Thursday, April 24, 2014

Please Let CCP Make The Case

Just a quick note, because another CSM member has made me discard my original thought on what to write for today's post.  Today's culprit is mynnna.  Yesterday he wrote a blog post responding to the complaints of high sec industrialists threatening to quit EVE if the changes so far stated in the first 2 of an ultimate 6 dev blogs take place.  The straw man he demolishes is the claim that the industry changes will totally destroy high sec industry and force industrialists to move to null sec to survive.  Yes, straw man.

I think that the fear among high sec industrialists is that the advantages null sec will receive are so great that industrialists based in null sec will take over the most lucrative markets in high sec, namely Jita.  Why would they think that?  Let's review.

First, the summer changes will make the cost of minerals for null sec industrialists much cheaper than for those based in high.  In null sec, stations will have a maximum reprocessing rate of 86.8% while the best high sec POS will only offer 75.3%.  That means a null sec industrialist will receive 15.3% more minerals than a high sec industrialist from buying the same chunk of compressed ore in Jita.  A significant cost savings, right?  Maybe even enough to cover the transportation costs from Jita to null sec with room to spare.

Add to that the additional taxes that high sec industrialists will have to pay over those in null sec.  How much of a difference?  Pretty big, although not so much for those industrialists who are successful in getting a POS installed in the moon rush that will occur in the beginning of the summer expansion.  We won't know until we actually start playing the summer expansion and have real data, but is a doubled tax rate (4% in null vs. 8% in high) really unreasonable to expect, especially in The Forge?  I'm pretty sure that the high sec industrialists are screaming that they will have to pay 14% in taxes, but those who set up POS for production are probably in much better shape, perhaps even on-par will those in null.  Probably not, since the POS owners will now need to pay taxes when operating their own POS.

Even with what we know, which admittedly is at a high level and lacks details, those seem like large advantages for null sec industrialists.  But I always assumed that the cost of moving product from null to Jita is cost prohibitive.  After reading mynnna's post, I'm not so sure now.
"Moving the finished products for all the subcap hulls above is 283,018,000m3. That’s 717 trips per day in a max skill Rhea, roughly one every two minutes, all day, every day. If your typical trip is two jumps as mine is, that’s 30k isotopes per round trip, about 21.5m units per day or roughly a quarter of what was mined around this time in 2011 assuming nothing but Rheas… of course, that quantity was before CCP nuked ice in highsec and changed the mechanics. 21.5b isk a day of fuel, though considering the product being moved is at least 600 billion isk in value, that’s not really all that much." [emphasis mine]
Thanks, mynnna, for providing a 3.6% transportation cost for moving sub-cap hulls from GSF-held regions to Jita.  I'm assuming that moving other items, like T2 modules, will have similar, if not lower costs, if those items have a greater ISK/cubic meter cost.  But that 3.6% added transportation cost will help people unfamiliar with jump freighter costs make a more informed analysis of the situation.  The transportation capacity available is a different story, one I can't address.  But I bet that some of the high sec industrialists involved do know.  If the capacity currently exists to move all of the goods from Jita to null, then the capacity already exists to move the traffic in the opposite direction.

Having demolished his straw man, mynnna's conclusion contains these interesting sentences.
"On a non-official level, industrialists willing to build in nullsec find their profit margins considerably larger. Some who consider themselves market savvy might even try to use that to control their niche in the market. Some may even succeed, especially in particularly small niches. On the other hand, attempts to take down & control markets will be opposed by traders in Empire, who will see the undercut markets as a profit center."
Basically, mynnna is conceding that the fears of some high sec industrialists in some sections of the market are legitimate.  Great.  As much as I would like to view all the hysteria as people afraid of change, mynnna just told me I can't.  Also, I get the impression that while the serious trader or industrialist can profit off of the situation, those who are more casual or just not as good at industry will get hurt this summer.  I guess those people are justified in yelling and complaining also.  And I can't tell anyone, "wait for the dev blogs," either, because mynnna ended with this note:
"Note: This post is written in the full knowledge of every devblog yet to be posted. None of them change a damn thing I wrote here. "
Basically, mynnna told all of the people complaining they don't have to wait for the dev blogs either.

At this point, I really wish that all the CSM members would take this opportunity to stay quiet on the industry changes, because they continue to feed the high sec industrialists paranoia about the upcoming industry changes.  The more I read Ripard and mynnna, the more I believe people freaking out about the changes aren't so paranoid after all.  We have four more dev blogs due out, plus the Fanfest presentations at the end of next week.  Please, just let CCP make the case.  That goes for those complaining AND members of the Council of Stellar Management.

43 comments:

  1. Maybe this has already been answered, but maybe not. I haven't been able to slog through all the forum threads.

    The (in)famous line from the last dev blog says, “Expect costs ranging from 0% to 14% of the base item being produced for the most extreme case.”

    Everyone is focused on the fact that part of the cost to start a manufacturing job will be a function of the number of jobs installed in that station/system. Got it.

    But what is this “base item” that Ytterbium mentions? Obviously, that has to be an ISK value of some sort. Is it the aggregate cost of raw material/component input? Or is he saying that the cost of installing a job will also be a function of the base price of the item? Currently, the client calculates a “regional average” market price, which I think is the mean of the aggregate buy and sell order prices in that region (not sure if it's weighted at all). Is that the “base item” that he’s talking about?

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    1. It will be based on the sell price, not the raw material cost. I also asked for specific clarification from a dev for that and was met with stony silence. I picked up that it was based on sell price based on comments by Ripard and the goons in their various comments.

      And I am betting CCP will use the same evaluation tool as the one that is currently used to value the contents of your hangars.

      So costs to build a Nestor just went up 200 million, based on a 1.5 billion valuation. I just cooked 5 Republic Fleet Warp Disruptors. The game mechanic right now values them at 131M each, though I can't sell them for that much (prices dropping, and the tool lags in time).

      At the NPC station last night my mfg slot cost for a 39 minute job was 1219 ISK. 5 weeks from now, that mfg slot cost will be 91.7 million, in a relatively busy station, an increase of over 75,000 times.

      And Noisy, you should read one of the smug responses from Aryth to me in the dev blog. He flaty states that goons fully expect subs to go down in the short term, in exchange for "long term game viability", and goons will now be implementing plans to increase "null sec density" they drew up years ago. He also goes on to say that yup, there will be markets that high sec will not be able to compete in.

      And this, all this, is BEFORE we even see the nerfs planned for T2 invention for high sec in the fall/winter.

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    2. @Dins: Just to be clear: you’re saying “base item” refers to the current regional market average price/value that the server calculates? You've confirmed this? Can anyone else confirm?

      If so, then forget all the paranoia: this is a recipe for broken markets. It means that if the market average price of a given item suddenly spikes, then the cost to install a manufacturing job for that item will spike along with it. If cost is tied directly to price, then a basic mechanism of market equilibrium will be gone, and there will be little to stop prices rising almost indefinitely. And if there are costed subcomponents in an end item, as there are in T2 items, they will have a multiplying effect on this problem.

      Not to mention that the “market average” price is often completely out of whack and can easily be thrown off by a few outlying buy/sell orders. And, as we saw with Mynnna’s faction warfare exploit a couple of years ago, that regional market average price is highly susceptible to manipulation.

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    3. @Chris H. Like I said, I tried to confirm with a dev, and got nothing but silence. But Jester stated flatly that all items in the game will jump in price, as much as 10%, The dev's explicitly state the manufacturing cost was based on the "base price". Price implies sell price. The term "manufacturing price" is not typically used.

      Now, I pray that I am wrong, but no dev or null sec cartel mouthpiece, who actually designed these changes, have corrected me, in many posts.

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    4. I've only ever seen "Base Price" refer to the mineral value of an item, never the selling price in EvE.

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  2. "OH GOD NULLSEC WILL TAKE OVER ALL PRODUCTION, HIGHSEC WILL DIE" versus "Some people building in null might try to corner some markets, and some might even succeed, though all will find traders to be an obstacle." Rather marked difference, if I do say so myself, primarily that people freaking out absolutely are paranoid after all.

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    1. When Mynnna calls you paranoid it's usually because you've noticed the knife he's trying to put in your back.

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    2. Not all production, just the high-value stuff. Besides, somebody has to buy Mynnna's surplus high end production inputs at usurious prices.

      Jeez - It's not like CFC can make money by extorting themselves. They need a large population of patsies to exploit for fun and profit.

      I'm sure Mynnna has our best interests in mind.=)

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    3. Lol - God knows Mynnna doesn't pay for his play. Needs all those highsec subscription fees. So keep the money coming all you carebears.

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    4. mynnna, nosy just blew a serious hole in your argument.

      "If the capacity currently exists to move all of the goods from Jita to null, then the capacity already exists to move the traffic in the opposite direction."

      Shouldn't you perhaps address that instead of complaining about the crazy paranoid people? There are ALWAYS crazy paranoid people. Complaining about them instead of you know, having a rational discussion makes you look silly.

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    5. how about another approach mynna? Like this:

      "I can appreciate the concerns of high-sec industrialists, but both the CSM and CCP think high-sec industrialists will continue to control the markets across empire space, because nullsec simply doesn't have enough industrialists willing to build in nullsec. That is true now, and will be true after the changes, too.

      What these changes do is give those who are willing to build in nullsec the ability to compete with Jita prices at the local level, so that alliance members will buy from their local industrialist instead of importing everything from Jita."

      ...is that so hard to say?

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    6. "...is that so hard to say?"

      Yes.

      His desire for the tears of lesser beings won't let him NOT twist the knife wherever possible.

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    7. Louis: this assumes, incorrectly, that all goods produced now move to nullsec. Though the logistics of it is the least of the arguments against the concept...those requirements are actually surprisingly small.

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    8. Of course there is consumption of goods in highsec, no one is denying that. But destruction in null is significant and industry is currently deficient, ergo significant trade and shipments occurs. I will re-examine the rest of your argument later, I hope that it is more substantive.

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  3. "The more I read Ripard and mynnna, the more I believe people freaking out about the changes aren't so paranoid after all."

    If this surprises you, you don't know anything about Mynna, Mittens or how they play the game. Honestly, are you paying any attention at all?

    Both are on records as calling for the reduction of highsec to a minimalist training area where little interesting play can occur. Without highsec, and with a robust nullsec industrial sector, CFC will have significant control over events in EVE and the in-game game economy. If you know this group, you know that in-game control of others is very attractive to them and central to their play style.

    At that point, it's possible they might be able to tank the game itself; and the ability to destroy a thing gives one ultimate control over it. At that point, CCP would be working for them.

    If you think the people unhappy with the changes are paranoid, you haven't been paying attention.

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    1. CFC already has a robust industrial sector, like all the other big entities in null. They just avoided building most of the things in null sec directly because it was easier/cheaper doing it in high sec. They either went to high sec to build stuff and send it back to null or buy it from someone else already building it in high sec.
      So, basically, they adapted and found solutions to a problem instead of just whining and doing nothing, all the while living in null sec, far from Jita, with all the logistic problems deriving from that, with increased costs and risks and further adapting to wardeccers and whatever else you have.
      All the while high sec industrialists would live in Perimeter, next door to Jita, build with no real risk or logistic problems to face, maybe even being in an NPC corp if they didn't need a POS and making tons of isks out of it.
      I don't think this is necessarily wrong, but I think that in addition to the risk/reward logic, in this case, also an effort/reward logic might show you that null sec deserved a buff, and high sec wasn't necessarily nerfed.

      And I don't even want to talk about the conspiracy theory you tried to build up, that, well, I don't want to touch it...

      About the Dinsdale style

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    2. Ha! You called Dinsdale. Which CFC alliance do you belong to?

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    3. @Gus - The buffs to nullsec amount to a highsec nerf in terms of relative performance. We'll be competing for customers with a bunch on nullsec freeriders who live in protected gated communities and are allowed magic minerals and refineries that give them something for nothing.

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    4. @first anon: I think everybody can name Dinsdale as he's kind of the king of conspiracy theories, a well deserved and defended title I think. Also, he talks about cartels, including not only CFC into the equation.

      @second anon: I understand your point, I do, but I personally think this change was needed. I can't really see why this change should be considered a bad thing, I actually think it hit the game incredibly late.
      Other than that, the protected gated communities are actually protected because someone (a hint, the same freeriders you named) are actively defending their communities. They're not relying on NPC protection of any sort. This, to me, means that somehow, even after the change, high sec will still give its citizens a little bit more something for a little less nothing.

      Maybe just a perception problem here, we're probably enjoying the game in a different way, but, again, if the risk/reward logic has always been the foundation of EVE, you can't really state this is just bad. Or not?

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    5. @Gus - I think Dinsdale is part of the Goon propaganda machine. Create a king of conspiracy theories then associate your critics with him when you're caught with your hand in the cookie jar.

      Null is protected by Titans and Super Carriers. Null cannot be taken without Titans and Super Carriers. Titans and Super Carriers can only be build in Null and the builder's coalition has first option on their purchase. Most Titans and Super Carriers never leave the builder's coalition. Tell you what - you give up on the Titan monopoly, and then we can talk. In the mean-time, stop telling me how deserving you are.

      The amount of effort GI fleetbears spent defending the CFC space these days is pretty much nada and most CFC members joined after grunt fleet bears stopped making a difference. Freeriders. PVPers in lowsec see more real action in a week than nullsec freeriders do in a year. Hell, undocking in Jita is more dangerous than life in nullsec.

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    6. So you're basically saying that any alliance with Titans and Supers would be able to run an empire in null sec no matter what? Even if "sponsored" by the big blocks, do you really think it takes no effort at all running a null sec alliance or just being part of a null sec alliance? There's quite a few of them that have proven you wrong about this, if this is really what you think. And don't tell me you just need a handfull of people doing all the work. When this happens it's exactly when a null sec alliance vanishes.
      And please, tell me, what the hell would you really want to do with a titan in high sec? Do you really think this mechanic should be changed?
      Jita scares me, too, but I can't think of any other place in high sec with the same level of destruction, so please, don't mention Jita pretending it to be the high sec norm, it isn't.

      About Dinsdale being a goon, are you sure you're not Dinsdale writing as anon?

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    7. I find it sadly humorous that all the things I predicted about null sec laying waste to high sec are happening, yet I am some kind of conspiracy nut. Yes, this is collusion between CCP and the cartels to destroy high sec, but by bit. Clearly, at the very least, CCP dev's were hugely influenced by the CSM, dominated by the cartels, when mulling over these design changes.

      You seriously don't think that ISK / hour from missions and incursions is not in their crosshairs as well, even with the huge nerf mission runners juts took with the loot loss.

      Last winter's release was called Rubicon for a reason. The lead design group within CCP has convinced themselves, or was convinced by vested interests, that the only long term survival of the game was through the whole damn thing being "player-run", which is the same as cartel run.

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    8. @Mad Gus

      No. Absolutes like 'any alliance' and 'no matter what' are your words, not mine. Don't build straw arguments I'm not making.

      I'm saying null sec can't be taken without Titans and Supers and null sec controls their production. Don't sit behind that monopoly and talk about how much you deserve the best of the best. If it wasn't for thaty you guys might have a real fight on your hands.

      Didn't say a word about building Titans and Supers in high sec. Said that until someone besides the owners of nullsec can build Titans and Supers, the game is pretty much fixed in their favor.

      Of course, you could give me a special Titan/Super-killer missile that could be fired from a conventional ship. But I doubt you're up for that.

      Nerfs aren't for you special snowflakes.

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    9. @Gus

      "Risk" and "effort" are two very different things. Last time I checked, the EVE mantra was not "effort vs. reward."

      Delete
  4. "For myself, I cannot continue to support a game in which my monthly subscription dollars are used to benefit a small subset of the EVE player base, both financially and in terms of quality of play, to the detriment of all others."

    This

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    1. Exactly. High sec players who actually pay for their subscriptions with real money are the ones who run this game. I got tired of reading Mynnna's smug bullshit a long time ago. If you disagree with these pricks the best thing you can do to get CCP's attention is to vote with your wallet and cancel your accounts.

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    2. I don't think we can frighten CCP with ragequit threats, but they have to be nervous about the flat sub rate. Some numbers must have convinced them that they can afford a hisec nerf...or perhaps other devblogs will tell us of other changes that compensate.

      You'd think Icelanders would learn from the US economy, and not bet on inequality's sorting itself out. A country that jailed its banksters ought to know better than to run a game for the benefit of a few very wealthy characters.

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  5. While I hate Mynnna like the plague, I found the same result. Highsec industry isn't in danger, because both mineral production and item consumption is local. To compete with that, you'd have to haul the minerals to nullsec, do the production and haul the products back to Jita. That's lot of hauling, lot of fuel and every jump is a risk of becoming someone's kill report.

    What will happen is that nullsec consumption will find local producers. Currently a nullsec empire buys everything in Jita and ships it out. Now they will buy compressed minerals and produce ships, ammo and maybe even T2 modules locally.

    We saw the destruction-production graphs: 1T/day destruction, 3T/day production. If we assume that all destruction is in nullsec, they will have 1T/day production in null to replace it, leaving 2T/day in highsec.

    Final note: mining Heidbergit is 50% better income than mining in highsec. 50>>14. Yet if you can't drop a Catalyst in highsec without hitting a Retriever.

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    1. His entire column is just more smug bullshit. The guy is an engineer per his podcast interviews and he comes off as just that. He assumes everyone is as dumb as he is. Every engineer is an expert on everything if you haven't noticed.

      All industry doesn't have to move to null sec, just enough has to move there to destroy profit margins on a given item to have an impact. And you can bet that production of the most mineral intensive, profitable and easily transportable (IE small when packaged) items will be moved to null sec and taken over by the large alliances the day after the patch goes live.

      Will it destroy high sec industry? Hardly. But it will destroy markets for specific items. And more importantly it will fill the pockets of Mynnna and his shitbag friends.

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    2. @Anon....example:

      Damage Control II's:
      Fit 50,000 in an JF. At say, current prices of 750K-800 K each, that is 35-40 billion worth of product, with a current profit margin of about 100%. DC II's materials are heavily weighted towards T2 intermediate materials (Oscillator Capacitor Unit, Plasma Pulse Generator, Quantum Micro Processor, and PI products.)

      Average traffic in Jita is about 6000-7000, though some speculators are driving huge volumes and the price up last couple days. Amarr runs about 3000. So 50,000 DCII's would supply the ENTIRE Jita and Amarr markets for 5 days.

      So now we have some null sec industrial group that decides to wipe out all high sec DCII manufacturers. Let's see:

      Cheaper T2 intermediate parts, since null sec controls the raw material supply.
      Cheaper PI products, since null sec gets way better PI production.
      Cheaper manufacturing slots.
      Cheaper copying slots.
      We can only expect cheaper invention costs by winter.

      Only thing that null sec has to deal with is JF fuel, and how much is that compared to a 40 billion ISK value load? And on the way back, the JF is loaded with compressed ore, since that is all that high sec can provide null sec now.

      When I had my POS up, I focused on DCII's and nano II's. Did quite nicely, and pumped out hundreds a day, and that was with 4 dedicated chars, one POS. The bottleneck was copying , of course, and the fact that trying to sell more than a couple hundred a day was a brute.

      But now, presto, copying will no longer be the bottleneck, and null will be able to produce items at about 30% lower cost than high sec. Just how long will it take null sec to completely control the DCII market?



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    3. @Anon932

      The problem with making blanket insults like that is that you risk alienating those who may otherwise support your position.

      Delete
  6. I guess I don't understand what the problem is with nullsec having the corner on some things. I mean, it already does, right? You can't build supercaps anywhere else.

    I could see it being a problem if nullsec is able to corner all of the most profitable markets. That would fit in the themepark view of EVE that Jester unveiled recently, at least.

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  7. I can let CCP make their case at the same time as I unsub my industry accounts, its not an either/or proposition. If it turns out that they don't totally fuck my casual playstyle then I can always resub at a later date.

    In the mean time, why should I give CCP 50 bucks a month to watch them give my style of play that I've been building for 9 years the finger? There are much better uses for 50 bucks a month than to "trust CCP".

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    1. It is one thing to let the stupid fucks on the CSM and CCP teams slap you in the face. It is another thing entirely to keep paying for it.

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  8. I've been thinking more about your very good point about the cargo capacity already existing, and transport costs.

    High sec is where things are built (at the moment) and null where things are destroyed. Stuff is built in high sec, shipped (at fairly low cost) to Jita, where it it purchased and shipped (at higher costs) to null, where it is used and destroyed.

    Now if you have a significant null industry, why would you ship stuff to jita only to ship it back to null? It makes no sense. A central market hub will no longer be so crucial. What will happen is the rise of semi-stable Null trading hubs - nothing like Jita of course, but perhaps as big as say, Hek.

    The difference between these hubs will be stability (due to war) and access. Right now anyone can go to Jita, or Rens or whatever. However, the PL trade hub won't be accessible by SOLAR members (and vice versa). The only reason Jita will persist - and it will be a shadow of its former self - is as a central "trade regulator" - if DCII are 400 K in the SOLAR hub and 800 K in the PL hub, there will be a movement of goods, and having a central market hub will still facilitate this type of trade.

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    1. But who are they going to let dock?

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    2. Only the coalition and renters I imagine. This will limit their size... But they could become substantial if they are in uncontested territory. I believe that the goon capital is already in the top 10 hubs. Could that one rival Hek? It very could be.

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    3. Jita will continue to exist because there are so many variables that contribute to its being the hub that it is. You can get [i]anything[/i] there.

      My reading of the tea leaves says that nullsec will produce for its own relatively immediate needs. Nullsec trade hubs, such as they are, already exist. They will become better in all likelihood. But I don't see anything toppling Jita.

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  9. Adapt & evolve people.Has anyone considered the possibility of mineral price rises equaling the losses in refining ? Any large increase in traffic between 0.0 & highsec would be accompanied by a rise in freighter ganking eh ? Adapt & evolve people.

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  10. These changes will also make POS production and research more popular.
    And after seeing that interface, people will be screaming even more for pos changes.

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