First, let's take a look at Impass. On Tuesday, Circle-of-Two only had sovereignty over three systems.
In a 72-hour period, CO2 managed to take sovereignty over an additional 8 systems and 2 outposts.
The latest situation map shows that Stainfraggin Coalition forces are still aggressively entosising sovereignty structures, but Stainwagon forces are fighting back by entosising structures of their own in six systems. I am not sure how successful Stainwagon's efforts will prove, as I believe their main defensive effort will take place in Feythabolis.
On Tuesday, SOLAR FLEET's low key effort in southern Feythabolis began to pick up steam. Between Tuesday and today, SOLAR, joined by DRONE WALKERS, made a big push, with DRONE WALKERS dropping intfrastructure hubs in many of SOLAR's systems. The campaign in Feythabolis was conducted a bit differently, concentrating on capturing outposts even if Stainwagon possessed iHubs in the system.
SOLAR and DW made great strides in securing the pipe between C-PEWN in Esoteria and OKEO-X in Omist. SOLAR now controls 7 of the 10 outposts in the constellations of 3-PC31 and 42-WDG. However, notice all the blue on the map now. Over the course of yesterday, Stainwagon managed to reinforce 3 outposts, 3 TCUs, and 5 iHubs, with the timers coming out on Saturday.
From the posts on r/eve, Stainwagon sounds like it wants to make a final stand in Esoteria, making the attacking forces pay for every system taken on the march to the region. I don't know how many forces the Russian coalition will divert to Impass, but yesterday's activity indicates Stainwagon intends to hold their ground in southern Feythabolis.