As always I begin with a look at Jester's average concurrent users chart. The seven-day moving average dropped below 22,000 average users at the beginning of the month but rose up to around 23,000 average users by the end of February. The 30-day average reflected the increased login activity by a small amount indicating a positive mid-term trend. But does that mean players out in space or are they just spinning their ships in the station having forgotten where to find the undock button?
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| The raw totals are misleading |
The raw totals might leave one who doesn't look at the calendar to believe activity really fell off in February. But observant readers will note February had 3 fewer days than January this year. Taking the daily average instead of monthly totals, we can see EVE is not dying any faster than normal.
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| The daily average totals for February |
The average number of NPCs killed by players, while down from historical measures, did rise by 2.9% month-over-month.
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| Year-over-year data from Dotlan Maps |
Next I looked at the year-over-year data and found something concerning. After 8 months and two null sec heavy expansions, yes player ship losses are up 5.1% YoY. But the number of NPCs players are killing is down 3.3% compared to February 2024. Sure, last year February had one extra day, but we were told in a dev blog last week that the mineral price index skyrocketed due to players abandoning mining for ratting.
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| The number of rats killed in null sec has decreased since July |
The Equinox sov system launched in June 2024 with the Equinox expansion. In the launch month an average of 7,275,132 NPCs exploded in null sec at the hands of players each day. Last month, the average had fallen to 6,360,389, or a 12.6% drop since the launch of Equinox sov 8 months ago.
Perhaps I am not looking at the same statistics as the game's designers. If the mineral price index jumped because of the sov changes, I would expect the number of NPCs exploding in null sec to increase, not decrease.
For now I want to read Wilhelm's take on the February monthly economic report before going any further. Of course, he announced he was going to cease looking at the destruction numbers, but maybe he'll have other insights on ISK faucets like NPC bounties that will help me make sense of things. Because I really don't want to conclude that CCP is back to the bad old days of misinterpreting the data.
