STV? WTF?

Update 10 hours later... I am putting this update at the beginning of this post as it contains a correction.   What follows is a description of a single transferable vote system but not the one that CCP will use to conduct the CSM 8 election.  As CCP Fozzie pointed out to me on Twitter, the Wright system uses the Gregory method of transferring votes from elected/invalidated candidates to the remaining candidates in the system.  This eliminates the lottery system that is a feature of other single transferable vote methods.

For a more coherent explanation than just having someone tell you to look up the answer on Wikipedia (which is what I did), visit Mynnna's blog where he does a pretty good job of explaining things.

Just for the record, this will be my last post on the CSM 8 election until the results are announced at Fanfest.  Also for the record, for the first round of the election I endorsed Mike Azariah with all three accounts.  I plan on voting for Mike, and only for Mike, in the second round, leaving the other 13 slots blank.  If Mike does not qualify for the next round, I won't be voting.

What follows, since I don't believe in sending my mistakes down the memory hole, was my first attempt to understand and explain the new voting system.  Caution: after reading Mynnna's explanation, I now know how really bad it is.

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I have to admit something.  I considered boycotting the CSM8 election.  Not just not voting, but not writing anything on the blog about it either.  Why?  The new election system.  Because in many ways this election is now a lottery instead of an election.

So what changed from last year to this?  For the election next month CCP will utilize the Wright single vote transfer system.  Let's just say I'm not thrilled about its use.  Click through the link and the Wikipedia has an example of someone who would win in a "first past the post" election losing to someone who was no one's first choice.  But let me give an Eve example that could possibly occur if Goons slip up.  Yes, I know the Goons have a master plan so this won't happen, but play along.

Goonswarm has three candidates running this year: mynna, Kaleb Rysode, and Unforgiven Storm.  Let's say that turnout this year is a little better than last year.  To make the math easy, we'll use 60,000 votes cast.  Also assume that Goons and company can gather 10,000 votes.  Now assume Goons make a strategic mistake.  In their voter guide, everyone is instructed to vote mynnna first.  That makes sense since I think the goal is to get mynnna one of the two guaranteed slots to Iceland for the summits.  Good so far.  But then the choice for second and third position are left to the average Goon's choice, resulting in 5,000 second choice votes for Kaleb Rysode and 5,000 second choice votes for Unforgiven Storm.  Then the voters switch their preferences and make either Kaleb or Unforgiven their third choice.

Votes after Round 1 of selection:
mynnna - 10,000
Kaleb Rysode - 0
Unforgiven Storm - 0

Here is where the election gets tricky.  Now figure out the quota to see how many votes mynna needs to be elected.  The formula is:

The Droop Quota formula

So mynnna gets 4,001 votes and the other 5,999 are released to be applied to the second choice.  Here is where the lottery comes in.  Which 5,999 votes are released?  I have no idea.  Kaleb could wind up getting over 4,000.  Unforgiven could wind up with over 4,000.  Or both could wind up with less than 4,000.  In that case, whoever receives less votes will be eliminated first and then the other will wind up with a seat.  But remember that I used round numbers.  What happens in the event of a tie, like 3,000 to 3,000?  Random.  Number.  Generator.  Total lottery.

Remember, I am not complaining about who is going to win or who the system favors.  I'm just referring to the lottery type nature of who winds up on CSM 8.  Of course, in this scenario one of the Goonswarm candidates will wind up with only 1,998 votes.  If the Goons want three seats then they may team up with a couple of other blocs to gain the additional votes, but that is another post.

To tell the truth, if I haven't supported Mike Azariah the past couple of years I probably would chuck the whole CSM election and just wait until after Fanfest to start paying attention again.  But since I'm voting for Mike I'll pay attention enough to see if he can sneak through the null sec blocs and get a seat.