled up currently is the press.  Not the gaming press who I've railed against before, but the real world mainstream media.  Specifically the presidential debates.  I watched the one last night and the moderator, CNN's Candy Crowly stepped on it.  She decided to interject herself into the debate on the subject of Libya and then admitted she was wrong about her facts on CNN afterwards.

Two paragraphs about U.S. politics is enough because I have not come to bury the U.S. political system; I have come to praise the Eve Online community.  CCP has created a virtual world in New Eden and the players have imported their ideas of how the world should work.  The most striking example is TEST's IT operation that has more stringent quality control checks and operating procedures than many real world companies.  The U.S. presidential debates are showing this dedication to making New Eden a better world than meatspace extends to the internet radio and podcasting community.

At the risk of slighting someone, I'd like to point out three examples of people I think have proven over the course of their Eve careers that they would do a better job of moderating a real life debate than what we've seen so far in the U.S. presidential and vice-presidential debates.  The first is the long time Eve Radio veteran Funky Bacon.  He helped lure me into Eve with the professionalism he displayed in his coverage of the Band of Brothers takedown which included handling both BoB's Dianabolic and The Mittani on his show at the same time.  He further showed his capability towards impartiality when Massively.com's Brendan Drain appeared on his show with The Mittani.  Do I think Funky Bacon would have done a better job of moderating a town-hall style debate than Candy Crowly?  Hell yeah!  He also would have done a better job than vice-presidential debate host Martha Raddatz and probably than Jim Lehrer.

The second figure is current Eve Radio rock DJ and Voices from the Void host Arydanika.  During the past CSM election cycle she hosted several two and three person debates and while she has a more light-hearted tone than Funky Bacon I think she would definitely have done a better job than Candy Crowly last night.

Last but certainly not least is the master of the marathon podcast Jade.  With two CSM election cycles under his belt, the Lost in Eve podcast sets the standard for CSM debates.  Jade and his co-hosts do what I think real world journalists should do; get the facts from the candidates and then perform the analysis afterwards.

Am I idealizing the jobs not only these three but the entire Eve podcasting and radio community do?  Perhaps.  But I still maintain the hobbyists who are learning on the job still do a better job than the trained professionals.  I've made that argument about the mainstream gaming media in the past.  Now I think we have proof that the Eve community does a better job than the mainstream media as well.

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

The Digital Dozen: 16 October 2012

The rankings of the top twelve MMORPGs as determined by the players of the Xfire community from play on Sunday, 14 October 2012.  For more details about the methodology, click here.  Historical data can be found here.


Rank Prev Week Game ScoreHours Played +/- %
11World of Warcraft 50.9 55,396-8.0
22Guild Wars 227.329,700-16.6
33Star Wars: The Old Republic4.14,499+1.6
44Aion3.13,375-7.7
55Eve Online2.83,055-8.8
66Metin 22.62,822-7.4
77Lord of the Rings Online2.32,522+13.1
88APB: Reloaded1.92,057+10.6
910Need For Speed World1.41,572+5.2
109Planetside 2 (Beta)1.31,466-8.7
1111Star Trek Online1.11,170-10.4
1212Vindictus1.11,159-3.3
 
Total MMORPG hours played Sunday: 133,484
 
Sunday saw the Xfire community spend 7.8% less time playing MMORPGs than the week before.   Percentage-wise the big gainers for the week were Lord of the Rings Online (+13.1%) and APB:Reloaded (+10.6%) while the game seeing the biggest decline was Guild Wars 2 (-16.6%).

Falling Faster Than Felix - For the fifth week in a row the time the Xfire community has spent playing Guild Wars 2 has declined by more than 12.5%.  Since 2 September the number of hours played has fallen by 68%.  Has anyone started asking if GW2 is dying?  I won't, but I am not willing to predict where the game will bottom out.

Prelude To Free-To-Play - I keep wondering when Star Wars: The Old Republic will finally reach bottom.  With Game Update 1.5 now on the public test server I think players will soon be able to at least begin playing for free soon.  I had heard that would occur in November but I could not find a link to confirm the date.  Despite its nearly year-long fall, SW:TOR is still the third ranked game and I wonder if the game will remain more popular than Aion, at least among Xfire members.

Monday, October 15, 2012

CCP Sreegs Unleashed 2.0: In His Own Words

At the end of February this year CCP Sreegs and Team Security launched an offensive against botters and those engaged in the illicit RMT trade.  They even busted the illicit RMT operation of the creator of the Questor mission bot.

At Eve Vegas on 6 October CCP Stillman announced the next phase of Team Security's anti-RMT strategy; making the practice of botting and ISK selling socially unacceptable amongst the player base.  For those who have not yet seen or heard CCP Stillman's presentation, I have transcribed the section following the video of CCP blowing up the POSes of corporations caught engaging in the illicit RMT trade.
"The point of this video is that the social acceptance of botting/RMT botting RMT is going to come to a stop.  We said at Fanfest this year that we were going to eventually look into it and we feel that we are at a point where we've dealt with the low-hanging fruit we can do in terms of detection of botting. 

"The next big issue is really the alliance acceptance of this kind of bad behavior.  So this was the first that we took a bunch of corporations we banned; we're going to wipe the POSes and everything they have.  And what we are going to end up doing coming up is that we're going to make sure that if an alliance is hosting botting/RMT botting RMT they're not going to continue doing that. We're going to make sure that they feel the pain.  But we don't want this going on.  We don't want it to be an alliance (unintelligable). It's crazy what's going to happen. And we're not going to do anything drastic or anything, really, like an Unholy Rage against alliances. 

"We're going to adopt the same philosophy as we do with our botting/anti-botting work is that we are going to go for a slow burn.  We're going to measure every step we take.  We're going to see what impact it has.  We're not going to kill the whole alliance overnight, like, 'Hey guys, bad luck,' at least not initially.  We're going to make sure that everybody understands what's going on. 

"If you're doing this it is not going to be a fun time for you.  And we're going to see where it takes us because its one of the big elephants in the room right now.  We're going to address that and its going to happen over the next couple of months.  So, questions?" [emphasis mine]

Despite CCP Stillman's use of the term "botting/RMT", CCP Sreegs does not plan on holding alliances responsible for the activities of those who do not engage in ISK selling.  I spent last week exchanging emails with CCP Sreegs asking questions about what Team Security intends to do as he was concerned that the coverage of Eve Vegas did not accurately portray his strategy.  What resulted was a rather lengthy interview. 

UPDATE 27 January 2013 - The phrase "botting/RMT" was transcribed incorrectly.  The phase was "botting RMT" to distinguish botting that is sold for real-life cash vs. botting that is just done for in-game advantage.  Most of the confusion surrounded the use of this phrase and people, including myself, not interpreting the phrase correctly.