I think that the fear among high sec industrialists is that the advantages null sec will receive are so great that industrialists based in null sec will take over the most lucrative markets in high sec, namely Jita. Why would they think that? Let's review.
First, the summer changes will make the cost of minerals for null sec industrialists much cheaper than for those based in high. In null sec, stations will have a maximum reprocessing rate of 86.8% while the best high sec POS will only offer 75.3%. That means a null sec industrialist will receive 15.3% more minerals than a high sec industrialist from buying the same chunk of compressed ore in Jita. A significant cost savings, right? Maybe even enough to cover the transportation costs from Jita to null sec with room to spare.
Add to that the additional taxes that high sec industrialists will have to pay over those in null sec. How much of a difference? Pretty big, although not so much for those industrialists who are successful in getting a POS installed in the moon rush that will occur in the beginning of the summer expansion. We won't know until we actually start playing the summer expansion and have real data, but is a doubled tax rate (4% in null vs. 8% in high) really unreasonable to expect, especially in The Forge? I'm pretty sure that the high sec industrialists are screaming that they will have to pay 14% in taxes, but those who set up POS for production are probably in much better shape, perhaps even on-par will those in null. Probably not, since the POS owners will now need to pay taxes when operating their own POS.
Even with what we know, which admittedly is at a high level and lacks details, those seem like large advantages for null sec industrialists. But I always assumed that the cost of moving product from null to Jita is cost prohibitive. After reading mynnna's post, I'm not so sure now.
"Moving the finished products for all the subcap hulls above is 283,018,000m3. That’s 717 trips per day in a max skill Rhea, roughly one every two minutes, all day, every day. If your typical trip is two jumps as mine is, that’s 30k isotopes per round trip, about 21.5m units per day or roughly a quarter of what was mined around this time in 2011 assuming nothing but Rheas… of course, that quantity was before CCP nuked ice in highsec and changed the mechanics. 21.5b isk a day of fuel, though considering the product being moved is at least 600 billion isk in value, that’s not really all that much." [emphasis mine]Thanks, mynnna, for providing a 3.6% transportation cost for moving sub-cap hulls from GSF-held regions to Jita. I'm assuming that moving other items, like T2 modules, will have similar, if not lower costs, if those items have a greater ISK/cubic meter cost. But that 3.6% added transportation cost will help people unfamiliar with jump freighter costs make a more informed analysis of the situation. The transportation capacity available is a different story, one I can't address. But I bet that some of the high sec industrialists involved do know. If the capacity currently exists to move all of the goods from Jita to null, then the capacity already exists to move the traffic in the opposite direction.
Having demolished his straw man, mynnna's conclusion contains these interesting sentences.
"On a non-official level, industrialists willing to build in nullsec find their profit margins considerably larger. Some who consider themselves market savvy might even try to use that to control their niche in the market. Some may even succeed, especially in particularly small niches. On the other hand, attempts to take down & control markets will be opposed by traders in Empire, who will see the undercut markets as a profit center."Basically, mynnna is conceding that the fears of some high sec industrialists in some sections of the market are legitimate. Great. As much as I would like to view all the hysteria as people afraid of change, mynnna just told me I can't. Also, I get the impression that while the serious trader or industrialist can profit off of the situation, those who are more casual or just not as good at industry will get hurt this summer. I guess those people are justified in yelling and complaining also. And I can't tell anyone, "wait for the dev blogs," either, because mynnna ended with this note:
"Note: This post is written in the full knowledge of every devblog yet to be posted. None of them change a damn thing I wrote here. "Basically, mynnna told all of the people complaining they don't have to wait for the dev blogs either.
At this point, I really wish that all the CSM members would take this opportunity to stay quiet on the industry changes, because they continue to feed the high sec industrialists paranoia about the upcoming industry changes. The more I read Ripard and mynnna, the more I believe people freaking out about the changes aren't so paranoid after all. We have four more dev blogs due out, plus the Fanfest presentations at the end of next week. Please, just let CCP make the case. That goes for those complaining AND members of the Council of Stellar Management.