The CSM 16 Election: Bloc Ballots

Since the elections for EVE Online's player council began utilizing the modified Wright single-transferrable vote system in 2013, the biggest indicator of electoral success is placement on bloc ballots. Normally, a bloc ballot is synonymous with the major null sec coalitions. But not always. Given that over the last 7 elections receiving 2500 total votes guarantees a win, wormhole and low sec groups that band together can realistically hope to get one member on the CSM. 

If turnout doesn't increase dramatically this year, I think I can comfortably predict several of the winners. Yes, organization matters a lot. Here are the people I think should win based on placement on the ballots of the major null sec coalitions.

Merkelchen - Historically, first place on The Imperium's ballot is an automatic win. That shouldn't change this year.

Gobbins - The head of Pandemic Horde is naturally at the top of the Pandemic Horde ballot. With almost 21,926 members, getting a 10% turnout should ensure victory.

Innominate - Historically, the candidate in the #2 slot on The Imperium's ballot wins. Unless turnout increases dramatically, Innominate should win one more time.

Kenneth Feld - Over the years, Pandemic Legion has overperformed in CSM elections. But if Fraternity. & Winter Coalition turn out to vote close to their levels last year, Kenneth Feld should win. While Northern Coalition. and Pandemic Legion are not normally considered large factors in CSM elections, the combination along with even lukewarm support from Winter Co. membership should ensure reelection.

Vily - Test Alliance Please Ignore finally figured out how to elect a member to the Council of Stellar Management when Vily ran in 2019. I'm still wary of stating publicly that a TEST member will win, especially since Legacy Coalition is attempting to get two of its leaders onto the CSM. With only 16,908 members, is TEST disciplined enough to push Vily to victory. I'll go ahead and say yes.

Progodlegend - Unlike TEST, Brave Collective is very good when voting for CSM. I actually feel better about putting Progodlegend on the list than Vily. Progod is #2 on the Pandemic Horde ballot, which might mean he has a higher vote total than Vily at the end of the first round of the simulation. If I put Vily on this list, then I need to put Progodlegend as well. But I feel really uneasy posting that two members of TEST will win seats.

Brisc Rubal - Brisc is the one candidate not high up on a bloc ballot who I will list as winning, but he may not reach the quota this year. Yes, third place on The Imperium's ballot basically means nothing, especially if the candidacy of Baculus Orden means less players voting the strict Imperium ballot. Still, he's shown that having the vote of his alliance (The Initiative.) along with broad popularity can lead to victory. Brisc has won twice, and I won't predict he doesn't win a third time.

The other three seats - Honestly, I have no idea. Usually a streamer or YouTuber will win a seat. The best bet in that case is I Beast, also known as Lussy Lou. As for wormholers and low sec residents, I have no idea. When wormholers are in agreement, they can get a member on. So I'd say one member comes from either area of the game. High sec might get one player on the Council. This year's favorite is Mike Azeriah. 

Of course, outright vote buying can upend everything. If the turnout for the CSM 16 election is 40,000, then a player buying 3650 votes will win. For an election with a 30,000 voter turnout, the number of votes required decreases down to 2750 to ensure victory. With the existence of skill point farms, vote buying is a legitimate option for the game's very rich.

The Ballots - Below are the lists of ballots I've compiled. Maybe next year, the voting lists will come in handy for evaluating the prospects for candidates for CSM 17.

The Imperium

1. Merkelchen
2. Innominate
3. Brisc Rubal
4. Baculus Orden
5. Broodin
6. Angry Mustache
7. Micromancer
8. Xenuria
9. Suitonia
10. I Beast
    

Pandemic Horde

1. Gobbins
2. Progodlegend
3. Kenneth Feld
4. RonUSMC
5. Phantomite
6. Vily
7. Arsia Elkin
8. Uriel Paradisi Anteovnuecci
9. Reicher514
10. Seddow

Test Alliance Please Ignore

1. Vily
2. Progodlegend
3. RonUSMC
4. Gobbins
5. Phantomite
6. Arsia Elkin

Fraternity./Winter Coalition

1. Kenneth Feld
2. Rich Richman
3. Progodlegend
4. Gobbins
5. Seddow
6. Vily
7. Phantomite
8. Arsia Elkin
9. Angry Mustache
10. Maldavius

Brave Collective

1. Progodlegend
2. Vily
3. RonUSMC
4. Gobbins
5. Juris Doctor
6. Mark Ressurrectus
7. Kenneth Feld
8. Angry Mustache
9. Arisa Elkin
10. Seddow

Northern Coalition./Pandemic Legion

1. Kenneth Feld
2. Progodlegend
3. Gobbins
4. RonUSMC
5. Phantomite
6. Arsia Elkin

Rekking Crew

1. Seddow
2. White 0rchid
3. Phantomite
4. Suitonia
5. I Beast
6. Gobbins
7. Kenneth Field
8. Vily
9. Rixx Javix
10. Dr Spodumain

Stribog Clade (Pochven/Triglavian)

1. Maldavius
2. Brisc Rubal
3. Xeromus Plague
4. Micromancer
5. Broodin
6. Uriel Paradisi Anteovnuecci