A few weeks ago I pointed out how user counts began to decline in EVE Online at the time the pre-patch for The Burning Crusade hit the WoW Classic servers. At the time, I wasn't expecting as much of a dip as we've seen over the past month. While the number displayed on EVE-Offline.com is not precise, the average concurrent user count has dropped 3000 to 4000 accounts over the past month.
|A graph is worth 10 tons of salt|
Yesterday, Ripard Teg posted a new set of concurrency graphs to his archive site that displays the drop in starker terms. Also, according to Ripard's graph, the decline is closer to 5000 accounts logged in at once.
The last time EVE players witnessed a drop like the one occurring now happened in the three weeks after the launch of the World of Warcraft Classic servers in August 2019. The widespread disgruntlement with Blackout greased the skids for many players to wind up in Azeroth. Combine the migration with the traditional summer slump and EVE witnessed a decline of over 20% of players logged in at any one time.
|From Jester's Trek archive: ACU for 2019|
Are we witnessing something similar in 2021? I think so. History never repeats itself exactly, but I believe four factors will result in a continuing decline over the summer.
- World of Warcraft: Burning Crusade Classic
- Final Fantasy XIV
- RuneScape - Old School
- League of Legends
- Elder Scrolls Online
|From Jester's Trek archive, ACU for 2021 so far|