The WoW Token Two Weeks Later

Two weeks ago Blizzard introduced the WoW Token for sale on World of Warcraft's North American realms. A lot of people were surprised at the initial price point of $20 or 30,000 gold. I don't understand why, as the figure fell into line with the price that gold sellers were charging. But what about now? How has the WoW Token market price for gold fared against the prices charged by the sellers of WoW gold?

First, the WoW Token, after a brief climb to 31,218 gold on the first day, settled into a range between 20,000 and 24,500 gold starting on 10 April. That range put the Blizzard-approved price of WoW gold between $24.50-$30.00 USD for 30,000 gold.

When I've discussed CCP's approach in its War on Illicit RMT, I've described the price of PLEX as part of the "top down" element of its strategy to make illicit ISK and PLEX sales as unprofitable as possible. With the introduction of the WoW Token, gold sellers now have to compete directly with Blizzard when selling gold. Worse, from the gold sellers' point of view, they have to offer a substantial discount due to the possiblity of Blizzard catching buyers and taking action against them, such as seizing all of the purchased gold. I call the difference between the official price and the price gold sellers offer the "hazard discount".

WoW gold prices on Earthen Ring (Horde)

So what is the hazard discount needed to entice WoW players to buy illicit gold? In an effort to determine that figure, I surveyed 12 websites that sell WoW gold that I found either through Google Ads or listed on Google. I know that each website is actively competing for gold sales, as each has posted at least 4 price changes over the past two weeks. The graph above displays the lowest, median, and highest prices for 30,000 pieces of WoW gold found on the twelve websites. As a point of comparison, I also graphed the lowest daily sell price for WoW gold purchased using WoW Tokens, converting the U.S. dollar value to the amount required to buy 30,000 gold in order to make the comparison clear.

After looking at two weeks' worth of data, I still can't determine the answer. The price of illicit ISK has fallen the last 12 days. The only price pressure that the WoW Token has put on the gold sellers is existing. But that's enough, because the gold sellers are still attempting to find the sweet spot. Or are they? I get the sense that the gold sellers are losing a considerable amount of business to Blizzard. But are the gold sellers still competing with Blizzard, or are they competing with each other over winning market share of a reduced clientele?

One thing enabling illicit gold prices to continue to decline is that the gold farmers/botters have not decreased their activity. In a thread on the Honorbuddy forums, one gold farmer was complaining that prices offered by wholesalers had declined to $0.12-$0.14 / 1000 gold. From what I gather, that is an extremely low price. The prices are getting low enough that some farmers are getting frustrated.

A disgruntled gold farmer

So far, the WoW gold selling sites have benefitted from a compliant farming/botting community. Even so, the gold sellers will eventually hit the limit to what gold farmers/botters are willing to accept. I believe at that point we will see the price finally stabilize. At that point Blizzard can then ratchet up the pressure on the botters and farmers and convince them that the small amount they are earning isn't worth the hassle and see a lot of them leave the field.

At this point, Blizzard appears well-positioned to knock a lot of RMTers out of the business. But even then, that is only a first step. With less competition, those remaining can sort matters out and create a new price and supply equilibrium.  Remember, the WoW Token, just like PLEX, is not a quick fix to the problem of illicit RMT. But with enough time, Blizzard can hurt the wallets of the gold sellers.