Friday, May 17, 2019

Analyzing The CSM 13 Election Round By Round

As someone who has analyzed the single transferable voting (STV) system used in EVE Online's elections to determine the members of the Council of Stellar Management since its institution in 2013, the discussion of the complicated voting system is sometimes exasperating. Last year, I wrote a post with an example of how the STV works. In an effort to decrease my readership, this year, I'll go one step further. I'll give an analysis of last year's election which resulted in the election of the "GSM", so nicknamed for the prevalence of members of The Imperium on the council.


Before going into a round-by-round breakdown, I need to address three important points. No discussion of the election for CSM 13 is complete without at least a mention of Creecher Viprio.

Creecher, at the time the capital director of Test Alliance Please Ignore, was a vociferous proponent of shield-tanked supercapital-class ships. Members of Pandemic Legion, an alliance heavily invested in armor-tanked supercapitals, moved to block Creecher's almost assured spot on the CSM, from which he could argue for improvements in shield capital and supercapital ships. So members of Pandemic Legion did a little digging and found logs on Pastebin showing Creecher using racial epithats in a private chat in-game, a violation of EVE Online's EULA and Terms of Service. Since the conversation occurred using CCP's communication channels, CCP could verify that the logs were not doctored and Creecher was removed from the voting.

The removal of Creecher occurred during the 7-day voting period, meaning that any vote for him was removed by the algorithm. Running the Python script with Creecher's votes included showed that he would have won a seat, with The Judge missing reelection to his 3rd term.

The second point involves the vaunted Goonswarm/Imperium ballot. The official ballot put out by Goonswarm Federation is the single most powerful force in CSM voting, and the 2018 election continued the trend. The turnout I was able to track in the voting file rose from 4273 ballots cast that contained some combination of the original six candidate slate in 2017 to 6564 ballots that had some combination of the 10 official candidates in 2018. To put the number into perspective, the official Imperium ballot made up 22.6% of all ballots cast in the CSM 13 election. Contrast that with the 22.3% of all ballots that mentioned Guardians of the Galaxy leader Sort Dragon, who won his fourth term this year.

The above figures were ballots with all 10 ballot spots filled out. For this analysis, I consider voters who filled out the first four spots as directed as "official", as the trickle of votes ended with The Judge, the fourth candidate on the official ballot. I counted 4988 ballots, or 17.1% of the total vote, listed Aryth, Merkelchen, Innominate, and The Judge as the first four choices.

The final item of note is when a candidate wins a seat. Officially, that occured when a candidate reached the quota. In the case of the CSM 13 election, that was 9.09% of the vote. The starting quota was 2657 votes, with the number eventually falling to 2446 in the final round of calculations. But as the final candidate won without meeting quota, the de facto amount of votes was one more than the last candidate eliminated received. In the case of the CSM 13 election, that figure was 1662. I will note when candidates pass that figure in the analysis.

Round 1
Quota: 2657
Candidate eliminated: ZepWunderbar (18 votes)

Looking at the initial vote totals before the algorithm ran showed that four candidates, Aryth, Sort Dragon, Jin'taan, and Brisc Rubal, were assured spots, with Aryth and Sort Dragon exceeding the quota of 2657 votes. The redistribution of Aryth's excess votes resulted in 3337.7 votes, including 2993.2 votes from those following the official Goon/Imperium ballot, flowing to Merkelchen. The carryover from Aryth resulted in Merkelchen winning a seat, and the overflow from Merkelchen then flowed to other candidates. Innominate, the candidate listed third on the official Goon/Imperium ballot, then received 1153.6 votes, with 979.2 of those votes coming from those who voted the way they were instructed.

The other significant null sec bloc vote coalesced around the leader of the Guardians of the Galaxy coalition, Sort Dragon. The distribution of the excess votes was not as focused as The Imperium ballot, with most of the excess split between Killah Bee (456.4 votes), Afropty (238.7 votes), and Damian Blackie (228.1 votes).

The election results were basically set at the end of the first round. The top 12 vote-getters were:

  • Aryth (elected)
  • Sort Dragon (elected)
  • Merkelchen (elected)
  • Jin'taan (2430)
  • Innominate (2156)
  • Brisc Rubal (2058)
  • Killah Bee (1670)
  • Steve Ronuken (1572)
  • Suitonia (1307)
  • The Judge (1178)
    ----------------------
  • ExookiZ (1099)
  • Tikktokk Tokkzikk (955)
At this point, I should also note that 7 of the 10 positions on the Council of Stellar Management had been filled. Three candidates had reached the quota threshold for victory, while four others (Jin'taan, Innominate, Brisc Rubal, and Killah Bee) had exceeded the 1661 votes Tikktokk Tokkzikk would have at the end of the last round of the election simulation.

Round 2:
Quota: 2657 (no change)
Candidate eliminated: Cwittofur Cesaille (29 votes)

Round 3: 

Quota: 2657 (no change)
Candidate eliminated: Kalen Tsero (49 votes)

Round 4:
Quota: 2656 (-1 from previous round, -1 from beginning quota)
Candidate eliminated: Solar Taranogas (56 votes)

Round 5:
Quota: 2656 (no change from previous round, -1 from beginning quota)
Candidate eliminated: Parobro (58 votes)

Round 6:
Quota: 2655 (-1 from previous round, -2 from beginning quota)
Candidate eliminated: Cacique Yuhasz (63 votes)

Round 7:
Quota: 2654 (-1 from previous round, -3 from beginning quota)
Candidate eliminated: Vincent Eneticum (66 votes)

Round 8:
Quota: 2654 (no change from previous round, -3 from beginning quota)
Candidate eliminated: The Ludocrat (76 votes)

Round 9:
Quota: 2653 (-1 from previous round, -4 from beginning quota)
Candidate eliminated: Kali Omega (77 votes)

Round 10:
Quota: 2653 (no change from previous round, -4 from beginning quota)
Candidate eliminated: Eurzadahn (91 votes)

Round 11:
Quota: 2651 (-2 from previous round, -6 from beginning quota)
Candidate eliminated: Claevyan (92 votes)

Round 12:
Quota: 2651 (no change from previous round, -6 from beginning quota)
Candidate eliminated: Chainsaw Plankton (102 votes)

Round 13:
Quota: 2650 (-1 from previous round, -7 from beginning quota)
Candidate eliminated: Syncopee Farnsworth (115 votes)

Round 14:
Quota: 2649 (-1 from previous round, -8 from beginning quota)
Candidate eliminated: Saint Michaels Soul (126 votes)

Round 15:
Quota: 2648 (-1 from previous round, -9 from beginning quota)
Candidate eliminated: Razorblade92 (134 votes)

In the first significant development since the first round, Steve Ronuken secured the 8th spot on CSM 13 with 1665 votes at the end of the round. Steve's number of first place votes grew from an initial tally of 1546 to 1636 at the beginning of the round. As candidates were eliminated, the algorithm discarded the losing candidates and Steve picked up 90 votes in that manner. In addition, in round 15, Steve secured an additional 29 votes from candidates who had reached the quota.

Round 16:
Quota: 2644 (-4 from previous round, -13 from beginning quota)
Candidate eliminated: Carbon Alabel (156 votes)

Round 17:
Quota: 2643 (-1 from previous round, -14 from beginning quota)
Candidate eliminated: Malakai Asamov (180 votes)

Round 18:
Quota: 2643 (no change from previous round, -14 from beginning quota)
Candidate eliminated: Xenuria (186 votes)

Round 19:
Quota: 2641 (-2 from previous round, -16 from beginning quota)
Candidate eliminated: aspecialpinecone (196 votes)

In rounds 15-18, Steve Ronuken picked up an additional 27 first place votes. By doing so, Steve secured enough votes (1663) to secure a spot on CSM 13 without assistance from any trickle-down votes from the null sec bloc votes. Also, during the first 18 rounds, none of the trickle-down votes Steve received kept him from being eliminated.

Round 20:
Quota: 2636 (-5 from previous round, -21 from beginning quota)
Candidate eliminated: commander aze (210 votes)

Round 21:
Quota: 2635 (-1 from previous round, -22 from beginning quota)
Candidate eliminated: Raphendyr Nardieu (245 votes)

Round 22:
Quota: 2632 (-3 from previous round, -25 from beginning quota)
Candidate eliminated: Jaha Preynar (256 votes)

Round 23:
Quota: 2628 (-4 from previous round, -29 from beginning quota)
Candidate eliminated: Bei ArtJay (268 votes)

In the round, Jin'taan became the fourth candidate to reach quota. In the first 22 rounds, Jin'taan picked up 188 votes, raising his total from 2363 to 2551. The excess votes received from Aryth, Merkelchen, and Sort Dragon put him over the top.

Round 24:
Quota: 2625 (-3 from previous round, -32 from beginning quota)
Candidate eliminated: Winter duFallen (304 votes)

Round 25:
Quota: 2618 (-7 from previous round, -39 from beginning quota)
Candidate eliminated: Damian Blackie (339 votes)

Round 26:
Quota: 2616 (-2 from previous round, -41 from beginning quota)
Candidate eliminated: Arielle en Distel (345 votes)

Round 27:
Quota: 2611 (-5 from previous round, -46 from beginning quota)
Candidate eliminated: Afropty (460 votes)

Round 28:
Quota: 2609 (-2 from previous round, -48 from beginning quota)
Candidate eliminated: Sullen Decimus (463 votes)

Round 29:
Quota: 2604 (-5 from previous round, -53 from beginning quota)
Candidate eliminated: Mawderator (530 votes)

The elimination of Sullen Decimus in round 28 gave Jin'taan 28 votes, enough first place votes to reach quota on his own. This meant that when the excess vote was redistributed from Aryth, Sort Dragon, and Merkelchen, the algorithm skipped Jin'taan on people's ballots and went to the next candidate.

The biggest beneficiary of the elimination of Sullen was the Goon/Imperium bloc vote. The top four candidates received a total of 270 first place votes once the redistribution was performed (Aryth 96, Merkelchen 136, Innominate 6, The Judge 32). The results at the end of the round saw Innominate gain 229 votes to 2593, just 11 votes short of quota. The Judge also saw his vote total climb from 1315 at the end of round 28 to 1364.

Round 30:
Quota: 2598 (-6 from previous round, -59 from beginning quota)
Candidate eliminated: Otto Bismarck (561 votes)

Round 30 is the round when the vote from the official Goon/Imperium ballot finally reached the candidate in the fourth position on their ballot, The Judge. In order for the trickle to reach The Judge, the following occurred between rounds 1 and 29:
  • Aryth picked up 149 first place votes
  • Merkelchen picked up 195 first place votes
  • Innominate picked up 43 first place votes
  • The quota decreased by 59

In round 30, 10 of The Judge's 1409 votes were directly attributable to those voting the official Goon/Imperium ballot.

Round 31:
Quota: 2592 (-6 from previous round, -65 from beginning quota)
Candidate eliminated: bastet 666 (561 votes)

Suitonia secured the 9th seat on CSM 13, surpassing the de facto requirement of 1662 votes to win. During the course of the first 30 rounds, he increased his number of first place votes by 24.6%, from 1286 to 1602. The distribution of excess votes left Suitonia with 1697 votes at the end of the round.

Killah Bee became the 6th candidate to reach the quota, benefitting from a trickle vote of 1124 from Sort Dragon. Between rounds 1 and 30, the following occurred for Killah reaching quota possible:
  • Sort Dragon picked up 238 first place votes
  • Killah Bee picked up 266 first place votes
  • The quota decreased by 65

Bastet 666, from Legion of xXDEATHXx, was the last Russian k-space candidate left in the election.

Round 32:
Quota: 2560 (-32 from previous round, -97 from beginning quota)
Candidate eliminated: Silver Suspiria (561 votes)

This round showed that the traditional divide between wormholers and null sec players extends into the Russian community. Tifida, from the Russian wormhole alliance Inner Hell, only receive 66 new first place votes from the elimination of bastet 666. The large drop in the quota was a result of 349 ballots for bastet 666's expiring.

Silver Suspiria, the executive officer of the Gallente Federation factional warfare alliance Federation Uprising, was the last candidate from factional warfare in the election.

Round 33:
Quota: 2542 (-18 from previous round, -115 from beginning quota)
Candidate eliminated: Lorelei Ierendi (694 votes)

As might be expected, the small gang expert Suitonia received 80 first-place votes from the elimination of Silver Suspiria, thus giving him enough first place votes to exceed the 1661 required to win a spot in the final round without having to rely on any trickle votes.

Lorelei Ierendi was the last of the high sec mission running/mining candidates left in the election.

Round 34:
Quota: 2526 (-16 from previous round, -131 from beginning quota)
Candidate eliminated: Tifida (754 votes)

Steve Ronuken became the 7th candidate to reach quota. In the first 33 rounds, he picked up 931 first place votes, with the final 49 votes coming via the trickle from Aryth, Merkelchen, and Sort Dragon.

The Judge finished the round with 1729 votes, exceeding the amount of 1661 votes Tikktokk Tokkzikk finished with, thus securing the final seat on CSM 13. For those tracking the effects of the official Goon/Imperium ballot, 131 of those votes came directly from the trickle-down effect from Aryth to Merkelchen to Innominate.

Tifida was the final Russian candidate remaining in the election, and the second-to-last remaining wormhole candidate.

Round 35:
Quota: 2483 (-43 from previous round, -174 from beginning quota)
Candidate eliminated: ExookiZ (1434 votes)

Brisc Rubal became the 8th candidate to reach quota. In the first 34 rounds, he picked up 297 additional first place votes, with excess votes from an array of candidates, along with a drastic drop in the quota over rounds 31-35 of 109.

The Judge, the recipient of a large amount of trickle support, was the biggest beneficiary of the large drop in the quota for round 35. In the round, the amount of trickle he received meant that the trickle from the official Goon/Imperium ballot was not needed to exceed the de facto win amount of 1662.

ExookiZ was the final wormhole candidate in the election. In clear evidence of western and Russian wormhole players not working together, ExookiZ only picked up 31 first place votes after the elimination of Tifida. More than half (473 out of 754) the ballots cast for Tifida expired. In order to win, ExookiZ needed as many votes as possible. Instead, he was knocked out in the next-to-last round by 5 votes.

Round 36:
Quota: 2446 (-37 from previous round, -211 from beginning quota)
Candidate eliminated: Tikktokk Tokkzikk (1661 votes)

Suitonia became the 9th candidate to reach quota. In the first 35 rounds, he picked up 700 first place votes, with the remainder coming from the other candidates' excess votes.

The Judge was the only candidate to win a seat on CSM 13 without reaching quota, with 2176 votes.


Summary: The election for CSM 13 was a rather pedestrian affair except for the drama around the disqualification of Creecher Viprio during the voting period. Three candidates, Steve Ronuken, Brisc Rubal, and Suitonia managed to win without the support of a major bloc. Six candidates managed to win due to bloc voting involving major null sec coalitions. Three from The Imperium (Aryth, Merkelchen, Innominate), two from Guardians of the Galaxy/Pandemic Horde (Sort Dragon, Killah Bee) and one from TEST/Legacy (Jin'taan).

The final candidate, The Judge, was a bit of an accident, winning mainly due to the disqualification of Creecher. His victory, while he was on the official Goon/Imperium ballot, was not directly a result of his placement on the ballot. But The Judge received enough general support from within The Imperium to win the final position anyway.

As for other candidates, they faced an uphill climb. The only other group that had an outside chance were wormholers, and they failed to work together to get a member on as they had in the first few elections involving the single transferable vote system.

Do the CSM 13 results foreshadow the outcome of the CSM 14 election? A surprise always seems to pop up somewhere. For now, I'll just wait until the future becomes the past and look at what happened.

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